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New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System

ASSIMILATION OF HIGH-FREQUENCY RADAR SURFACE CURRENTS INTO A COASTAL OCEAN MODEL OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BIGHT Alan F. Blumberg George Meade Bond Professor Director Davidson Laboratory Stevens Institute of Technology Liang Kuang and Nickitas Georgas I EEE-MTS 12 Ocean Meeting

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New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System

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  1. ASSIMILATION OF HIGH-FREQUENCY RADAR SURFACE CURRENTS INTO A COASTAL OCEAN MODEL OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BIGHT • Alan F. Blumberg • George Meade Bond Professor • Director Davidson Laboratory • Stevens Institute of Technology • Liang Kuang and Nickitas Georgas • IEEE-MTS 12 Ocean Meeting • October 17, 2012

  2. New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System Integrated system of observing sensors and forecast models TO OBSERVE TO PREDICT TO COMMUNICATE Weather Currents Water Level Salinity Temperature Waves

  3. Observe Forecast How? Serve Ground-Truth Automatically

  4. New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System A fully automated system of systems 0.5 hrs + 1.5 hrs + 2.0 hrs

  5. HF radar System C:\Documents and Settings\hroarty\My Documents\COOL\01 CODAR\MARCOOS\Renewal

  6. SLDMB Drifter

  7. Methodology—Data Assimilation • Data Assimilation- Nudging Scheme

  8. Non-tidal mean surface currents: HF radar vs. NYHOPS Before After From Jun 9th, 2011 to Jul 21st, 2011. Scale is in 10cm/s.

  9. Tidal currents(M2 ellipses) after DA Before After From Jun 9th, 2011 to Jul 21st, 2011. Scale is in 10cm/s.

  10. RMSE between NYHOPS Hindcast, Drifter currents before and after data assimilation (cm/s) Positive means improvement

  11. 43 (3X) Reseeding particle-tracking simulations

  12. RMSE of NYHOPS Forecast, Drifter currents before and after data assimilation (cm/s)

  13. 43 (3X) Reseeding particle-tracking simulations

  14. Conclusions • NYHOPS established as an urban ocean forecast system – large following with multiple constituencies • Using currents derived from drifters for validation: Average RMS errors of hindcast and 1 day forecast shows 8% improvements Particle-tracking simulations showed improvements of 7% (hindcast) and 10% ( 1 day forecast) based on separation distances • The future work - assimilation using more advanced schemes, such as KalmanFilter/LRTKF, 3D and 4D var

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