NOAA’s National Weather Service

1. NOAA’s National Weather Service 2012-2013 Winter Season Outlook 2012 NCEMA Fall Conference Nick Petro, WCM NWS Raleigh, NC Tony Sturey, WCM NWS Greer, SC Phil Hysell, WCM NWS Blacksburg, VA NOAA’s National Weather Service

2. Presentation Outline • Introduction (Tony) • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick) • Winter season products and services (Phil) • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)

3. Presentation Outline • Introduction (Tony) • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick) • Winter season products and services (Phil) • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)

4. Winter Storm Prediction:Challenges Nick Tony Phil * *

6. Climate Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

7. Presentation Outline • Introduction (Tony) • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick) • Winter season products and services (Phil) • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)

8. Geographic Influences Due to NC’s proximity to the Appalachian Mountains, Atlantic Ocean, Gulf Stream, and Gulf of Mexico, various weather patterns can result in winter weather across the state.

9. Geographical Features H Highest Mtns in Eastern US Labrador Current Gulf Stream

10. The Primary Challenge:Depth of Cold Air 3 typical scenarios

11. One Organized Low

12. Offshore Track

13. Inland Track

14. Complex PatternMultiple Lows Separated by CADJan 7, 1996 Corridors of Predominant P-Type

15. Winter Weather Climatology • Winter weather season typically runs between December and March. • Predominate snow events are most common over the northwest, with least occurrences along the coast. • Freezing rain is most often predominate over the Northern Piedmont Damming Region (due to CAD). • Sleet is rarely the predominate winter storm precipitation type (it is typically found with transition zones of precipitation). National Weather Service

16. North Carolina’s Annual Average Snowfall National Weather Service

17. North Carolina’s Number of Days with Snow and Sleet Accumulation National Weather Service

18. North Carolina’s Number of Events per Year with Sleet and Freezing Rain National Weather Service

19. A Typical Strong Winter Storm with Cold Air Damming National Weather Service

20. Presentation Outline • Introduction (Tony) • Climatology and geographic influences (Nick) • Winter season products and services (Phil) • Outlook for this upcoming winter season (Tony)

21. Winter Weather Resources

22. Snowfall Criteria in NC

23. Snowfall Criteria in NC

24. Snowfall Criteria in NC

26. www.weather.gov

27. weather.gov

28. weather.gov

29. weather.gov

30. weather.gov/blacksburg

31. weather.gov How can I determine the forecaster’s confidence?

32. weather.gov How can I determine the forecaster’s confidence? Jan 16, 2008 Forecast Discussion

33. Winter Storm Example 3-7 Days in Advance of The Event

34. Winter Storm Example 3-7 Days in Advance of The Event

35. www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov

36. www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov

37. www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov

38. www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov

39. www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov

40. Winter Storm Example Winter Storm Arrives http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/ridgenew2/

41. Winter Storm Example Snowfall/Ice Reports

43. Winter Storm Example http://srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/snow/

44. NWSChathttps://nwschat.weather.gov • Provides EM, media, SKYWARN and other partners to exchange information with NWS forecasters anytime. • Already integrated within NWS operations. • Can run on any PC as well mobile devices such as a Blackberry or Droid.

46. Links provided to all products seconds within issuance including warnings

47. Weather on the Go! • NC-First mobile app • http://mobile.weather.gov/ • https://inws.wrh.noaa.gov

48. https://inws.wrh.noaa.gov

49. NOAA Weather Radio Why Not Have A Tornado Siren In Your Home, Work, or Car? • Receive weather information 24 hours a day. • Radio will sound a tone to alert you when a watch/warning has been issued. • Countless times, lives have been saved by NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio NOAA’s National Weather Service

50. Thank You!