Transitions

1. There is no energy shortage, there is no energy crisis, there is a crisis of ignorance R. Buckminster Fuller It is a common defect of men in fair weather to take no thought of storms Machiavelli An addict cannot force his pusher to change his criminal habits. L. Kleveman Transitions Our civilization has achieved marvels due to cheap fossil fuels. Now we test our true measure. How will we be remembered?

2. What Transitions? • Demographic transition • NOT ONLY developing world problem. Developed world esp. NA burdening ALL w/ promise of hi-tech solutions that haven’t come • Only prosperous countries ”fix” pollution • “fix” often by exporting waste activities to developing world • Daunting complexities are defeating even developed world • “science” has failed 80% of humanity. Seeding our civilization’s destruction, but also preserving more for the next? • Energy transition • Short term choices: hard & soft path (bet on nukes because of Kyoto) • Waiting for fusion. Will the next civilization be interplanetary? • Transition is MUCH BIGGER than Apollo program … need • Mental transition: most fundamental! • From planet restricted exp. growth to powerdown

3. Conserve our Way Through Demographic Transition? If conservation was the answer, then Bangladesh would be the most prosperous nation on earth. J. Pournelle

4. How Much Longer for Exp. Growth? How Much Longer to Hubbert Peak/Transition? • Ongoing regional collapse • All projections need unproved technologies to extend depletion. No plan B • e.g. North Sea UK Norway

5. ANWR’s Role When US demand contracts because of deep recession/depression, ANWR will maintain domestic supply for 15 yrs

6. Remainder in volatile regions of ancient feuds World Prospects Experience from 70+ countries is that Conventional oil drops 6-14% annually after peak!

7. China sucks ‘em dry India This trend is unsustainable. Conventional wisdom says China growth will soon slow dramatically, regulated by tight oil. BUT 1. China building nukes, dams, & NG deals w/ e.g. Iran as fast as possible. 2. Has huge US debt & $ holdings. Hence $ collapse most likely. How respond? But They Have No Excess Oil Extraction Capacity!

8. Still much growth possible in military budget, necessary to confront Iran & esp. China over resources. Military draft for occupation forces? US budget problems due to tax cuts & imports, not military budget. … an Expensive Contest

9. Mayor Black Man, Revolutionary United Front, Sierra Leone “My life was shit and it was going to short anyway. So I took up a gun to have a bit of fun before I die. I have nothing to lose.”

10. Angry, Unemployed Young Men Germany • US’s colossal energy waste, alliances w/ corrupt leaders, & global media control targets us, underscores economic disparity • Devil’s Tears (oil) / Breath (NG) drive regional corruption & conflicts, produces Blowback • Religion fans the conflagration M F 2050 w/ cheap oil millions Pakistan

11. No More Oil Exploring, Just Consolidation Switching rigs fast from oil to NG

12. More US Nukes? • Make sense only if most housing retrofitted for electrical heat • Displaces oil & NG. But, displaced is unsuitable for vehicles • Massive electrification of road transport necessary, more use of trains • Improved battery technology for short trips • Electric-gas hybrids (reverse of today) • Once thru fuel-cycle moves to reprocessing, (breeders?) • But needless complexities (fission prob. beyond our wisdom anyway) if dispense w/ world growth (cancer)

13. But Nukes Making H2 is Stupid H2 production is good use of wind

14. Cheaper. But wind & other non-depleting can’t maintain exp. growth, just slow decline Wind is Exponentiating • All Europe’s power from two 5 MW turbines every km2 over 200x200 km shown (err, 80,000) Such a concentrated facility is VERY vulnerable

15. Advancing the Transition • Impose C tax, or at least price fuels to discourage use of those soon scarce • Focus on electricity grid transport for max flexibility • Long-distance, High-Voltage DC transmission (Fuller world grid) Demand demo • Some in situ electricity generation & local energy storage for security. Spread to developing world! • Smart machines programmed to draw grid power during off-peak times. Minimizes storage & peaking powerplants • Powerdown, buy time for mental transition

16. When? world oil US NG NOW! < 5 yrs

17. Will the Developing World Wait? • Don’t understand their coming crisis either (food production) & have no means to • See us grasping what is left, shutting them out • Democrat/Republican govt responds same way • Historical notions of our “peace to all mankind” are obsolete. US becoming despised as wasters/imperialists • “Stateless terrorists” will soon have biowar means to bring us down • Our WMDs do not work against them • Confronting them on own terms will further militarize US • Religious nuts on both sides fan flames exactly when extreme rationality is critical

18. 2 Routes Down the Slope • Endless War from failing Empire • Carter Doctrine, Rumsfeld 10-30-30 policy • “Preserve American Way of Life” • Cooperation • E.g. Uppsala Oil Depletion Protocol • Recognize underlying cause, rationalize response • Educate, manage decline/transition • Plan for the worse and hope for the best Stay mentally agile & alert, seek alternatives to corporate media for data to minimize brainwashing. While pursuing dreams, avoid debt traps and prepare for hard times. A bad storm is coming, few are ready, and little of what fills our lives today will be relevant.

19. Was this inevitable after we discovered the Devil’s Tears & Breath?