SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT LOOKING INTO THE FUTURE

1. SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTLOOKING INTO THE FUTURE David Banister Transport Studies Unit School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford

2. The Big Issues From John Beddington’s lecture at Oxford University 23rd June 2009

3. The Facts – tCO2 2006 Total Transport Global 4.37 1.07 EU27 9.28 2.53 US 19.45 6.80 Target 2.00 0.75 China 4.07 0.45 India 1.07 0.10 The New Imperative Estimates of 390 CO2 ppmv 2009

4. A Pathway to 90% Reduction by 2050

5. 2080s 50% probability level: central estimate Change in winter precipitation (%) Medium emissions = +19-21% Change in summer precipitation (%) Medium emissions = - 21-31% Change in annual mean temperature (ºC) Medium emissions = +3.5C UKCIP09 Projections

6. Oxford – CO2 emissions by sector (2002) and from transport (2003) Rajat Gupta (2005) Oxford Climate Change Action Plan, November

7. Action at the LTP Level • Top down – international agreement v bottom up – implementation and action • Stakeholders and responsibilities – public and private sectors • Technological optimism and behavioural change – climate change fatigue • Short term immediacy and longer term speculation

8. Sustainable Mobility Paradigm MODE Use of public transport, walk and cycle EFFICIENCY Load factors Fuels Efficiency Design DISTANCE Shorten trip lengths Land use planning TRIPS Substitute or not make them Sustainable mobility explores ways of travelling less rather than travelling more, to overcome the problems of capacity, and also to address the environmental imperative.

9. 1. Reducing the need to travel – substitution • Trip no longer made – replaced by non travel activity or substituted through technology

10. 2. Transport Policy Measures – Modal Shift • Promotion of walk and cycle • Slowing down of urban traffic • Demand management • Investment in public transport • Flexible use of streets • No rebound effects

11. 3. Land Use Policy Measures – Distance Reduction • Build sustainable mobility into patterns of urban form and layout • Increase densities and concentration – mixed use developments, housing location The New Oxford Cancer Centre at the Churchill and Susan Roaf’s Eco Home

12. 4. Technological Innovation – Efficiency Increase • Best available technology – lean burn and plug in hybrids • Alternative fuels – renewable electricity and Biofuels (?) • Restrictions – clean parts of the city • Ecological driving and slower speeds • Increase load factors

13. Role for Transport Transport = 25% CO2 and rising to 66% by 2050? Virtuous Pathways Policy Objective Reductions in CO2 emissions and less carbon Less Pollution Health Benefits Less motorised travel Slower Travel Fewer Accidents More Active Transport Individual and Societal Benefits Kyoto 2 Targets Individual and Societal Benefits Health Benefits Less Obesity Transport Contributing Fully to the -80% 2050 Target Individual and Societal Benefits Environmental Benefits

14. Strategic Challenges • Climate change challenge – links to current travel patterns in Oxfordshire. • Increases in mobility – impacts of transport investments on travel and location decisions on transport. • Balance between economic, social and environmental elements of sustainability.