Higher Education in the 21st Century

1. Higher Education in the 21st Century The 21st Century James L. Morrison Professor of Educational Leadership UNC-Chapel Hill TODAY The 21st Century

2. Environmental Scanning • Broadscale—local through global • Comprehensive • Social • Technological • Economic • Environmental • Political • Continuous

3. Strategic Intelligence • Identify signals of change • Gather information • Evaluate information • Make decisions to shape the future

4. Change Drivers • The Maturation of America • The Mosaic Society • Globalization • Economic Restructuring • The Information Technology-Based Economy • Information Technology

5. Older Americans to Experience Fastest Growth (1990 to 2000) Source: US. Bureau of the Census

6. Distribution of US. Population by Race and Origin (1900-2050) Source: Business Horizons

7. Immigration • Between 1970 and 2000 New York City’s population will shift from 2/3 white to 1/3 • In 1970, 5%of U.S. residents born elsewhere; in 1996, 10% • Top sources: Mexico, the Philippines, China, Cuba, India

8. The Enrollment Pipeline High School Graduates, 1979-2004 (millions of students) 3.0 2.8 We Are Here! 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 2004 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 source: WICHE

9. An Aging Clientele for Higher Education

10. Crisis in College Costs Per-student costs keep going up ... Sources: The News & Observer (June 18, 1997, Raleigh, NC) and RAND for the Council for Aid to Education

11. Crisis in College Costs Per-student costs keep going up ... … And colleges face a growing shortage of funds. Sources: The News & Observer (June 18, 1997, Raleigh, NC) and RAND for the Council for Aid to Education

12. Implications • An increasingly diverse society • Increasing student enrollment • An aging student population • Concern about costs/productivity

13. Economic • Globalization • Economic Restructuring

14. Globalization • Movement of capital, products, technology, information continue at record pace • Global economy • Regional free trade • Multinational corporations • Economic competition

15. Economic • Continued organizational downsizing • corporate • governmental • educational • Virtual companies • Outsourcing • Responsibility-centered management • Increased number of home-based businesses

16. Percent of Firms Downsizing by Business Category Source: Chicago Tribune, August 21, 1995

17. During the decade of the 80’s, 46% of the companies listed in the “Fortune 500” disappeared.

18. The Department of Labor estimates that by the year 2000 at least 44% of all workers will be in data services (e.g., gathering, processing, retrieving, or analyzing information).

19. From 1980 to 1994, the U.S. contingent workforce—temps, self-employed, consultants—increased 57%

20. Fading are the 9-5 workdays, lifetime jobs, predictable, hierarchical relationships, corporate culture security blankets, and, for a large and growing sector of the workforce, the workplace itself (replacedby a cybernetics “workspace”).

21. Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even career-hopping will become the norm.

22. “Diplomas decline as degrees of separation in the workforce” USA Today Cover Story January 3, 1997

23. Implications • Globalization • Economic Restructuring • Competency Assessment • Certification of Competency

24. What Lies Ahead in Technology • Diminution • Simulations • Virtual Reality • WWW • Low-Earth-Orbit Satellites • Web TV • Net PC • Expert Systems

25. “You don’t turn it on. You open it and turn the pages.”

26. The cost of computing power drops roughly 30% every year, and microchips are doubling in performance power every 18 months.

27. You give the birthday kid a Saturn, made by Sega, the gamemaker. It runs on a higher-performance processor than the original 1976 Cray supercomputer.

28. Today’s average consumers wear more computing power on their wrists than existed in the entire world before 1961.

29. In 1991, companies spent more money on computing and communications gear than the combined monies spent on industrial, mining, farm, and construction equipment.

30. Today, 65% of all workers use some type of information technology in their jobs. By 2000, this will increase to 95%.

33. I very much doubt that we’re the only family on the block without a Web page.

34. New Technologies • Internet Relay Chats • MUSE’s (Multiple User Simulated Environmentsinterprets postscript files • allows telecommuting co-publishers of a site

35. Signals • Educational courses and programs are being produced by corporations • Cable and phone companies are consolidating to provide interactive multimedia programming

36. Signals • A third of Americans have a computer in the home; 40% of these have modems • An increasing number of students want and need non-traditional, flexible schedules

37. Signals • Certification monopoly at risk • employers concerned about competency • employers relying less on diplomas • Outcomes assessment coming on line--Western Governors University

38. What do these signals imply for effective organization and functioning of leading edge institutions in the 21st century?