LAW FOR THE FUTURE LEFIS General Assembly Firenze 10-11 February 2006

1. LAW FOR THE FUTURELEFIS General AssemblyFirenze 10-11 February 2006 RNDr.Bohumír Štědroň, CSc Faculty of Informatics and Management Univerzita Hradec Kralove, CZECH REPUBLIC stedron@seznam.cz

2. The new forecasting method: the recursive triangle LAW FOR THE FUTURE By Bohumir Stedron

3. New Trends: What are the new trends shaping the Future? Technology development is accelerating and an increasing number of new fields are being created and exploding new ideas onto the market. We can face new words such as hyper regulated society, the latent legal market, virtual private networks, convergence of computers and television, global telecommunications, legal service emerging as an information service, convergence of ICT and Artificial Intelligence and many others.

4. The new forecasting procedure: the recursive triangle:The Future consists of three “triangle” components:-Trends-Discontinuities-Top Decision

5. Trends can be analyzed by using usual mathematical and statistical techniques.Discontinuities represent general or partial negation of trends. Top Decision(Manhattan or Apollo projects for example) can be simulated by artificial neural network.By using these three triangle procedures recursively like in GPS (Newell, Shaw, Simon and Ernst), we obtain so called Search Trees: the possible scenarios incorporating new trends and discontinuities.

6. The possible scenarios :What's next for Law and Artificial Intelligence development and applications? Here are a few possible scenarios incorporating new trends and discontinuities.The Age of Merging (2010-2020)The United States, Germany, Japan, France, Ireland, Finland,and China represent the leading countries in high technology R&D.All laws enacted by legislatures in Washington and Brusselsrely heavily on AI-based expert systems.

7. Intelligent computers and telecommunication networks allowvoice command for 3-D Internet, radio and television, mobile phones,medical care, and other services.Intelligent computers and telecommunication networks dominatethe pedagogical process. As information technologies, biotechnologies, andnanotechnologies merge, so do the scientific disciplines developingthem.Direct human-Internet communication is made possible with animplanted chip (later, without chips).

8. New discoveries lead to quantum and DNA computers, as well asnew materials incorporating low levels of intelligence.Antiviral programs destroy the occurrence of artificial lifein order to avoid chaos like the blackouts that rocked Canada and theUnited States in August 2003.

9. New laws are enacted to guarantee better health and vastlyimproved social well being as AI development accelerates. For example,laws will protect against electromagnetic smog, regulate the use of homerobots, protect data more stringently, prohibit the use of computertechnologies in some segments of culture and arts (to avoid thedomination of synthetic TV celebrities, for instance), and prohibit theconstruction of computer programs with self-preservation instincts.

10. Age of AI Self-Reliance (2020-2030)Intelligent computers and telecommunications networks managetheir own repairs, scientific research, and production.New materials incorporate high levels of intelligence.Direct communication among humans, computers, and cetaceans ispossible using implanted chips (later, without chips).New laws recognize human rights for some robots.

11. The Non-Mysterious Age (2030-2040)A new, holographic model of the world replaces the geometrical one.AI systems mine holographic information from the environment.New explanations and applications emerge for mysteriousphenomena, such as extrasensory perception and the use of energy fieldsin medicine and the military (bioenergy and/or psychotronics).AI makes it possible to create a copy of any human being'sintellect; laws regulating and protecting these copies quickly follow.

12. In connection with the above facts and predictions, only a system of new laws can guarantee better health and much better social well-being: • -Prohibition of the construction of computer programs with instinct of self-preservation; • -Law for protection against electromagnetic smog; • -Law for protection against civilizations diseases; • -Law regulation the usage of robots and biosphere; • -Regulation of using ICT in some segments of culture and arts.

13. Summarizing the current results and new trends, seems obvious that the radical changes of the whole legal and political system have already started... Only setting the parameters of the legislative system (for example transforming the Office for Personal Data Protection to Office for Human Identity Protection) will resolve whether we will become rather Borgs from the Star Trek or independent citizens.

14. Gidley M.J.,Hampson G.P.: The evolution of futures in school education, Futures 37,2005 pp.255-271 • Katsh E.,Rifkin J.:Online Dispute Resolution, Jossey-Bass, San Francisco, 2001 • Newel, A Simon H.A.:(1961) Computer Simulation of human thinking.Science,vol.134,pp.2011-2017Potůček, M. et al.: Manuál prognostickým metod, Praha 2006 • Stedron,B.: Forecasts for Artificial Intelligence, FUTURIST, March-April 2004 • Stedron,B.: Künstliche Intelligenz, Zukünfte 49/2005 Berlin 2005