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Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

Local government in 2013…. Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI. Ben.page@ipsos.com @benatipsosmori www.ipsos-mori.com. Impressive reductions in spending…. Real budget increase 2010–11 to 2015–16.

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Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

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  1. Local government in 2013… Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI Ben.page@ipsos.com @benatipsosmori www.ipsos-mori.com

  2. Impressive reductions in spending…. Real budget increase 2010–11 to 2015–16 Note: Figures show cumulative change in total DEL after economy-wide inflation. Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies, July 2013

  3. Half full or half empty?

  4. Formerly loony councils now pretty good! Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Hackney Council runs things? % of residents satisfied with Hackney Council % satisfied with council Year of survey Base: Hackney Residents Survey All respondents (1,016). Fieldwork dates 5 January – 6 March 2013; Inner LB Residents Survey (1,153, 16+, face to face ). Fieldwork dates 18 April - 28 June 2011; 2011 Ipsos MORI National Capibus, (875, 15+ face to face). Fieldwork October 2011.

  5. Most of the public hasn’t seen much change in their council’s services Q On balance, do you think services provided by your local council have got better or worse over the last 12 months, or do you think they have stayed the same? Base: 1,007 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain, August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

  6. No sign of a crisis in trust Trust % Base: Core sample in England; (2001: 9,270, 2003: 8,859, 2005: 9,104, 2007-08: 8,729, 2008-09: 8,706, 2009-10: 8,677, 2010-11: 9,521, Aug 2012 – April 2013: 6,915) • Source: Citizenship Survey/ Community Life Survey

  7. Nationally as many services improving as deteriorating Do you think each service has got better or worse in the last five years, or has it stayed the same? Base: 1,031 Source: BBC October 2013

  8. Street lighting ok – not road condition…. • Q2. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with…? Street lighting Overall Cycle routes/facilities Road condition Buses Base: valid responses among 53,676 British adults (70 LAs), July-August 2013 • Source: m2i

  9. Clear what’s getting worse • Q2. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with…? Change + Reducing traffic +6.0 Safer roads +1.1 Pavements +0.7 Local buses +0.5 Taxi services +0.5 Rights of Way -0.3 Demand responsive transport -0.4 -0.8 Community transport Cycle routes -0.8 Street lighting -1.4 Overall* -3.9 Highway condition -10.5 • *vs 2010 Base: valid responses among 53,676 British adults (70 LAs), July-August 2013 • Source: m2i

  10. Not always been like this How satisfied or dissatisfied would you say you are with road maintenance in this area? Source: Ipsos MORI for CSS Base: 1,000-2,000 GB adults

  11. Dissatisfaction in County Councils – from 53% to 81%... 70 LAs Base: valid responses among 53,676 English adults (70 LAs), July-August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI

  12. Among users…look at the bottom…. Do you think each service has got better or worse in the last five years, or has it stayed the same? Base: Response from those who use the service Source: BBC October 2013 Net score +27 +21 +20 +12 +7 +6 +1 -4 -10

  13. Care for people with dementia is considered poor Q How well do you feel that these groups are currently cared for by the NHS in your local area? Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker Base: Adults aged 16+ in England, December 2012 (1004)

  14. Almost 2 in 3 lack confidence that older people receiving care services are treated with dignity and respect How confident are you or not that older people who receive care services (such as help with getting dressed or washing) either at home or in a care home are treated with dignity and respect? Source: Ipsos MORI/Age UK Base: General public aged 50+ (971) 8-26 March 2013 Very confident Don’t know Fairly confident Confident 28% Not at all confident Not confident 63% Not very confident

  15. Majority haven’t noticed changes to service – BUT... To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements Base: 1,015British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI/ NLGN, January 2013 Around one in four people agree with both statements.... Agree = 29% Conservatives, 60% Labour

  16. BUT… although economic worry on wane nationally, locally public growing concerned about what is yet to come Q How concerned, if at all, are you about the effect of cuts to local council services on you and your family in the next 12 months? Concerned 55% Concerned 66% Base: 1,007 adults aged 18+ in Britain, August 2013 / 1,015 adults aged 18+ in Britain, January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

  17. Varies as you’d expect… % very or fairly concerned about the effect of the cuts on them and their families Base: All members of the public interviewed online in GB (1,009); fieldwork, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI

  18. Public contradiction about the tough road ahead presents challenges for how things are managed in the future Q To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI/ NLGN

  19. At a time when councils have to manage this...

  20. Generational change makes your jobs harder

  21. Different generations now have very different expectations “How much do you agree or disagree that … the creation of the welfare state is one of Britain's proudest achievements.” % % Agree/Strongly agree

  22. A noble goal...what would make you happiest? % Double my income Better Health Base: 2,015 interviewed face to face in home in GB aged 15 +, 20-25 Sept

  23. The public claim to be in good health Q How is your health in general? Would you say it was... Base: Adults aged 16+ in England (at least 4,500 per wave) Source: Health Survey for England % Very good/ good health Very bad/ bad health Data up to 2002 are unweighted. From 2003 onwards, data have been weighted for non-response

  24. The facts say …..obesity levels Source: Health Survey for England

  25. The facts say - booze consumed Source: Health Survey for England

  26. They are aware of the big health issues Q Thinking generally, what are the biggest health problems facing people today? What else? All mentions above 2% Base: 1,004 English adults aged 16+, Dec 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker

  27. And they say they recognise the importance of lifestyle Q Looking at this card, which factors, if any, do you think have the biggest impact on your chances of living a long and healthy life? Base: 1,994 British adults, Aug 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI

  28. They claim price is key to helping them be healthier Q Which of the following would encourage you to lead a healthier lifestyle? Lower prices for using leisure centres Lower prices for healthy food Better sports and leisure facilities Having more time Being told to by my doctor for health reasons Having more healthy food available in local shops Better access to weight loss services Better information about how to eat healthily Better information about how to be more physically active Having help with my caring responsibilities Better access to stop smoking services Advice and support to stop/cut down drinking alcohol Nothing, I already lead a healthy lifestyle Base: 4,824 adults, Sept - Dec 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

  29. How do human beings make choices/decisions ? Gather pertinent information Process pertinent information Calculate optimal choice Rational decision-making process Decidebased on faulty cal-culations Decide without fully processing the facts Decide without all the data/using irrelevant data Short- circuits of the ‘rational’ process Traditional analysis of human decision making by economists

  30. Case study – five a day Source: 5 a Day campaigns in Argentina, Chile, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Spain, UK, US

  31. Re-thinking approaches: the limitation of communications Have you eaten any fruit and vegetables in the last 24 hours? Base: 1,732, 2 February 27-March 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI

  32. What are behaviour change interventions? “Spillage was reduced by up to 80%”

  33. Any aspect of the choice architecture that alters people’s behaviour in a predictable way Thaler & Sunstein, Nudge

  34. Successful change campaigns use a mix of informing, enabling, incentivising and enforcing Inform Enable Influence Incentivise Enforce Source: Websites, press search

  35. But we can also learn from behavioural science • People make choices without going through a full ‘rational’ decision-making process’ • Certain biases pre-dispose people to short-cut the rational decision-making process • Using these biases in a systematic way can make campaigns significantly more likely to succeed Inform Enable Influence Incentivise Enforce

  36. Or even more simply….

  37. 65 Question What percentage of African countries are members of the United Nations?

  38. 65 Evidence – anchoring Numbers shown on “roulette” wheel Mean estimate of respondents 10 65 25% 45% Source: Kahneman and Tversky, 1974

  39. The significance of framing/anchoring Imagine you have a life-threatening illness and your doctor has told you that you need an operation to treat it. How likely, if at all, are you to have this operation if your doctor tells you that... Base: c. 500 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 Avoid communications on “negatives”

  40. Example bias – anchoring People’s estimates are swayed by data suggested to them beforehand, even when they know the data is irrelevant or false. Source: Daniel Kahneman, Daniel Tversky (1974); McKinsey synthesis

  41. Case study – anchoring! Source: 6 a Day campaign in Denmark

  42. Example bias – Social norms People tend to follow their peer group – if they see many people doing something, they aim to do it too. Source: Bandura, Grusec and Menlove (1967);Milgram et al (1969); Cialdini; McKinsey synthesis

  43. Example bias – reciprocity You are more likely to obtain a large commitment if you obtain a small one first. Source: Festinger, 1957; Cialdini (2006); McKinsey synthesis

  44. Behavioural Norms we can use…. Short-circuits of rational decision-making process Our Biases Reciprocity Liking Status quo Decide without all the data/using irrelevant data Consistency Scarcity Endowment Social norms Authority Availability/ recency Decide without fully processing all the facts Choice overload Justifiability Anchoring Framing/ contrast Regret aversion Hyperbolic discounting Decide based on faulty calculations Loss aversion Certainty preference Probability misassessment Mental accounting Breakpoints False memory

  45. Smarter design to reduce error Source: ‘Applying behavioural insights to reduce error, fraud and debt,’ Cabinet Office, 2012

  46. Using social norms

  47. Optimising messages

  48. Loft insulation – its not money Source: Behavioural Insights Team, 2012

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