La Jolla, CA 6 June, 2005

1. Why Does NOAA Need a Climate & Ecosystem Demonstration Project in the California Current System?Capabilities and Drivers La Jolla, CA 6 June, 2005

2. Why the CCS? following the lead of the NOAA AGM - • initiate “place-based demonstration projects” at the local and regional scale • develop and demonstrate a “proof of concept” for linking NOAA climate information with NOAA resource management, including projection of the status of marine and coastal living resources in future climates.

3. Required Program Capability NOAA Strategies - Climate • Improve quality and quantity of climate observations, analyses, interpretation, and archiving by maintaining a consistent climate record and by improving our ability to determine why changes are taking place • Develop ability to predict consequences of climate change on ecosystems by monitoring changes in coastal and marine ecosystems, conducting research on climate-ecosystem linkages, and incorporating climate information into physical-biological models

4. Required Program Capability NOAA Strategies - Ecosystems • Engage and collaborate with partners … to improve regional ecosystem health • Manage uses of ecosystems by applying scientifically sound observations, assessments, and research findings • Improve resource management by advancing our understanding of ecosystems through better simulation and predictive models • Build capabilities of ecological component of NOAA global environmental observing system… gather information consistent with established social and economic indicators

5. Required Program Capability CROSSCUTTING PRIORITIES • Integrating Global Environmental Observations and Data Management

6. Requirement drivers • Magnuson-Stevens Fisheries Conservation and Management Act (MSFCMA), Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), Endangered Species Act (ESA), and other legislation • Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) • United States’ Climate Change Scientific Program (CCSP) • Annual Guidance Memorandum (AGM) • NOAA and NMFS Strategic Plans • NOAA Climate and Ecosystem Goals PBAs • Earth Observation Summit • Pew Oceans Commission • U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy

7. Requirement drivers Annual Guidance Memorandum (AGM) – Expand Climate Services • “NOAA should support the CCSP by accelerating the delivery of science-based knowledge to policy makers and resource managers to manage the risks and opportunities of climate change. • NOAA should also supply climate information on a variety of time scales for resource management decisions involving water, agriculture, fisheries and energy”.

8. Desired outcomes(from NOAA Climate PBA) Goal - • predict probable consequences of global climate change on ecological systems and their living resources • deliver knowledge and tools needed to incorporate climate variability into resource management

9. Desired outcomes • NOAA has made large investments towards understanding and describing mechanisms of physical climate system • very little work to understand impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems, and response of living marine resources and coastal communities to climate forcing • build a bridge between “physical forcing” and “ecosystem response” through observations, modeling, and research

10. Capabilities required(from NOAA Climate PBA • linking “climate forcing” part of the NOAA community (the push) with “ecosystem response” and “living marine resource management” part of NOAA (the pull) • Continuously monitor changes in marine ecosystems • Develop regional-scale coupled physical-biological models that incorporate climate variability • Conduct process research of linkages between climate forcing and ecosystem response • Produce physical and ecological indicators of current and future status of climate and ecological systems • Distribute assessments of marine ecosystem health and productivity

11. Methodology to derive capability(from NOAA Climate PBA) • only critically important ecosystems selected for long term, climate integrated assessments • species and sites especially sensitive to climate variability designated as sentinel species and sites • monitored and observed as described in the Ecosystem Goal PBA • benefit to/from other NOAA programs and activities that support other missions.

12. Methodology to derive capability(from NOAA Climate PBA) Vision – • take elements of existing NOAA programs to develop integrated national Climate and Ecosystems program that will provide resource managers the knowledge and tools to deal with the consequences of climate change to marine ecosystems • place-based demonstration projects

13. Why the CCS? (from NOAA Climate PBA) • ability to successfully complete demonstration projects greatly enhanced by sites that will produce rapid results • selection of regions based in part on known sensitivity of ecosystem or their resources to climate variability • site has long time series of physical and biological observations available for study, and modeling sufficiently advanced to produce useful products with little lead-time • infrastructure exists to immediately begin necessary work • project candidates include fisheries-rich ecosystems of the North Pacific

14. What is key about CCS? • strong climate signal reflected in its ecosystem variability • highly productive and economically valuable LMRs • several important PR populations • populations representative of many other ecosystems • “sentinel species” sensitive to climate, key for detecting climate impacts • NOAA has new mandate of ecosystem-based management • currently 49 observing systems and several long-term programs • long history of collaboration on climate and fisheries issues • good hypotheses about mechanisms • consensus on priorities and approach • PaCOOS is an established, ideal umbrella for this work

15. Additional material

16. What is needed for CCS? • link observing systems and programs better for synergism • apply their data and knowledge for management • currently do relatively little holistic ecosystem research, and even less ecosystem management • need improved models and observations to test hypotheses • pilot project a model for understanding climate effects on a regional marine ecosystem in the context of an overall ecosystem approach to resource management. This will cost money, but be more economical than doing each species separately • We have all the right ingredients to succeed (obs, models, long time series, climate signal, indicators). This model and its successes can be exported to other ecosystems.

17. Performance Objectives (from NOAA SP) • Understand and predict consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems (Climate Goal) • Increase number of fish stocks managed at sustainable levels (Ecosystem Goal) • Increase number of regional coastal and marine ecosystems delineated with approved indicators of ecological health and socioeconomic benefits that are monitored and understood (Ecosystem Goal)

18. Why the CCS? • project candidates include fisheries-rich ecosystems of the North Pacific (Gulf of Alaska and California Current) • North Pacific projects will evaluate the impacts of El Niño events and climate regime shifts on fisheries, harmful algal blooms and coastal erosion.