Chesapeake Bay Observing System (CBOS) Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS)

1. MACOORA 2009 Annual ConferenceCoastal Inundation/Climate Change Issues Breakout Conversation User: What do I need now that I’m not getting? Provider: What can MACOORA do? Chesapeake Bay Observing System (CBOS) Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS) Barry Stamey Director, Strategic Collaboration, Noblis

2. Poquoson Fire Stations Langley AFB Peak Inundation – Hurricane Isabel Hampton/Poquoson, VA Hampton

3. “Coastal Inundation Prediction System of Systems” (CIPSS) User Identification and Needs User Engagement & Valuation Spatial and Temporal Scales and Applications across Spectrum of Societal Needs & Users Sys Eng – Requirements, Conops, Gap Analysis, Prototypes, Acquisition, Deploy, Sustain Data Management & Communications Real-time Observations Static Databases Real-time Modeling Ensemble Forecasting Visualization & Products Validation & Assimilation Product Delivery Atmospheric Bathy Atmospheric Model Graphs Fcst Text Atm Sensor Phone calls Water Level Topo Hydrologic Model Vis Fcst Graphs WL Gages Cmd Center Stream Flow GIS Layers Hydrodynamic Uncertainty Static Vis Inundation On Scene Precipitation Tides Precipitation History Rules Animated Vis Future? Internet Waves Waves Other Inputs Winds Public Future? Future? Future? Future? Future? Future? Standards & Common Architecture Future Research & Development Innovation >>> Rapid Prototyping Draft 2005-2008 Stamey

4. Filling the Gaps: Identifying opportunities and solutions • What is the user base • To the WFO to the public • How to EMs • How to civil community • How to express confidence/uncertainty • Credibility storm to storm • What is the probability of something happening • Which one – whose information – do planners believe • The lay person needs to have confidence – assess validity • How does it impact me – localize the impact • Observations are not dense enough to provide confidence and validate models • Need cheap sensors and affordable O&M • Disclose more information about model so that users know what they are getting • Not just a simple validation • Standards for modeling and decision making – better to move or save?

5. Filling the Gaps: Identifying opportunities and solutions • Roles and responsibilities – not just government • Capabilities from all sectors • MACOORA is good opportunity to explore conops • And people still have to have confidence in the forecasts – social aspects • Heeding warnings comes with time – see it on the evening news • Ensemble approach • Synergy between federal and commercial providers • Pretty pictures versus state of the science • Robust standardized statistical approach • USACE, NOAA • Model skill evaluation • What are we actually going to provide • Who owns it and operates it • What level of detail • Framework, conops • Communication – visualization and engagement of users

6. Filling the Gaps: Identifying opportunities and solutions • End to end – • Data collection, metadata, data management • Atmospheric models for real time forcing • Real time forecast of total water including waves and runoff • Sea level rise and climate change • Mean water datum • Subsidence • Verification and validation • LIDAR • Enough gages to validate • Variable changes in sea level • Modeling and metadata • Temperature, flow, water quality – ecological, ecosystem