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The Origin and Evolution of the NBER Working Paper Series

The Origin and Evolution of the NBER Working Paper Series. James Poterba, MIT and NBER July 2014. The Beginning. Bob Michael seeks an outlet for research from the NBER Center for Economic Analysis of Human Behavior and Social Institutions (December 1972)

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The Origin and Evolution of the NBER Working Paper Series

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  1. The Origin and Evolution of the NBER Working Paper Series James Poterba, MIT and NBER July 2014

  2. The Beginning • Bob Michael seeks an outlet for research from the NBER Center for Economic Analysis of Human Behavior and Social Institutions (December 1972) • The Vision: “What I have in mind is simply a new heavy paper cover for manuscripts much like that used by many departments of economics and university research institutes …” • Key Design Feature: “… [working papers have] not undergone the full critical review accorded the National Bureau’s studies…”

  3. The Prototype by H. Irving Forman

  4. Working Paper #1

  5. The Launch: June 1973 • Paper #1: Finis Welch, “Education, Information, and Efficiency” • Paper #2: Barry Chiswick, “Hospital Utilization: An Analysis of SMSA Differences” (published in Explorations) • Paper #3: Swarnjit Arora, “Error Component Regression Models and Their Applications” (published in Annals) • 3 WPs in first month, took 26 months to reach #100 • About 175 Papers before Martin Feldstein becomes NBER President in April 1977

  6. The Great Expansion: Post 1978 • 1978: 55 Papers • 1981: 221 Papers • Milestones: • WP1000: October 1982 • WP2000: August 1986 • WP5000: January 1995 (22 Years Post-Launch) • WP10000: October 2003 • WP20000: March 2014

  7. NBER WPs Today • 1110 papers in 2013 • 869 academic institution subscribers, 168 non-academic subscribers • Approximately 25,000 recipients of “New This Week” email • “Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded…” feature • Roughly 5.5 million downloads per year, of which 1.8 million are non-OECD users and 40% are for papers more than three years old • About 75% of visitors find NBER papers from a Google search

  8. Percent of 1st Year Downloads by Days Since Release

  9. Cumulative % Year 1 Downloads by Days Since Release

  10. Working Papers by Program, 1972-2014

  11. Top Working Paper Authors, 1973-2014

  12. Top Working Paper Authors, 2004-2014

  13. Most Downloaded Papers, 2005-2014

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