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The La Plata County Economy

Southwest Business Forum January 11, 2008 Fort Lewis College’s 16 th Annual Focus on Our Future: Business and Economics Sponsored by Wells Fargo San Juan Market. The La Plata County Economy. Region 9 Population. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Region 9 Population Growth.

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The La Plata County Economy

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  1. Southwest Business ForumJanuary 11, 2008Fort Lewis College’s 16th Annual Focus on Our Future: Business and EconomicsSponsored by Wells Fargo San Juan Market

  2. The La Plata County Economy

  3. Region 9 Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  4. Region 9 Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  5. Region 9 Annual Wages Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available.

  6. Region 9 Annual Wage Growth Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available.

  7. Region 9 Unemployment Rate Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available.

  8. Major Industries in Region 9 Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

  9. Tourism Tourism Includes: Airport Passengers Train Ridership Mesa Verde Visitors Lodger’s Tax Collected Skier Boarder Visits

  10. Airport Passenger Activity Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e) Source: Durango - La Plata County Airport e = estimate

  11. Train Passenger Activity Percent Change By Year (2001-2007e) Source: Durango & Silverton Narrow Gauge Railroad e = estimate

  12. Mesa Verde Visitors Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e) Source: National Park Service Public Use Statistics Office e = estimate

  13. Lodger’s Tax Revenue (in 1995 $s) Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e) Sources: City of Durango and La Plata County e = estimate

  14. Skier/Boarder Visits Sources: National Ski Association and Annual Reports e = estimate with regression

  15. Retail Sales(Adjusted for Inflation) An indicator of tourism activity as well as population growth.

  16. Retail Sales (in 1995 $s) Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e) Source: Colorado Department of Revenue e = estimate

  17. Employment Indicates job growth in the economy.

  18. EmploymentPercent Change By Year (1995-2007e) Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment e = estimate

  19. 2008 Tourism, Retail, & Employment Outlook • Tourism: Dependent upon discretionary spending • Retail: Cushioned by local spending • Employment: Stable unemployment; lower wages

  20. Agriculture Includes Calf Prices and Alfalfa Hay Prices – adjusted for inflation. A better measure would be sales, but these numbers are not available.

  21. Alfalfa Hay Prices Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e) Source:U. S. Department of Agriculture - Economics, Statistics and Market Information System e = estimate

  22. Calf Prices, Adjusted Dollar Value per Cut Weight Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e) Source:U. S. Department of Agriculture - Economics, Statistics and Market Information System e = estimate

  23. 2008 Agriculture Outlook • Increased prices in field-based commodity prices • Drought across nation • Corn-based ethanol • Decreased prices in calf prices • Not passing input costs to consumer • Ranchers/farmers not buying calves with increased feed costs

  24. Industrial Kilowatt-Hours Used as an indicator of industrial activity in the county. Most industrial usage of electricity in the county is to compress natural gas for transmission through gas pipelines

  25. Industrial Kilowatt Hours Percent Change By Year (1995-2007e) Source: La Plata Electric Association Inc. e = estimate

  26. 2007-2008 Observations for Oil & Gas • Given the current regulations in the oil & gas industry, the region is producing natural gas near full capacity • Certain market pundits are calling this the year of natural gas

  27. Fort Lewis College Enrollment The college stabilizes the economy because of higher enrollment in the fall and winter months. This offsets some of the decline in tourism during this time period.

  28. Fort Lewis College Enrollment (Fall) Percent Change By Year (1995-2007) Source: Fort Lewis College

  29. 2008 Fort Lewis College Outlook • Increased admission standards at FLC • Comparable with UC-Boulder and CSU • Slight dip in enrollment last several years • Intermediate-term goal is 5,000 students

  30. Residential Real Estate Median Price for La Plata County is used in the index.

  31. Median Home Price of Single-Family Homes in La Plata County

  32. Percentage Change in Price of Single-Family Homes in La Plata County

  33. Average Days on Market of Single-Family Homes in La Plata County

  34. Median Home Price of Condos/Town Homes in La Plata County

  35. Total Number of Transactions of Condos/Town Homes in La Plata County

  36. Median Home Price Change of Single-Family Homes in In-Town Durango

  37. Days on Market of Single-Family Homes in In-Town Durango

  38. Building Permits This indicator uses the adjusted dollar valuation of the properties for which permits were issued—thereby measuring the dollar value (as assessed) of new construction in La Plata County.

  39. Building Permits (Construction) Percent Change By Year (2002-2007e) Sources: La Plata County Building Department, City of Durango Planning and Community Development Department e = estimate

  40. 2008 Real Estate Outlook • Rest of the nation bracing for worst real estate correction since the Depression • National builders report a bottom is not in place • Single-family homes = healthy correction • Condos/Town Homes = less healthy correction • Building permits = significant decline

  41. Bank Deposits An important indicator of the economic health of the community. Also an indicator of the ability of local banks to make loans to consumers and business borrowers.

  42. Bank Deposits (Unadjusted) Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

  43. InflationDurango Price Index (DPI) Monitors the change in the price of goods and services in our region Durango Price Index Adjust Denver CPI for Durango housing and income levels Assumes similar other expenditure patterns as Denver consumers

  44. Durango Price Index versus Denver CPI

  45. Annual Inflation Rate: Durango vs. Denver

  46. Weight of Housing Costs: Durango vs. Denver

  47. 2008 Inflation Outlook • Durango housing rents will probably increase • Increased expenses in commodity prices • Decreased consumer spending

  48. Our Web Address: http://soba.fortlewis.edu/econoweb/

  49. Thank You!

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