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This study examines temperature trends from 21 models for the early, mid, and late 21st century, predicting changes in surface temperature, precipitation intensity, soil moisture, and hydrologic cycles. It highlights increased precipitation intensity in northern states and more dry days in the southern US, with changes in frost days over western and southwestern regions. The research also uses climate models to forecast more severe heat waves in North America and the European/Mediterranean region.
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Instrumental Observed Temperature Trends - ANNUAL IPCC TAR (2001)
Surface temperature change in the 21st century from 21 models early century mid century late century
Changes in hydrologic cycle by the end of the 21st century temperature precipitation soil moisture
Precipitation intensity is projected to increase particularly in the northern tier of states (warmer air can hold more moisture, so that for a given event more precipitation falls) Dry days in between precipitation events increase mostly in the southern tier of states, but in the Pacific Northwest both precipitation intensity and dry days in between events increase
Changes in frost days in the late 20th century show biggest decreases over the western and southwestern U.S. in observations and the model
Future changes in frost days from the climate model show greatest decreases in the western and southwestern U.S., similar to late 20th century
Climate models can be used to provide information on changes in extreme events such as heat waves Heat wave severity defined as the mean annual 3-day warmest nighttime minima event Model compares favorably with present-day heat wave severity In a future warmer climate, heat waves become more severe in southern and western North America, and in the western European and Mediterranean region Meehl, G.A., and C. Tebaldi, 2004: More intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science, 305, 994--997. Observed Model Future
