450 likes | 977 Views
Higher Education in the 21st Century. The 21st Century. James L. Morrison Professor of Educational Leadership UNC-Chapel Hill. TODAY. The 21st Century. Environmental Scanning. Broadscale—local through global Comprehensive Social Technological Economic Environmental Political
E N D
Higher Education in the 21st Century The 21st Century James L. Morrison Professor of Educational Leadership UNC-Chapel Hill TODAY The 21st Century
Environmental Scanning • Broadscale—local through global • Comprehensive • Social • Technological • Economic • Environmental • Political • Continuous
Strategic Intelligence • Identify signals of change • Gather information • Evaluate information • Make decisions to shape the future
Change Drivers • The Maturation of America • The Mosaic Society • Globalization • Economic Restructuring • The Information Technology-Based Economy • Information Technology
Older Americans to Experience Fastest Growth (1990 to 2000) Source: US. Bureau of the Census
Distribution of US. Population by Race and Origin (1900-2050) Source: Business Horizons
Immigration • Between 1970 and 2000 New York City’s population will shift from 2/3 white to 1/3 • In 1970, 5%of U.S. residents born elsewhere; in 1996, 10% • Top sources: Mexico, the Philippines, China, Cuba, India
The Enrollment Pipeline High School Graduates, 1979-2004 (millions of students) 3.0 2.8 We Are Here! 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 2004 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 source: WICHE
Crisis in College Costs Per-student costs keep going up ... Sources: The News & Observer (June 18, 1997, Raleigh, NC) and RAND for the Council for Aid to Education
Crisis in College Costs Per-student costs keep going up ... … And colleges face a growing shortage of funds. Sources: The News & Observer (June 18, 1997, Raleigh, NC) and RAND for the Council for Aid to Education
Implications • An increasingly diverse society • Increasing student enrollment • An aging student population • Concern about costs/productivity
Economic • Globalization • Economic Restructuring
Globalization • Movement of capital, products, technology, information continue at record pace • Global economy • Regional free trade • Multinational corporations • Economic competition
Economic • Continued organizational downsizing • corporate • governmental • educational • Virtual companies • Outsourcing • Responsibility-centered management • Increased number of home-based businesses
Percent of Firms Downsizing by Business Category Source: Chicago Tribune, August 21, 1995
During the decade of the 80’s, 46% of the companies listed in the “Fortune 500” disappeared.
The Department of Labor estimates that by the year 2000 at least 44% of all workers will be in data services (e.g., gathering, processing, retrieving, or analyzing information).
From 1980 to 1994, the U.S. contingent workforce—temps, self-employed, consultants—increased 57%
Fading are the 9-5 workdays, lifetime jobs, predictable, hierarchical relationships, corporate culture security blankets, and, for a large and growing sector of the workforce, the workplace itself (replacedby a cybernetics “workspace”).
Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even career-hopping will become the norm.
“Diplomas decline as degrees of separation in the workforce” USA Today Cover Story January 3, 1997
Implications • Globalization • Economic Restructuring • Competency Assessment • Certification of Competency
What Lies Ahead in Technology • Diminution • Simulations • Virtual Reality • WWW • Low-Earth-Orbit Satellites • Web TV • Net PC • Expert Systems
The cost of computing power drops roughly 30% every year, and microchips are doubling in performance power every 18 months.
You give the birthday kid a Saturn, made by Sega, the gamemaker. It runs on a higher-performance processor than the original 1976 Cray supercomputer.
Today’s average consumers wear more computing power on their wrists than existed in the entire world before 1961.
In 1991, companies spent more money on computing and communications gear than the combined monies spent on industrial, mining, farm, and construction equipment.
Today, 65% of all workers use some type of information technology in their jobs. By 2000, this will increase to 95%.
I very much doubt that we’re the only family on the block without a Web page.
New Technologies • Internet Relay Chats • MUSE’s (Multiple User Simulated Environmentsinterprets postscript files • allows telecommuting co-publishers of a site
Signals • Educational courses and programs are being produced by corporations • Cable and phone companies are consolidating to provide interactive multimedia programming
Signals • A third of Americans have a computer in the home; 40% of these have modems • An increasing number of students want and need non-traditional, flexible schedules
Signals • Certification monopoly at risk • employers concerned about competency • employers relying less on diplomas • Outcomes assessment coming on line--Western Governors University
What do these signals imply for effective organization and functioning of leading edge institutions in the 21st century?