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Jobs Diagnostic and Tools

Jobs Diagnostic and Tools. Michael Weber & Dino Merotto. The Approach: Jobs Diagnostic Guidelines. Standard Data Tools Guided Enquiry Country Context and Benchmarking to check outcomes are within normal ranges. Interpret the symptoms using other evidence Is it a demand or supply problem?

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Jobs Diagnostic and Tools

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  1. Jobs Diagnostic and Tools Michael Weber & Dino Merotto

  2. The Approach: Jobs Diagnostic Guidelines • Standard Data Tools • Guided Enquiry • Country Context and Benchmarking to check outcomes are within normal ranges • Interpret the symptoms using other evidence • Is it a demand or supply problem? • What’s the likely cause? • What is the market or policy failure? • Can the constraint be directly removed? • Review research for solutions (solutions notes) • Consider political economy

  3. Data & Tools for Symptoms & Benchmarks To Check for Abnormalitiesusing guided enquiry Tools and Videos for Download • JobStructure Tool • Jobs Group Demography Tool

  4. Data & Tools for Symptoms & BenchmarksTo Check for Abnormalities using guided enquiry 3. Jobs Group Context Tool 4. Jobs Diagnostic Labor Demand Tool 5. Jobs Diagnostic Labor Supply Tool

  5. “How?”: A guided enquiry for the jobs diagnostic – Macro Analysis Guided Enquiry: Economy-wide Symptoms

  6. Macro Excel Based Tools – Assess Drivers of Structural Change, Benchmarks Job Structures Tool – Benchmark Growth and Structural Change

  7. Job Structures Tool Benchmark Growth and Structural Change Macro Excel Based Tools – Sectoral Decompositions Structural Change

  8. Macro Excel-Based Tools – Asses the trends in demography 2. Jobs Group Demography Tool

  9. 3. Job Group Context Tool – to benchmark policy

  10. A guided enquiry for the jobs diagnostic Business dynamics 4. Demand Side Outputs as Symptoms For benchmarking firm structure, dynamics and performance

  11. Step-wise guided enquiry – Demand side 4. Demand Side Outputs as Symptoms For Benchmarking firm structure, dynamics and performance Wrap up 5. step 4. step 3. step 2. step Benchmark to identify anomalies Interpretation To Identify Challenges 1. step

  12. 4. Demand Side Outputs as Symptoms For Benchmarking

  13. A guided enquiry for the jobs diagnosticSupply side analysis 5. Supply Side Outputs as Symptoms for benchmarking

  14. Step-wise guided enquiry – Supply side Wrap up 5. step 4. step 3. step Benchmark to identify anomalies Interpretation To Identify Challenges 2. step 1. step

  15. Standard Supply-side Outputs using LFS/LSMS

  16. JOIN – Global Jobs Indicators Database Development Data Hub with Country Totals and Disaggregation Current versionhttps://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/global-jobs-indicators-database-join

  17. Coming: JOIN Global Jobs Indicators Database Online

  18. The Approach in Practice in Uganda

  19. Key Finding: Decline in quality of Jobs Average hours worked increased in both rural and urban areas, especially in services between 2012-2016.Median real earnings dropped markedly, especially for those in rural services and rural industryReturns to education (still quite high) are falling

  20. Key Finding: Agriculture remains an important first job for youth Structural change happened more for the age groups 25-34 and over 35.Most youth are still employed in agriculture In 2016, 72% of youth were in agriculture And 22% worked in services In 1999, 81% of youth were in agriculture And 15% worked in services

  21. Ugandans are not all job creators - Waged Employment is rising Self employment is falling as a share of total employment as waged employment rises with the growing economy (a normal symptom based on global comparisons)

  22. Rural v Urban Terms of Trade favor farming since 2008

  23. Large and medium productivity is showing mean reversion and is declining on average Relative differences in productivity are as expected (large more productive). Average Firm Productivity is not rising much

  24. Recommendations for a Jobs Strategy

  25. Think Regional about priorities Source: Blankespoor, Norman and Merotto (2019)

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