Climate change and fisheries: WorldFish Center research and policy priorities

1. Climate change and fisheries:WorldFish Center research and policy priorities Edward Allison Allison Perry Marie-Caroline Badjeck

2. Climate-induced changes in fisheries systems • Ecological • Species distributions • Timing of reproduction, migration, abundance • Physiology • Recruitment • Behaviour • Sex ratios • Calcification rates • Upwelling timing & latitude • Habitat loss • Coral bleaching frequency & severity • Disease • Algal blooms • Fisheries • Productivity • Distribution • Species availability • Timing Physical • Temperature • Sea level • pH • Salinity • Currents • Nutrients • Oxygen • Ice cover • Turbulence & mixing • Wind speed & direction • Storm frequency & intensity • Evaporation • Precipitation • Runoff • Days at sea • Accidents • Loss of harbours, homes • Damage to productive assets • Increased insurance costs • Livelihood diversification • Ability to plan seasonal livelihood activities

3. WorldFish climate change research • Diagnosing and mapping climate change vulnerability in fishery and aquaculture-dependent communities and regions • Understanding adaptive responses and strategies in fishery and aquaculture-dependent systems • Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to respond and adapt

4. Vulnerability to climate change Vulnerability • the degree to which a system is susceptible to climate change, and is unable to cope with the negative effects of climate change IPCC 2001, 2007

5. Assessing global economic vulnerability Global climate predictions Physical processes Ecological processes Fisheries dynamics Where will climate change impacts on fisheries have the greatest social and economic consequences?

6. Assessing global economic vulnerability EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which countries are exposed to predicted climate change SENSITIVITY Degree to which economies & people are likely to be affected by fishery-related changes POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking into account planned adaptation ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Abilities and resources to cope with climate-related changes VULNERABILITY

7. Vulnerability assessment data Exposure • 2050 surface temperatures (HadCM3 model, 2 scenarios) Sensitivity (Fisheries dependency – marine and inland) • Landings and contribution of fisheries to employment, exports and dietary protein (FAO, World Bank) Adaptive capacity • Human development indices (health, education, governance, and economy size) Vulnerability • 132 nations • Robust to different methods of weighting and combination

8. Greatest climate change exposure Very low Low Moderate High No data • Northern parts of Europe, Asia, the Americas

9. Strongest dependence on fisheries Very low Low Moderate High No data • Asia, Africa, South America

10. Lowest adaptive capacity Very low Low Moderate High No data • Africa, South Asia

11. Greatest vulnerability Very low Low Moderate High No data • Africa, Asia, north-western South America, Russia, Ukraine • 2/3 of most vulnerable are Least Developed Countries Allison et al. (2009)

12. Highly vulnerable regions Africa • 2/3 of most vulnerable countries • Very low adaptive capacity • High nutritional dependence • Marine and inland production closely related to climatic variation Asia • High fisheries dependence • Heavily exploited marine ecosystems (e.g. coral reefs) • Major river fisheries highly vulnerable to climate change South America • High exposure • Climate-sensitive upwelling fisheries

13. Global marine fisheries vulnerability QUEST-Fish • Coastal ocean physical-ecological dynamics • Primary production • Fish production • Global food and fishmeal markets • Socio-economic vulnerability (WFC) • Vulnerability assessments: • Global • Regional (Southeast Asia, West Africa) • Non-climatic drivers of change: • Population, trade, economic, and policy scenarios

14. Threatened coral reefs Ωaragonite at CO2 = 550 ppm

15. Reef loss: threats to people • Reef ecosystem goods and services • Food, income, employment, coastal protection, building materials, tourism, exports • Poverty and reef-dependent regions • 2/3 of coral reef nations are developing countries • 1/4 of these are Least Developed Countries • Small island states • High population density, limited freshwater resources, sensitive economies

16. Vulnerability of reef-dependent regions • Coral Triangle • >120 million people dependent on marine resources for food and livelihoods • Climate change adaptation in the Coral Triangle • Social vulnerability assessments: • National-scale (6 countries) • Finer-scale : Philippines Indonesia Solomon Islands

17. Assessing reef-related vulnerability EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which reefs are exposed to predicted climate change (e.g. bleaching) SENSITIVITY Degree to which economies & people are likely to be affected by climate-related changes on reefs POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking into account planned adaptation ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Abilities and resources to cope with climate-related changes VULNERABILITY

18. Sensitivity: Reef dependence People more reef-dependent where reefs represent greater: • Share of economic activity • Contribution to individual/household income • Contribution to community/regional/national economy • Source of employment • Number/proportion of people with reef-dependent livelihoods • Ranking of reef-related livelihood activities • Source of nutrients • Proportion of dietary protein from reef-associated sources • Quantity of reef-associated food consumed

19. Adaptive capacity Human development indicators • Economy (poverty, inequality, debts) • Health (life expectancy, child mortality) • Education (literacy, school enrolment) • Governance (e.g. stability, effectiveness, corruption) Context-specific indicators • Governance (MPAs, LMMAs) • Alternative natural resources (other fisheries, agriculture, freshwater) • Infrastructure (e.g. roads) • Isolation (e.g. distance from urban centres) • Remittances

20. WorldFish climate change research • Diagnosing climate change vulnerability in fishery and aquaculture-dependent communities and regions • Understanding adaptive responsesand strategies in fishery and aquaculture-dependent systems • Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to respond and adapt

21. WorldFish climate change research • Integrated protected area co-management – supporting environmental governance, climate change mitigation and adaptation (Bangladesh) • Strengthening management and enhancing community resilience to climate change (Lake Chilwa Basin, Malawi) • Poverty alleviation and mangrove conservation: Carbon offsets as payments for mangrove ecosystem services (Solomon Islands) • Adapting farming systems and aquaculture production systems to climate variability and change (Bangladesh, Vietnam)

22. WorldFish climate change research • Understanding impacts of climate change in the Nile delta (Egypt) • Food security implications (crops) • Breeding of salt-tolerant fish strains • Projecting future water supply and demand (Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia) • Building resilience through community-based adaptive management • Integrating sustainable small-scale aquaculture into small-holder farms

23. WorldFish climate change research • Diagnosing climate change vulnerability in fishery and aquaculture-dependent communities and regions • Understanding adaptive responsesand strategies in fishery and aquaculture-dependent systems • Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to respond and adapt

24. Reducing vulnerability by building the capacity to respond and adapt • Lobbying for recognition of fishery and aquaculture sector vulnerabilities in global and regional climate change policy processes (e.g. UNFCC COP 15, Copenhagen, December 2009) • Facilitating the inclusion of the fishery sector in national plans of adaptation (NAPA) in WorldFish programme and partner countries • Engaging with partners to test and refine community and household-level adaptive processes • Link fishery sector actors at different levels with funding for adaptation and mitigation schemes