National Weather Service

1. National Weather Service FY 2008 OMB Budget Submission John E. Potts Deputy Chief Financial Officer September 26, 2006

2. Agenda • NWS Mission and Programs • FY 2005/2006 Accomplishments • FY 2008 Budget Overview • Program Change Request Summary • FY 2008 Program Change Descriptions

3. NOAA’s National Weather Service NWS MISSION • Nation’s first line of defense against severe weather • Provides climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protectlife andproperty and enhance the economy • 1/3 of the U.S. economy ($3 trillion) is weather sensitive MAJOR PROGRAMS • Local Warnings & Forecasts – Public services provided at each WFO plus Tsunami warnings, Fire weather, Marine, & Aviation services • Central Forecast Guidance – Env. Modeling & Development, Storm Prediction, Hurricane Prediction, Aviation forecasts • Hydrologic Services – River/flood forecasts and warnings • Space Weather – Solar storm forecasts and warnings • Climate Services – Climate predictions and outlooks (flood/drought/heat)

4. FY 05-06 NWS Accomplishments • Accurately forecasted the most active hurricane season in history • 28 storms • 15 hurricanes • 7 major hurricanes • 4 Cat 5 storms • Disseminated life-saving warnings through NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards • Began Expansion of U.S. Tsunami Warning Program • Rated high in customer satisfaction • Deployed 7 new Hurricane Buoys • Expanded National Digital Forecast Database • Worked with EPA to Extend Reach of Air Quality Forecasts • Began running NOAA’s Central Computer System with Full Backup

5. About the National Weather Service • A Typical Year Brings: • 6 Hurricanes • 1,000 Tornadoes • 5,000 Floods • 10,000 Violent Thunderstorms • Drought Conditions • 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries • $14 Billion in Losses • In an average year, NWS produces: • 25 million forecasts • 41,000 warnings • 2,200 flood watches • 500 trillion digital forecasts • 9.4 million fire forecasts • 784,200 airport forecasts Katrina alone caused an estimated $100 billion in damage, and 1,300 fatalities

6. FY 2008 NWS Overview • Maintains current services by providing $24.2M above FY07 PB, a 2.7% Increase: • ATBs at $20.9M – NWS number 1 priority • Program Changes at $3.3M: • Provides operations & maintenance funding for expanded capabilities • Hurricane Supplemental projects: observations, modeling, system redundancy • Strengthen Tsunami Warning System • Modernized, redundant telecommunications hub • Continues planned technology and facilitiesinvestments/ Administration commitments • Reallocates funding to support priorities

7. FY 2008 NWS By Budget Structure

8. FY 2008 NWS Priorities

9. Adjustments to Base +$20.9M • Highest NWS Priority. • Under-funding erodes NWS available budget. • Maintains current operations critical to providing forecast and warnings products and services to the public • NWS operations budget is 67% labor. • Assumes 2.2% Pay Raise.

10. NWS Telecommunications Gateway Tech Refresh +$0.7M Why • Need to provide tech refresh to ensure NWSTG cyclical updates/ IT security compliance (4-6 year cycle) • 200% throughput increase in FY08 due to improved models and implementation of Hurricane Weather Forecasting System • Manufacturers no longer provide security support for older servers • Many elements of facility and network infrastructure 17 years old What • Additional CPUs and storage to meet increased throughput demand • Replace 5 year old Cisco switch and 17 year-old fire protection system

11. NWSTG Components Message Switching System Gateway Server Center (about 80 servers) Facility/Network Infrastructure (power, climate control, fire suppression, network routers & switches) Basis for Investment:NWSTG Status FY 2008 Schedule • Add 8 CPUs and 16GB memory to RTG p60 Message Switching Center Servers (2 servers @ $250K = $500K) • Replace 21 servers with 36 CPUs ($350K) • Replace 1 Cisco 6500 switch installed in FY 03 ($100K) • Expand cooling tower capacity to meet increased requirements since tower was installed in 1991 ($150K) • Replace 17 year-old smoke detector and fire control panel system ($95K)

12. NWSTG Tech Refresh +$0.7M

13. Hurricane Supplemental Buoy O&M+$3.0M * Included in Hurricane Supplemental Why • Saves lives & property by ensuring proper warning to dangerous storms • Provides critical support to improve the accuracy & determine: • cyclone formation or dissipation • extent of topical cyclone wind circulation • location and center of cyclones • direction, height, and distribution of ocean waves generated by cyclones • maximum cyclone intensity • quality of measurements and estimates obtained from • remote-sensing reconnaissance aircraft and satellites What • Provides O&M support for 15 weather buoys funded and deployed under the FY 2005 and FY 2006 Supp Approps • Size of cost increase due to: • Maintenance cycle peaks • U.S.C.G. doesn’t maintain buoys this far from coast • Buoys are an average of four sailing days apart • Size of buoys requires ship with substantial lift capability (of the15 buoys: 1 is a three meter buoy; 6 are six meter; 2 are ten meter; and 6 are twelve meter)

14. NDBC Hurricane Supp. Buoy O&M +$3.0M Performance FY 2008 Schedule • Provide field service and maintenance ($2.28M) which includes ship support for servicing ($1.31M) • Provide shore-side operation/infrastructure support ($0.24M) which includes data processing and operations and industrial infrastructure • Provide and maintain spare equipment/buoy to support field maintenance strategy ($0.48M)

15. NDBC Hurricane Supp. Buoy O&M +$3.0M

16. Hurricane Forecast Modeling (HWRF O&M) +$1.0M * Included in Hurricane Supplemental Why • Supports improved lead times to reduce the overall impact and cost to the economy from hurricanes and associated storm surge • Supports improved track and intensity forecast accuracies to support reducing costs of evacuations through improved storm evacuation strategies • What • Provides O&M support for the next generation hurricane and storm surge prediction system funded under the FY 2005 Hurricane Supplemental Appropriation • Eight contractors to maintain and enhance operational software code for the hurricane forecast system and storm surge forecast systems Record Hurricane Season of 2005

17. Hurricane Forecast Modeling (HWRF O&M) +$1.0M Performance • Supports planned FY08 NWS GPRA 48hr Hurricane Intensity Forecast • Current 48hr Hurricane Intensity Forecast error is 14 knots • This increase is projected to improve intensity forecasts by 3% per year; 30% improvement by FY15 • FY 2007 Schedule • Implement new Hurricane WRF Forecast Model • Maintain update of 6 basins per year initiated with the Storm Surge Supplemental Funding • FY 2008 Schedule • Provide operations and maintenance of Hurricane WRF Forecast Model • Continue updating Storm Surge model with 6 basins

18. Hurricane Katrina Supplemental: Systems O&M +$1.2M * Included in Hurricane Supplemental • Why • $6.6M provided in FY06 Hurricane Supplemental for portable equipment to deploy meteorologists to high impact areas and continuity of operations at WFOs, NWR, and ASOS located in hurricane prone areas due to lost power and/or communications due to Katrina: • 4 WFOs/RFCs • 5 NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) transmitters • 5 coastal Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) • Ongoing operations and maintenance funding is necessary to ensure these capital investments continue to provide the live-saving services they were intended to support What • Maintaining and keeping the portable systems and communications used by incident meteorologists (IMET) secure and up-to-date • Maintaining 150 emergency backup systems for ASOS • Maintaining 126 emergency backup systems for NWR All-Hazards • Continuing lease and maintenance of on-site satellite communications equipment: • 25 coastal WFOs/ 10 Next Generation Weather Radar sites /lease of satellite bandwidth

19. Hurricane Katrina Supplemental: Systems O&M +$1.2M FY 2008 Schedule: • Continue lease of IMET communications, maintain IMET equipment, provide tech refresh of IMET equipment ($250,000) • Provide maintenance and diesel fuel for 150 ASOS emergency backup power systems ($230,000) • Provide maintenance and diesel fuel for 126 NWR emergency backup power systems ($150,000) • Continue lease of satellite communications for 25 coastal WFOs and 10 coastal NEXRADS ($600,000)

20. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction -$5.2M Why • Recognizes Congressional Priority • Continues commitment of DOC in President’s Budgets since FY04. • Provides safe building for operations • Accelerates the transfer of newly developed scientific information through close collaboration with University of MD • Improved recruitment & retention of personnel What • Continues preparation of the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) for FY 2008 occupancy and operations. • Planned NCWCP investment profile to implement mission critical systems overlap during the transition/move from the current World Weather Building (WWB) to the NCWCP. • IT/Mission critical infrastructure: $3.27M • System furniture and related facility outfitting costs: $2.63M • GSA/NOAA project management costs: $1.5M • Rent, utilities, security, facility O&M: $6.7M

21. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction -$5.2M Schedule *The costs cited for FY 2009 onward represent increased lease payments for this facility and will be moved to the Operations, Research, and Facilities appropriation in FY 2009.

22. Tsunami Warning Program +$2.7M Why • Supports a Presidential & Congressional Commitment • Fulfills Administration Priority • Current tsunami warning system lacks necessarydetection and hazard mitigation capabilities for effective protection of life & property What • Preserves the Administration’s two year $24.0M investment ($14.5M in FY 2005 and $9.5M in FY 2006) • Expands the U.S. tsunami detection, warning and mitigation capabilities • Completes 39 station DART Network • Supports operations and maintenance for the 29 Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoy systems • Supports operations and maintenance of the expanded seismic and sea-level monitoring networks • Provides $1M for state of Alaska tsunami hazard mitigation programs (TWEAK)

23. Tsunami Warning Program +$2.7M FY 2008 Schedule • Deploy the final 10 DART systems • Operates and maintains the 29 DART systems in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins • Operates and maintains the expanded seismic and sea-level monitoring networks • Continues tsunami inundation modeling, and forecast system efforts for all U.S. communities at risk • Continues tsunami education/outreach activities including the TsunamiReady program to improve community preparedness for all U.S. communities at risk • Continues NOAA’s DART R&D program to improve DART reliability, cost-effectiveness, and capabilities

24. Tsunami Warning Program +$2.7M Budget

25. Tsunami Warning Program +$2.7M Performance

26. NOAA Profiler Network +$3.5M Why • Supports FY06 decision to operate Nat’l Profiler Network (NPN) per COEA study • By FY 2010 all unconverted Profilers willneed to be shut down • Improves NWS performance capabilityfor tornado, winter storm, severe storm,and flash flood forecasts and warnings,and aviation and fire weather warnings What • Sustains operations of NPN from research to operations by converting the operational frequency to not interfere with SARSAT capability on Galileo communications satellites and replacing obsolete components (required tech refresh) • Provides $1.83M for PAC • $1.67M for new systems O&M (ORF increase FY08 through FY09 only) • Demonstrated improvements to numerical weather prediction and local severe weather warnings: • 20% improvement in short-term model forecast accuracy for winds • Sustains current tornado warning lead time, without conversion the we would loose 3 minutes (WFOs within NPN domain vs. outside)

27. NOAA Profiler Network +$3.5M

28. NOAA Profiler Network +$3.5M • Frequency Change: $13.2M • Antennas –$5.97M • Transmitters – $5.87M • Parts – $0.79M • Project expenses (frequency change coordination) – $0.57M • (To be completed in FY10) • Technical Refresh: $14.01M • The technical refresh effort is completed concurrent with the frequency conversion. • Hardware: $10.81M • Software: $3.2M • (To be completed in FY11)

29. TAO Array: Tech Refresh +$1.1M Why • Obsolete components must be replaced to maintain and improve operational availability (technology is from late 80s/early 90s) • Guarantees continuance of critical data for climate models • Provides early detection of El Nino and La Nina to mitigate economic, ecological, and human impact • Improves predictions of potential for extreme climate episodes such as drought and flood • What • Replace obsolete components to sustain life cycle of 55 buoy TAO Array • Establishes tech refresh cycle (7-8 year)

30. TAO Array: Tech Refresh +$1.1M * Increased real-time observations necessary to calibrate and validate the coupled ocean/atmosphere Climate Forecast System will become available as refreshed buoys are deployed with improved communications capabilities.

31. TAO Array: Tech Refresh +$1.1M FY 2008 Schedule • On 17 buoys and spares: • Replace subsurface temperature and salinity sensors ($0.58M) • Replace CPU/data logger and modem ($0.26) • Replace compass, communications, sensor interfaces and enclosures ($0.26M)

32. NDBC Data Buoy Ocean Sensor O&M +$1.4M Why • U.S. has invested $12M to add oceanographic sensors to existing weather buoys at 98 sites • Subsurface sensors for temperature, salinity, current and directional wave measurement • Biofouling of subsurface sensors requires maintenance every 6-9 months rather than every three years for coastal weather-only buoys—increases ship time required to maintain buoys • Benefits coastal managers, fishing industry, search/rescue, hazardous spill mitigation • Oceanographic sensors add 900,000 observations per year What • Ongoing operations and maintenance funding needed to continue benefits of initial investment

33. NDBC Data Buoy Ocean Sensor O&M +$1.4M Performance FY 2008 Schedule • Provide field service and maintenance, including ship support ($1M) • Provide onshore infrastructure support ($0.05M) • Provide and maintain spare equipment/buoy to support field maintenance strategy ($0.3M)

34. Reallocations to Support Priorities: -$5.1M • U.S. Weather Research Program:-$1.5M • NOAA requests reductions to reflect funding of higher-priority requirements. • Reduce support for THORPEX • Including a multi-national experiment in the North Pacific targeted to improving high impact winter weather forecasts on the U.S. Pacific Coast. • Will end a grants program between NOAA and the academic community focused on accelerating 1-14 day forecasts. • Significantly reduces US participation (THORPEX funding reduced to FY05 levels: $1.0M) • Preserves Air Quality research, Hurricane Test Bed & high impact weather research • Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) (formally the Space Environment Center): -$1.3M • Reduces SWPC model development and transition of models to operations • Eliminates outreach efforts. • $6.3M funding level supports SWPC real-time monitoring and forecasting of solar and geophysical events. • Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS): -$2.3M • Reduction in ASOS/PI funding to reflect funding of higher-priority NWS requirements. • Eliminates NWS development and deployment of the ASOS Enhanced Precipitation Identifier (EPI) sensors. • Defers completion of scheduled ASOS ceilometer deployment from FY2009 to FY2013.

35. Local Warnings and Forecasts - ORF

36. Central Forecast Guidance - ORF

37. Systems Operations & Maintenance - ORF

38. Procurement, Acquisition, & Construction

39. FY 2008 NWS Overview • Maintains current services by providing $24.2M above FY07 PB, a 2.7% Increase: • ATBs at $20.9M - number 1 priority • Program Changes at $3.3M: • Provides operations & maintenance funding for expanded capabilities • Hurricane Supplemental projects: observations, modeling, system redundancy • Strengthen Tsunami Warning System • Modernized, redundant telecommunications hub • Continues planned technology and facilitiesinvestments/ Administration commitments • Reallocates funding to support priorities

40. Back Up

41. (ORF) NOAA Profiler Network O&M: +$1.7M Why • Addresses Congressional mandate • Supports FY06 decision to operate National Profiler Network (NPN) per COEA study • 32/37 Wind Profilers have frequency interference problems. These 32 profilers need to be converted from 404MHz to 449 MHz profilers. • All NPN sites (nearing 20 years in age) require tech refresh What • Establishes new NPN systems O&M infrastructure while continuing current system O&M (2 year effort). • Establishes new Monitoring Center at the Radar Operations Center (ROC): 4 contract FTEs: $0.8M • Provides for the development of new systems maintenance course at the NWSTC: 1 contract FTE: $0.1M • Provides funding to establish new NPN Depot repair test facility at the National Reconditioning Center (NRC): 1 contract FTE with test equipment: $0.55M • Provides funding to purchase test equipment for field Electronic Technicians: $0.22M

42. DART Locations

43. NOAA Profiler Network: +$1.7M Funding Plan: NPN O&M Costs (ORF) Schedule • FY08: 3 sites converted • FY09: 12 sites converted 12 sites refreshed • FY10: 17 sites converted 12 sites refreshed • FY11: 13 sites refreshed (includes 5 Profilers already operating at approved frequency)

44. (PAC) NOAA Profiler Network O&M: +$1.83M Technical Refresh: $14.0M • Hardware ($10.81M) • LINUX computer platform with backup and fail over circuitry - $11K per site x 35 sites = $0.4M. Technology refresh includes replacing the VAX system computers and re-hosting the software on a LINUX platform • One support system for the NWS Training Center - $0.5M • Refurbish one support system for National Reconditioning Center - $0.3 • Software re-host development system = $0.2M • Upgrade telecommunications equipment at each site (including modems) - $41K per site x 35 sites = $1.44M • Data Collection facility modems - $0.16M • Site uninterruptible power supplies - $92K per site x 30 sites = $2.76M • Quality Assurance and receiving test system - $0.2M • Site uninterruptible power supplies - $92K per site x 8 sites - $0.74M • Shelter replacement – 36K per site x 35 sites - $1.26M • Site electric distribution – 9K per site x 35 sites - $0.32M • Antenna array support structure replacement - $29K per site x 35 sites - $1.02M • RASS component replacement - $13K per site x 35 sites - $0.46M • Satellite communication equipment - $30K per site x 35 sites - $1.05M • Software ($3.2M) • Software re-host engineering to comply with NWS Enterprise Architecture - $1.8M Technology refresh includes replacing the VAX system computers and re-hosting the software on a LINUX platform. • Wind profiler site product formatter - $0.7M • Site data compression software- $0.2M • Data collection facility data decompression software - $0.2M • National Reconditioning Center and Quality assurance test software - $0.3M

45. NDBC Hurricane Supp. Buoy O&M +$3.0M * * Estimated costs – NWS will be required to cover costs exceeding $4.4M request

46. NWSTG Tech Refresh +$0.7M * By end of FY 2008 ** 99.9% system reliability results in 8.75 hour maximum unscheduled downtime per year; 99.99% system reliability results in .9 hours maximum unscheduled downtime per year; 99.25% results in 65.7 hours downtime; 98.89% results in 97 hours of downtime per year.