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Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots

Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots. David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory. SWOT Analysis. Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Just my perspective Biased, imperfect. Strengths. Strengths. Good results!. Strengths. Good results!. Largely independent of DA used,

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Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots

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  1. Warn-on-ForecastParting Shots David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

  2. SWOT Analysis • Strengths • Weaknesses • Opportunities • Threats • Just my perspective • Biased, imperfect

  3. Strengths

  4. Strengths • Good results!

  5. Strengths • Good results! Largely independent of DA used, as long as it is designed for convective scale flow!

  6. Strengths • Good results! • Great staff

  7. Strengths • Good results! • Great staff • Partnerships cimms

  8. Strengths • Good results! • Great staff • Partnerships cimms

  9. Strengths • Good results! • Great staff • Partnerships cimms

  10. Strengths • Good results! • Great staff • Partnerships • Engaged with social sciences from outset

  11. Weaknesses

  12. Weaknesses • Insufficient funding

  13. Weaknesses • Insufficient funding • Computer resources

  14. Weaknesses • Insufficient funding • Computer resources • Project management

  15. Weaknesses • Insufficient funding • Computer resources • Project management • Warn-on-Forecast still Research

  16. Weaknesses • Insufficient funding • Computer resources • Project management • Warn-on-Forecast still Research • Yet already having to address R2O

  17. Weaknesses • Insufficient funding • Computer resources • Project management • Warn-on-Forecast still Research • Yet already having to address R2O • This makes life particularly challenging

  18. Weaknesses • Insufficient funding • Computer resources • Project management • Warn-on-Forecast still Research • Yet already having to address R2O • This makes life particularly challenging • Developing people as well as technology

  19. Weaknesses • Insufficient funding • Computer resources • Project management • Partnerships

  20. Weaknesses • Insufficient funding • Computer resources • Project management • Partnerships • Focus on tornadicsupercells

  21. Weaknesses • Insufficient funding • Computer resources • Project management • Partnerships • Focus on tornadicsupercells • Social science connection

  22. Opportunities

  23. Opportunities • Additional funding

  24. Opportunities • Additional funding • Seek our own funding • GOES-R support via SPC/NSSL

  25. Opportunities • Additional funding • NOAA planning • Radar Vision • NWS Roadmap • Radar Functional Requirements for 2030

  26. Opportunities • Additional funding • NOAA planning • Expanded partnerships • NCEP/EMC, WPC, AWC • SSD Chiefs • ROC, WDTB, JCSDA • Within NSSL and other partner groups cimms

  27. Threats

  28. Threats • NOAA bureaucracy

  29. Threats • NOAA bureaucracy • Too much focus on trees instead of the forest

  30. Threats • NOAA bureaucracy • Too much focus on trees instead of the forest • Ourselves

  31. Threats • NOAA bureaucracy • Too much focus on trees instead of the forest • Ourselves

  32. Parting Shots

  33. Parting Shots • WoF is doing very well

  34. Parting Shots • WoF is doing very well • Weathered federal downturn

  35. Parting Shots • WoF is doing very well • Weathered federal downturn • Partnershipsintact

  36. Parting Shots • WoF is doing very well • Weathered federal downturn • Partnershipsintact • Could use some attention.

  37. Parting Shots • WoF is doing very well • Weathered federal downturn • Partnershipsintact • Could use some attention. • All partners need to help with this!

  38. Parting Shots • WoF is doing very well • Weathered federal downturn • Partnershipsintact • Could use some attention. • All partners need to help with this! • New funding possible if we work together

  39. Parting Shots • WoF is doing very well • Weathered federal downturn • Partnershipsintact • Could use some attention. • All partners need to help with this! • New funding possible if we work together • Biggest threat is ourselves

  40. The hardest challenge in creating new technology is not eliminating uncertainty in advance but adapting to it as the work uncovers it. Clay Shirky, Professor of New Media New York University In “The key to successful tech management”

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