The Race to a Renewable Future Who is Going to Get There First?

1. The Race to a Renewable Future Who is Going to Get There First? Terry Penney, Technology Manager NREL’s FreedomCAR & Vehicle Technologies Program November 11, 2005

2. Transportation and Energy Challenges • Increasing demand for a finite resource - petroleum • Emission reductions and fuel-economy gains have been offset by: • More people • More cars • More vehicle miles traveled • More pollution • Decreasing fuel economy

3. Demand for Fuels Outstrips Supply U.S. Production with Transportation Use (1970-2020) Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2002

4. Worldwide Carbon Dioxide Emissions LDV U.S. light duty vehicles (LDV) alone are responsible for nearly 5% of world CO2 emissions. Source: Transportation Energy Data Book Edition 20, 2001

5. So What Are We Doing?Changing the Paradigm Vehicles and Fuels Energy Smart Buildings + + Renewables =

6. = A Renewable Community

7. U.S. Renewable Energy Resources

8. Pathways for Vehicles and Fuels Hydrogen Powered Vehicles (including Fuel Cells) Conventional Vehicles Hybrid Electric Vehicles Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles

9. Hydrogen Pathways hydrocarbon water biomass H2 H2 H2 H2 H2 H2 H2 H2 H2 H2 H2 H2 H2 H2 H2 H2 fuel cell e- e- e- e- e- e- e- e- e- e- e- e- Hydrogen must be derived from other energy sources.

10. A Next Step: Plug-in Vehicles PHEV A Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) uses today’s hybrid technology, adding a bigger battery and the capability to plug into your garage (or elsewhere) to fuel the battery with electricity. At 3 cents/mile to fill up an electric vehicle, compared to about 11 cents/mile to fill up a gasoline vehicle today, why not make a shift?

11. High Impact Path Petroleum Savings Opportunities for HEV, PHEV, and FCHEV PHEV FCHEV HEV PHEVs provide the best combination of rate and timing to significantly reduce fuel consumption while hydrogen fuel cell (FCHEV) technology is being developed. Source: NREL CTTS’ systems analysis modeling

12. Where Does our Electric Power Come From?Base Case Electricity Capacity Source: Base case projection of U.S. electric system capacity from NREL’s WinDS model (based on EIA fuel price projections; EIA 2005 Annual Energy Outlook)

13. Plug-ins Impact on Renewable WindResults with 50% PHEVs by 2020 PHEVs alone enabled this increase in economic wind Wind offsets almost all carbon emissions from U.S. LDVs Source: High capacity PHEV case projection from NREL’s WinDS model (based on EIA fuel price projections; EIA 2005 Annual Energy Outlook)

14. Increasing Fuel Economy Helps for Next 2 Decades, But is Not Enough to Offset Long-Term Growth Source: EIA 2005 Annual Energy Outlook

15. Utility Sized for Annual Peak Peak Shaving Excess Capacity Night-time charging of PHEV’s Plug-in HEVs Require No New Capacity and Even Improve Utility Performance Hours at Load Annually Assumes utility controlled night-time charging for 50% of the vehicles in this utility district Source: NREL’s analysis office EV load tool

16. Transportation Fuels Use Today

17. Transportation Fuels Use Today and Future Scenario

18. Transportation Fuels Use Today and Future Scenario

19. Transportation Fuels Use Today and Future Scenario

21. Pathways for Houses and Buildings Conventional Buildings Energy Smart Buildings Energy Smart Communities with Distributed Energy Generation

22. Zero Energy Building:Breaking out the Savings Energy Bottom Line During the month of June 1998, the occupied Zero Energy Home in Florida, consumed only 335 kWh of utility-grid power for all its electrical needs. This compares to 1,839 kWh used by the unoccupied control home for air-conditioning only! The monthly power cost in the Zero Energy home was only 18% of the control home’s power cost.

23. Distribute Energy to Renewable Communities

24. Scenario: Energy Flows Two Ways

25. A Renewable Community Vision A state-of-the-art, master planned community using advanced technologies and strategies to: • Maximize sustainability, economic benefits, quality of life • Minimize environmental impacts • Integrate currently disconnected systems (e.g., transportation and building energy systems) • Establish a viable community today while leading the transition to the communities of tomorrow • Develop technologies and approaches applicable to communities worldwide The community will have aggressive goals using sound strategic business and economic principles, with a short and long term focuses.

26. 10 Critical Elements of a Renewable Community • Community generates its own energy supply • Design and decisions based on sound business principles • Cost of living in the community is optimized for consumer • Energy conservation features are core • Vehicle miles traveled are substantially reduced • Encourages shared resources to minimize consumption • Pollution is minimal or non-existent • Integrate workplace with living place • Master planned community as an integrated system • Magnet for economic development • A community that people will demand to live in!

27. Barriers/Challenges • Technology • High value, low cost • Reliable • Accessible • Clean • Markets • Sustainable • Accessible • Competitive • Policies • Stable • Consistent • Long-term

28. Renewable Community Analysis

29. 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% After-Tax Mortgage Vehicle Payments Vehicle Fuel Costs Electricity Costs Total Costs Benefits Can Outweigh the BarriersA Renewable Community Can Cost Less Than A Non-Renewable Community! Renewable Community vs. Non-Renewable Community: Lifetime Cash Flows Non-Renewable Community Renewable Community Payments

30. Selecting Partnerships With • Auto Manufacturers • Builders • Developers (Land use, water, infrastructure) • Utility Companies • Other Suppliers • City, County, State, Federal Government and Non-Government Entities • Others?

31. Paving a Way (examples) • DestiNY Renewable MegaMall: Syracuse, New York • BioTown USA: Indiana • Sarasota, Florida: Resolution to advance plug-inhybrids and renewables • Austin, Texas: Resolution to advance plug-in hybrids and renewables • Plug-in Hybrid Prototypes by: Mercedes, DaimlerChrysler, Toyota (potential), and others • Energy Smart Buildings: Japan, San Diego, Sacramento, Austin, Chicago, etc.

32. Renewable Communities for Today and Tomorrow Will You Be in the Race?