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Global food demand and supply trends

Global food demand and supply trends. Dr Theo de Jager Agri SA. Drivers of Change. Climate Global warming Exploding population 50% more in 40 years Economical power relations BRIC’s, China and the trouble of the West Political power relations Fading of nation-states.

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Global food demand and supply trends

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  1. Global food demand and supply trends Dr Theo de Jager Agri SA

  2. Drivers of Change • Climate • Global warming • Exploding population • 50% more in 40 years • Economical power relations • BRIC’s, China and the trouble of the West • Political power relations • Fading of nation-states

  3. What is happening in the world? • 1.2 billion people undernourished (20%) • Highest number in history • Food prices are rising • Global economic uncertainty • Upward pressure on agricultural production

  4. Net importers & exporters of grain Europe North America East Asia Caribian Sub-Sahara Africa

  5. Water available per person per day

  6. Groundwater

  7. Cropland in use and Total suitable land (million ha) Source: FAO Data and Fischer et al (2000)

  8. Factors affecting demand • Population & urbanisation • Population growth outpacing economic growth • Over 9 billion by 2050 • 70% will live in cities  Demand on agriculture 70% increase in output needed • Economic realities • Poor spend 60% of earnings on food • Lifestyle & Culture

  9. Population growth

  10. Urbanisation

  11. Changes in demand result from increased income Source : Prof. RL Thompson – 16th IFMA Congress – Cork, Ireland, 15-20 July 2007 Source: Johan Willemse 2008

  12. Food demand continues to change Income development North America Diet food, functional food, organic food Japan Western Europe Australia Fresh & convenient, segmented meals Eastern Europe Prepared meals, snacks SA Eggs, meat, dairy, sugar, processed mass-marketed food, soft drinks Latin America China India Africa (Sub-Saharan) Carbohydrate staples (grains, roots, tubers) Source: A Jooste, P Taljaard. Lek. UV Convenience Foodservice Snacking International Surviving Mass-market Quality Individualized Health High tech Food perception Source: Johan Willemse 2008

  13. Change in production and consumption of certain products% change 2019 vs 2007-09 Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2010-2019

  14. Factors affecting supply • Availability of natural resources • Land • Water • Climate Change • Crop yields • Changes in demand, also non-food uses • Profitability

  15. Crop yields • Research and development • Drought resistant varieties • Technologies to combat diseases and pests • Training and knowledge transfer • Improved management

  16. Agricultural profitability • Farmers can only produce if profitable • Profitability under pressure • Lower producer prices • Increased input costs • External factors e.g. policy interventions, climate change, crime • Profitability = sustainability = food security

  17. The way out • Reduce population growth rate • Promote economic prosperity, health, and education • Invest in agricultural productivity • Research, extension, credit, markets, infrastructure • Protect soil and water resources • Assign property rights • Gives resource owners a stake in environmental protection • Encourage economic growth among the poorest • Macro-economic policies, competitive markets, human capital • Get agriculture back on the agenda in foreign and local assistance

  18. So what? In a future of shortages, Africa has natural resources in abundance Who will exploit it? We can not stop it Farmers to Africa are not – about SA; they are + about Africa! No insurance policies; -Leap of faith Numbers 13:31 - Joshua & Caleb

  19. ‘n Boer maak ‘n plan!

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