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Mason Burley ERDC SLDS Conference Olympia, WA May 21, 2014

Big Data, Big Obstacles Assessing the Impact of Statewide College Financial Assistance Programs. WASHINGTON STATE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY. Mason Burley ERDC SLDS Conference Olympia, WA May 21, 2014. ?. Mission. Strategy. Obstacles. Debrief.

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Mason Burley ERDC SLDS Conference Olympia, WA May 21, 2014

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  1. Big Data, Big ObstaclesAssessing the Impact of Statewide College Financial Assistance Programs WASHINGTON STATE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY Mason Burley ERDC SLDS Conference Olympia, WA May 21, 2014 ?

  2. Mission Strategy Obstacles Debrief Washington State Institute for Public Policy Subject: State Need Grant (SNG) program • Started in 1969 • Available to WA undergrads • Available to public/private, two/four students • Award amounts linked to tuition • Need-based (median family income) • Means tested (prorated award) May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  3. Mission Strategy Obstacles Debrief Washington State Institute for Public Policy Problem: Resident undergraduate tuition growth May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  4. Mission Strategy Obstacles Debrief Washington State Institute for Public Policy State Need Grant—Total expenditures (2003-2012) May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  5. Mission Strategy Obstacles Debrief Washington State Institute for Public Policy State Need Grant eligible students May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  6. Mission Strategy Obstacles Debrief Washington State Institute for Public Policy Mission: Are SNG dollars effective? “Determine to what extent this [SNG] program has increased access and degree attainment for low-income students and to determine whether the funding for the state need grant has been utilized in the most efficient way possible to maximize the enrollment and degree attainment of low-income students” 2012 HB 2127 May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  7. Mission Strategy Obstacles Debrief Washington State Institute for Public Policy Mission: Are SNG dollars effective? • The demographics of recipients, including, but not limited to, gender, race, and income • The effect on enrollment rates of low-income students at the different institutions of higher education and whether these students attend full-time or part-time • The effect on persistence, performance, degree completion, and time-to-degree completion • An inventory of the types of degrees, by field of study • The interplay of the State Need Grant program with other forms of financial aid May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  8. Mission Strategy Obstacles Debrief Washington State Institute for Public Policy Operatives: Washington State Institute for Public Policy Non-partisan research at legislative/board direction May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  9. Obstacles Strategy Results Mission Washington State Institute for Public Policy Research obstacles: Different sources of aid • Calculated need equals cost of attendance minus expected family contribution • Note that not all students receive award/loan in each category • Private loans not included May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  10. Obstacles Strategy Results Mission Washington State Institute for Public Policy Research obstacle: Differences among students • Student background and profile • 64% – Community and technical college students • 44% – Independent, over age 25 (37% dependent under age 25) • 84% – Income under half of state median family income • 16% – Independent and married • Enrollment level • 58% – Enrolled full-time, full year • 18% – Enrolled full-time, part year • 33% – Summer enrollment May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  11. Obstacles Strategy Results Mission Washington State Institute for Public Policy Research obstacle: Comparison group Unserved SNG students… • …may not be comparable • Higher family incomes • Late filers • More likely to enroll part-time • …don’t stay “unserved” • 40% receive SNG in following year • …have long term outcomes that are unknown • 2009-10 first year unserved population grew May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  12. Obstacles Strategy Results Mission Washington State Institute for Public Policy Data challenge: Timing Potential outcomes • Persistence: on-going enrollment • Academic year completion (fall to spring) • Fall-to-fall continuation • Academic progress • Accumulation of credits for on-track graduation • Graduation • Degree or certificate completion within 6years (3 years for associates) • Electronic databases available from 2005 (fall) forward • Final report due January 2014 May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  13. Obstacles Strategy Results Mission Washington State Institute for Public Policy Data challenge: Linking data CTC enrollment(SBCTC) Education Research and Data Center (ERDC) Unit Record Report (WSAC) Public four-year(PCHEES-COP) Private four-year(12/15 colleges) Linked, de-identified Private career(6/11 schools) WSIPP SNG research data May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  14. Obstacles Strategy Results Mission Washington State Institute for Public Policy Data challenge: Standardized data • Comparability of public/private college data • Cooperation • Definitions • Institutional aid • IPEDS measures • Institutional crossover • First-time enrollment • Academic progress • Credit accumulation, satisfactory academic progress May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  15. Strategy Obstacles Results Mission Washington State Institute for Public Policy Approach: Take advantage of “discontinuities” in SNG design • Difference in SNG amount, but similar profile/aid • Permits reliable inference on SNG effect May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  16. Strategy Obstacles Results Mission Washington State Institute for Public Policy Average State Need Grant and Pell by MFI If SNG has an effect, we would expect to see it here May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  17. Strategy Obstacles Results Mission Washington State Institute for Public Policy Financial aid as a percentage of COA by MFI range and sector: 2011-12 May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  18. Strategy Obstacles Results Mission Washington State Institute for Public Policy Know thy data…. • Acronym soup • COA, EFC, SAP, Need, CIP…. • Sector-specific definitions • Student classification • Outcome milestones • Verification and transparency May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  19. Results Mission Strategy Obstacles Washington State Institute for Public Policy Effects* of a 25% reduction SNG on outcomes May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  20. Results Mission Strategy Obstacles Washington State Institute for Public Policy Fall-to-fall enrollment A 25% change in the SNG award is associated with…. • 4% change in expected fall-to-fall enrollment for CTC students • 1,791 students (of total 47,134 enrolled) may change enrollment decision based on $600 change in SNG amount • 2% change in expected fall-to-fall enrollment for public baccalaureate students • 378 students (of total 17,171 enrolled) may change enrollment decision based on $2,000 change in SNG amount May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  21. Results Mission Strategy Obstacles Washington State Institute for Public Policy Degree completion A 25% change in the SNG award is associated with…. • 5% change in expected degree completions for CTC students • Total degrees earned may change for 436 entering students (of 10,895 first-time students) with a $600 change in SNG amount • 8% change in expected degree completions for public baccalaureate students • Total degrees earned may change for 439 entering students (of 5,289 first-time students) with a $2,000 change in SNG amount May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  22. Results Mission Strategy Obstacles Washington State Institute for Public Policy Finding 1: Effect of need-based grants on subsequent fall enrollment (elasticity) Weighted average = 0.140 May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  23. Results Mission Strategy Obstacles Washington State Institute for Public Policy Finding 2: Longitudinal (cross sector) outcomes CTC May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  24. Results Mission Strategy Obstacles Washington State Institute for Public Policy Finding 2: Longitudinal (cross sector) outcomes Baccalaureate May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  25. Results Mission Strategy Obstacles Washington State Institute for Public Policy Finding 3: Variation in “need” Pell Grant receipt among SNG students by income level (2011-12) May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  26. Results Mission Strategy Obstacles Washington State Institute for Public Policy Alternative state awarding formulas • Shared responsibility model award amount=COA-(student+family+govt Pell) • Percentage of need declines as EFC increases May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  27. Results Mission Strategy Obstacles Washington State Institute for Public Policy Finding 3: Variation in “need”Hypothetical state examples—students served and award amounts May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  28. Lessons Learned • Statewide programs do not always include statewide information • Within/between differences • An integrated database can be used to test eligibility and awarding formulas • Right team and structure necessary for program evaluation – THANKS to ERDC, WSAC, and institutional partners May 21, 2014 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

  29. Thank you Questions? Mason Burley mason.burley@wsipp.wa.gov 360-528-1645 http://www.wsipp.wa.gov

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