How well is the impact of international migration measured between Censuses?

1. How well is the impact of international migration measured between Censuses? David Owen, Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick.

2. Introduction • This paper is concerned with population change and its monitoring in Wales and Northern Ireland between 2001 and 2011 • Both have relatively small populations, and hence internal and international migration can have substantial impacts upon the population size and structure. • The last intercensal decade was one of rapid population increase and high net international migration, affecting both countries. • This paper (derived from a JRF project on data sources for measuring ethnicity and poverty) considers the data sources which were available in each country to measure migration and the changing ethnic composition of the population during the inter-censal decade. • It contrasts the availability of data in the two countries and the implications for contemporary awareness of population change by government departments and service providers. • It compares the findings of the 2011 Census on ethnicity and migration with estimates of the ethnic composition and migration in each country.

3. Contrasting national data contexts Northern Ireland Wales Devolved government with limited powers. Welsh government departments collect statistics on their own operations. There are some Wales-specific surveys managed by Welsh government departments and Analytical Services manages the StatsWales website. UK-wide surveys are conducted by ONS. The Census is conducted by ONS, with Wales-specific questions. Demographic data and estimates are the responsibility of ONS. • Devolved government with limited powers. • Government departments collect their own statistics and manage NI-specific surveys. • Separate statistics agency (NISRA) collects demographic data and makes population estimates. • NISRA conducts the Census. • NISRA contributes to UK-wide surveys and statistics collected by ONS.

4. Population characteristics of Wales and Northern Ireland in 2001 Wales Northern Ireland Population: 1.67 million Minority ethnic group population: 12.6 thousand Minority population share: 0.7 per cent Largest minority groups (000s): Chinese (4.1), mixed parentage (3.3), Indian (1.6) % minority ethnic groups UK-born: 44.2 Overseas-born as % of population: 4.1 Non-European % of population: 1.1 Largest overseas countries of birth (000s) : Ireland (39), Germany (3.8), Hong Kong (1.7) • Population: 2.9 million • Minority ethnic group population: 61.6 thousand • Minority population share: 2.1 per cent • Largest minority groups (000s): mixed parentage (17.7), Indian (8.3), Pakistani (8.3), Chinese (6.3) • % minority ethnic groups UK-born: 52.2 • Overseas-born as % of population: 3.2 • Non-European % of population: 1.7 • Largest overseas countries of birth (000s): Ireland (12.8), Germany (10.1), India (5.5), Pakistan (3.5)

5. Migration and population change • In both countries, there was strong population growth throughout the decade. • Natural increase was an important influence on population growth, and increased throughout the decade in both countries. • In Wales, its effect outweighed net migration by the end of the decade. • Net migration form the rest of the UK was not important in Northern Ireland, but was much larger in Wales. • International migration was a major influence on population change. The growth of the Northern Ireland population in the mid-decade largely reflected the increase in net international migration. • The implication of high rates of net international migration is that the ethnic composition of the population will alter. In small populations, dominated by the slow-growing white ethnic group, the change in ethnic composition is likely to be magnified. • The next section demonstrates how the ethnic composition of each country changed during the decade.

6. Migration and population change: Northern Ireland

7. Components of population change: Wales

8. Wales: migration indicators 2004-11 • Migration was measured by ONS estimates of non-British nationality from the Labour Force Survey and administrative sources – NINos and Workers Registration Scheme. GP registrations and “flag4” data provide additional indicators of migration. • Migration from the A8 countries peaked in 2006-7, but NINo data showed that migration from the rest of the world continued. • The estimated number of people with non-British nationality steadily increased. • Poland, India and China were the main sources of migrants over this period.

9. Regional origins of NINo registrations in Wales

10. Data sources on migration in Northern Ireland • Workers Registration Scheme data shows that the largest sources of migrant workers were Poland, followed by Lithuania and Slovakia. • Nearly 24 thousand Poles registered under the scheme over the decade. • NINo data (000s) shows that while A8 countries dominated migration flows, there were significant flows from Asia and the EU15. • Migration from Asia also peaked in 2006, but that from the EU15 was sustained throughout the decade.

11. Population change by ethnic group, 2001-2011 • Wales had a much larger and more diverse minority ethnic group population than Northern Ireland in 2001. • In both countries, the ethnic composition was different from England. The Chinese and Mixed parentage populations were relatively large. • There was a long-established Black population in Wales, but the Asian population was significant. In Northern Ireland, the minority ethnic group population was less long-established and associated with higher education and the health service. • In both countries, population increased much more rapidly than in previous decades between 2001 and 2011. The population of Wales grew by 5.5% and that of Northern Ireland grew by 7.5%. • The white population increased in both countries, but the minority ethnic group population more than doubled in both. In Wales, the number of Black-African people quadrupled and the number of people from Other ethnic groups trebled. • In Northern Ireland, the Black-African population was about five times larger in 2011 than 2001, while the Indian population quadrupled and the Other Asian population emerged during the decade. • In both countries, the longer established minority populations tended to grow most slowly.

12. Change in ethnic composition and new ethnic groups • In Wales, the minority ethnic group share of the population more than doubled, from 2.1% to 4.4%. • The fastest growth was in South Asian and some newer Other ethnic groups, and hence the mixed parentage and Chinese ethnic groups became relatively smaller. There was a small increase in the White-Other ethnic group. • The largest non-British ethnic groups in 2011 were Polish, “any other ethnic group”, unspecified European ethnic groups and Filipinos. • In Northern Ireland, the minority share of the population grew from 0.7% to 1.7%. The Indian, Other-Asian, Black-African and Other ethnic groups grew strongly. • The main non-English languages used in 2011 in Northern Ireland were Polish (1%), Lithuanian (0.4%), Irish Gaelic (0.2%), Portugese (0.1%) and Slovak (0.1%). • Clearly, international migration had resulted in the emergence of new white and minority ethnic groups in both countries. • The white ethnic groups may have masked the decline in the white population in both countries. • The established minority ethnic groups in both countries gained population, but people from new minority ethnic groups also migrated during the decade.

13. Wales: change in ethnic group populations, 2001-2011

14. Northern Ireland: change in ethnic group populations, 2001-2011

15. ONS estimates of ethnicity in Wales • The ONS produces experimental estimates of population by ethnic group • Comparing estimates for 2009 with Census data for 2011 demonstrates that these projections were quite successful for Wales. • However, they overestimated the decline in the white population and growth of the minority ethnic group population • They over-estimated the growth of the White-Other population and underestimated the growth of “Other” ethnic groups • Nevertheless, this offers a reasonably reliable approach to monitoring the changing ethnic composition of the population after 2011 and yielding some baseline information for service delivery and voluntary organisations.

16. Northern Ireland: NISRA population estimates • NISRA estimates the white and minority ethnic, UK-born and non-UK born populations using a range of administrative and demographic data sources. • These identified the growth of the minority ethnic group population and the growth of the white minority population over this decade. • The overall estimated percentages in 2010 are close to the Census estimates for 2011.

17. Monitoring new populations – data sources • The decennial Census is the only statistical source of information on the ethnicity and migrant origins of the entire population. • Administrative data sources are used to monitor in-migration by country of birth. • Migration trends are estimated from the IPS combined with the Census, LFS and administrative data. • However, administrative data yield no information on out-migration and migrants who remain in the country. • Only survey data could yield information on the social and economic characteristics of migrant and minority groups. • National social surveys conducted in Northern Ireland by NISRA on behalf of ONS have often included a question on religion in a form relevant to Northern Ireland, rather than an ethnic group question consistent with Great Britain. • Since sample sizes are proportional to population in those surveys which are not boosted, the sample size for Wales tends to limit the analysis possible for minority ethnic or newcomer populations. • The major national source of survey data in the intercensal years covering Wales and Northern Ireland was the Labour Force Survey / Annual Population Survey. • Despite having a large sample size, it does not yield reliable data disaggregated by ethnic group. The following slides provide examples.

18. APS estimates of the minority ethnic group population in Northern Ireland • The Annual Population Survey in Northern Ireland is based on the Labour Force Survey. It collects data on ethnicity, nationality and country of birth and a range of socio-economic variables. • The sample size is larger than that of Northern Ireland-specific social surveys, but was reduced as a cost saving measure. • Unlike Wales, there is no national APS boost. The APS yielded estimates of the population by ethnic group but while the population of mixed parentage was estimated to have increased, those of other ethnic groups were estimated to have declined.

19. APS labour market rates in Wales and Northern Ireland • In Wales (upper chart), the APS measures white unemployment rates quite well. • The minority ethnic group unemployment rate is very volatile, and it is not clear whether the trends are genuine responses to economic shocks or the result of uncertainty in the data. • In Northern Ireland, the trend in employment rates does not seem plausible, since male minority employment rates were increasing in a recession. • The employment rate for minority ethnic groups was higher than that for white people. Though possible, this seems unlikely.

20. Other data sources on minority ethic group populations • There are a series of regular social surveys conducted in Northern Ireland and the National Survey is conducted in Wales. • Most of these surveys are based on a random sample of the population with a sample size of around 1000 households/persons. • Northern Ireland examples are the Continuous Household Survey, Life and Times Survey and House Condition Survey. • These surveys also rarely include questions on ethnic group or country of birth. When they do, small sample sizes mean it is only possible to produce white/minority analyses. • An example of the problems of Northern Ireland social surveys is provided by household income by ethnic group. • The National Survey for Wales has a larger sample size but has been conducted only irregularly. With origins in a housing condition survey, it has included a range of key social and economic variables, such as internet access and IT usage.

21. Household income in Northern Ireland • The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2010 asked a question on household income. • This showed that the percentage of black and minority ethnic people with household incomes greater than £500 was somewhat lower than that for white people. • The percentage with household incomes of less than £200 per week was also slightly higher than for white people. • However, this result is based on a very small sample – only 34 people from minority ethnic groups who were willing to answer the household income question.

22. Administrative statistics - schools • A useful source of data on the characteristics of minority populations is school statistics. • In Wales, Annual School Census uses a census-style classification of pupils, with an expanded classification • In Northern Ireland, educational statistics are based on self-ascribed ethnicity. • In both countries, statistics on the percentage of school children eligible for free school meals are produced. • This is an indicator of poverty. This identifies the extreme social exclusion of groups like Irish Travellers and Gypsy/Roma/Traveller in Wales. • In Northern Ireland, ‘newcomer’ pupils and pupils for whom English is not their first language are also identified. • School statistics can therefore identify the emergence of new minority populations and their relative disadvantage. • However, they provide no definitive information on the size of the population of a minority group. They also provide only a proxy indicator of disadvantage.

23. Wales – pupils on free school meals • The percentage of pupils on free school meals is an indicator of household income, since these are families eligible for benefits. • Demonstrates the extreme exclusion of GRT groups, but highlights the poverty of Black-Africans and the relative advantage of Indian and Chinese people. • In Northern Ireland, school statistics also highlight the newcomer status of Roma and Korean school children, the relative prosperity of South sian people and disadvantage of Black people.

24. School statistics – Northern Ireland

25. Conclusion • Wales and Northern Ireland experienced rapid population growth, strongly influenced by international migration between 2001 and 2011. • Estimates of the overall ethnic composition of the population derived from a range of administrative sources have been quite successful. • However, national surveys are not successful in monitoring the social and economic circumstances of minority ethnic and migrant groups. • National-specific surveys are too small to yield reliable information. • School statistics yields indicators of population change and socio-economic disadvantage, but there is still a need for surveys large enough to yield regular data on a range of social and economic variables which can be robustly disaggregated by individual ethnic groups.,