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On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME.

On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME. . Luc Reychler. Academic diplomacy. Adresses sensitive issues Questions the reliability and validity of ‘ evidence ’ Traces causes /drivers Assesses costs and benefits Researches alternative approaches.

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On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME.

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  1. On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME. Luc Reychler Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  2. Academicdiplomacy • Adressessensitive issues • Questions the reliabilityandvalidity of ‘evidence’ • Tracescauses/drivers • Assessescostsand benefits • Researchesalternative approaches Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  3. Israël: the onlynuclear power in ME • Has approximately 200 warheads + delivery systems: air force / missile / submarine • No overtadmission policy • = not a member of the Non-Proliferation of NuclearweaponsTreaty ( NPT) Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  4. Policy of Israël • Pursuit of offensive dominance (conventional and nuclear) • Counter proliferation: preemptive strikes against nuclear real or alleged nuclear plants (1981 in Iraq and 2007 attack in Syria) • Builds antiballistic missile system • Uses nuclear weapons to deter aggression and to dissuade retaliation for its own military interventions Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  5. Iran:nuclear have not • Since 70’s – Shah wants nuclear energy capability • In 1981 the new governmentdecidesto continue nucleardevelopmentfor energy andmedicalpurposes • Increasingpressurefrom the West tobecomefullytransparentand stop enrichingnuclearmaterials • Iran invited IAEA • Insiststo continue low level enrichment up to 20% (permittedbyarticle IV NPT) • 5+1 negotiations Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  6. Nuclearplants Iran Nuclear plants in Germany Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  7. Big picture of a dangerous crisis Nuclear crisis Non adaptive strategic thinking Foreign interference: now and then Denial of root causes of conflicts and of political terrorism Verbal wars + absence of official diplomatic relations Coercive diplomacy and military intervention Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  8. Externalinterference in domesticaffairs • 1953: overthrow of Mossadegh + installation military governmentheadedbyShahPavlavi • 1979: first popularrevolutionand regime change in the ME: Khomeini • Iraq-Iran war ½ - 1 millionIranians dead • Diplomaticisolation / sanctions /military threats. It has been called the greatestthreat in the worldandrankedby the State Department on the ‘sponsors of terrorism list’. This list alsoincludes Cuba. Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  9. Denial of root causes conflicts-political terrorism • Internal political-, economic- and demographic problems • The use of double standards • Support of friendly authoritarian countries & crippling and destruction of unfriendly ones • The illegal occupation of the Palestinian territories (Palestine) and Syrian Golan heights + repression of the Palestinian people . Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  10. Coercive diplomacy and military interventions • Militarization of Iran’s neighborhood • In the 21st century, the West engaged in more than six wars/military interventions in the region: Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Libya, Palestine, Syria. • The civil war in Syria is a proxy war • The interventionsresulted in more turbulence, instabilityand human insecurity of the regionand the creation of weak fragile states Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  11. Military in ME IRAN Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  12. Verbal wars + absence of formal diplomatic relations • Scapegoating: Great Satan/Axis of Evil • Mutual threats to destroy each other • No official diplomatic relations for more than 30 years Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  13. Non-adaptive strategic thinking Offensive dominance Absolute security • The prime threat to security in the ME is ‘the West’ itself. • The greatest threat lies in the tendency to exaggerate the dangers it faces and to respond by counterproductive belligerence Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

  14. Conclusion • A very dangerous crisis • Urgently needed • Reestablishment of official diplomatic relations • Replacement of coercive diplomacy and militarization by more effective diplomatic efforts to deal with conflicts in a timely and constructively way, and to prevent violence and build sustainable security for all. Luc Reychler On the creation of a nuclear crisis in the ME KU Leuven 6.5.2013

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