Wilmington Air Quality Study Modeling for Neighborhood Assessment

1. Wilmington Air Quality StudyModeling for Neighborhood Assessment Todd Sax Vlad Isakov September 12, 2002 California Air Resources Board

2. Neighborhood Assessment • Program Objective • “Develop source-receptor based, cumulative impact/risk assessment methodologies suitable for evaluating neighborhood-scale air pollution impacts and for comparing neighborhood exposures within a region” (NAP Work Plan) • Develop tools for evaluating local scale impacts and targeting risk reduction strategies September 12, 2002 California Air Resources Board

3. Wilmington • Identified by MATES-II as one of the most impacted areas of the Los Angeles region • Located near • Freeways • Refineries • Ports • Local Traffic • Manufacturing • Local Facilities MATES-II Health Risk Wilmington September 12, 2002 (source: MATES-II, pg. ES-12)

4. Wilmington Study Domain September 12, 2002 California Air Resources Board

5. Wilmington Air Quality Study • Project Objectives • Improve assessment methodologies • Evaluate model results • Develop recommendations for policy development • Communicate results and risks to the public • Project Components • Emissions Inventory • Dispersion Modeling • Model Evaluation • Health Risk Assessment • Exposure Assessment September 12, 2002 California Air Resources Board

6. Wilmington Neighborhood Assessment - Conceptual Plan • Emissions • Point Sources • Industrial • Metal platers • Refineries • Manufacturing Facilities • Other sources: Cr6+, DPM • Commercial • Gas stations • Dry cleaners • Autobody shops • Warehouses • Industrial diesel • Welding facilities • On-Road Sources • Link-based inventory • Evaluate with vehicle • counts • Off-Road Sources • Marine - Port, ARB • Dockside - Port, ARB • Railroads - ARB, Port • Health Risk • Modeling Results • Inhalation health risk • calculation • Multi-media health risk • calculation • Health risk assessment • Exposure • Microscale Modeling • ISCST3 • AERMOD • CALINE4 • Regional Modeling • CALGRID and/or CMAQ • Model Evaluation • Tracer Studies • June 2003 • Powerplant elevated release • Toxics Monitoring • Multiple sites, June 2003 • Focus on diesel particulate • Coordination with POLA • Uncertainty Assessment • Focus on diesel and Cr6+ • Estimate range of pollutant • concentrations possible using • Monte Carlo techniques • Inventory Analysis • Focus on diesel and Cr6+ • Examine by source and release point • Estimate range of possible emissions • using Monte Carlo techniques • Compile by release location

7. Emissions Inventory • Goal: comprehensive emissions inventory • Industrial and Commercial Facilities • Comparing multiple inventory sources (Federal, State, Local) • Conducting on-site surveys of large and small facilities • On-Road Mobile Sources • Building link-based inventory using SCAG light and heavy duty travel demand models • Off-Road Mobile Sources • Supplementing off-road inventories with facility-specific emissions identified by survey • Working with Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in inventory development for sources of diesel PM • Integrating spatially allocated off-road emissions from multiple sources September 12, 2002 California Air Resources Board

8. Emissions Inventory - Facilities • Over 2500 businesses in modeling domain • 195 facilities in CEIDARS • Multiple inventory databases • 240 facilities surveyed, ~50% have emissions • More surveys planned

9. Emissions Inventory - Facilities • 195 facilities in CEIDARS • Corrected geo-locations • Integration with existing HRAs • Improved release locations and parameters • Sampled for data quality evaluation