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The End of Rick Perry

The End of Rick Perry. Office Hours. When Today- 11-2 Monday 10-2 Doyle 226B. Learning Outcomes . Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process .

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The End of Rick Perry

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  1. The End of Rick Perry

  2. Office Hours • When • Today- 11-2 • Monday 10-2 • Doyle 226B

  3. Learning Outcomes • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

  4. Campaign Mistakes

  5. Spending Time in New Hampshire • He had no chance here • He wasted Time and Money • Unnecessary distractions

  6. Punching Down • Perry Believed that you never leave an attack unanswered • No one attacks Ron Paul • This was a novice mistake

  7. Policy Mistakes • The 26th Amendment • The War in Iran • Sonia Motomayor? • Going after Bernanke

  8. Debate mistakes

  9. The Role of Debates • A Chance to See All Candidates on the Same Stage • Who is Advantaged? • Who is disadvantaged? • Criticisms

  10. Perry’s Debate Problem • Debates are not a big deal in Texas • He didn’t debate Bill White in 2010 • He hated practicing and preparing for them

  11. Perry’s First Debate (California) • Started Strong • Attacked on Many Fronts • Withered out by the end

  12. Debate Flubs • Perry’s mouth would be scrutinized and publicized in a way that, as governor, he had never experienced. • Often incoherent • Flip-Flopping Flop

  13. Perry’s Best Moment • The 10,000 Bet

  14. The Impact of the Debates • Usually Started strong and faltered • By the 4th debate he had fallen 20 points and trailed Herman Cain

  15. Oops http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTNjhcyx7dM

  16. What happens when your campaign crumbles?

  17. Rehabbing the Image

  18. Fundraising Dries up • An initial burst followed by nothing • Mostly from Texas • Perry did not want to fundraise.

  19. Changing the Staff • Perry was persuaded by unemployed Gingrich staffers • They try to shake up the campaign by bringing in D.C. operatives • The New People call the old People Texas Rubes and each point fingers.

  20. The Invisible Primary ends

  21. One Month Before Iowa

  22. Rules of the Nominating Game Just Like Vegas, Never play a game you don’t know how to play

  23. Rules of the Game: Amassing Delegates

  24. Rules of the Game: Primaries • Work Like Mini-elections • Much More common than in years past

  25. Rules of the Game: Caucuses • Held at a specific time and place • May last for Hours • They Feature a Different Kind of Electorate than primaries

  26. Rules of the Game: Pledged Delegates • Required to vote for their candidate • More than 80% of all Delegates • Republicans Rely more heavily on these

  27. Rules of the Game: Allocation • Winner Take All • Proportional Representation

  28. Rules of the Game: Unpledged Delegates • Once the Norm, rather than the exception • RNC • DNC PLEO’s • Reasons Why • Historical Role

  29. Rules of the Game: Frontloading • The movement of state primaries and caucuses earlier and earlier in the campaign season • The Impact of Frontloading

  30. John McCain and the Republicans The lessons of 2008

  31. Delegate Apportionment in 2008 The Democrats The Republicans Fewer Delegates More winner-take-all states • More Delegates • Proportional Representation • Super Delegates

  32. The Advantage of the Long Democratic Campaign for Obama • Scrutiny • Kept him in the News • Tested his leadership • Made the party enthusiastic

  33. How Mc Cain Wins Early: 2008 • Winner-take-all states • The Early win is A blessing and a curse for McCain

  34. Benefits of the Early McCain Victory • Cost savings • Refocus Campaign Strategy • Avoids additional party infighting

  35. Costs of the McCain victory • Never shores up the Evangelicals • Too reliant on unreliable independents • Out of the news for 5 months

  36. The Democratic Nomination

  37. Obama Wins! • No serious challenger • He could focus on being President • He didn’t have to spend money

  38. The 2012 Republican Nomination

  39. Frontloading and 2012 • Take a Page from the Democratic Playbook • The GOP require more states use proportional representation • Punish early movers • They did not want an early nominee.

  40. Frontloading and 2012

  41. The First Four in 2012 • Iowa • New Hampshire • South Carolina • Florida

  42. These Rules Were Intended to Extend the Nomination, which it did…. But it also brought unintended consequences!

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