1 / 14

Exchange Rate Regimes and Agricultural Trade

Exchange Rate Regimes and Agricultural Trade. Tola Oyeyemi Emma Phillips Gary Xia. Think about this…. Images: http://www.dw.de/nuclear-waste-shipment-continues-to-spark-determined-protests/a-6201316 http://www.marxist.com/greek-december-short-balance-sheet.htm

walter
Download Presentation

Exchange Rate Regimes and Agricultural Trade

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Exchange Rate Regimes and Agricultural Trade Tola Oyeyemi Emma Phillips Gary Xia

  2. Think about this… Images: http://www.dw.de/nuclear-waste-shipment-continues-to-spark-determined-protests/a-6201316 http://www.marxist.com/greek-december-short-balance-sheet.htm http://www.apostropher.com/blog/archives/001542.html

  3. Question What is the effect of agricultural trade on exchange rate regimes?

  4. Background on Independent Variable Decline Still a Loud Voice • Globalization, Industrialization • <1960 = 30% of all merch trade • By 2000, <9% • Dwight Watson • Thousands in damages • 10 block area shut down in DC • Federal offices evacuated • In 2012 alone: • Serbia, India, Paraguay Anderson, 2010, p. 3009 Leonnig, 2003 United Press Int’l, 2012; Prensa Latina, 2012; The Times of India, 2012) Image: http://www.apostropher.com/blog/archives/001542.html .

  5. Background on Dependent Variable • Exchange rate regimes: • Float, fix, peg • The Gold Standard Bretton-Woods Float • Mundell-Fleming Trilemma: • Free flow $, exΔ rate certainty, policy-making autonomy • “Flexibility vs. credibility”(Singer, 2010) Elwell, 2011; Singer, 2010 Image: http://www.voxeu.org/article/empirical-evidence-monetary-policy-trilemma-1970

  6. Hypotheses Hypotheses Hypotheses Hypotheses Hypotheses Hypotheses Hypotheses Hypotheses If a country has large… They would move towards a… Share of GDP in the agricultural sector Share of GDP in agricultural exporting Share of GDP in Domestic Agriculture • Pegged Rate • Pegged Rate • Floating Rate

  7. Methods • Data Sets: Singer & WDI • 1980 to 2008 • Independent Variable  Agricultural Economy • Agriculture’s %GDP per capita • Exports in Agriculture (% of GDP) • Domestic Agriculture (% of GDP) • Dependent Variable  Exchange Rate Regimes • IMF scale: 1 = fully fixed, 4 = fully floating

  8. More Variables • Test for Robustness • Control Variables Lagged Dependent Variable -Remittances -Exports -Reserves -Democracy -Inflation -Manufacturing -A few more…

  9. Results

  10. Conclusions • Agriculture (%GDP) insignificant • Exports consistently negative and significant • Last hypothesis unsupported • Remittances insignificant when agriculture is accounted for

  11. Analysis If a country has large… They would move towards a… Share of GDP in the agricultural sector Share of GDP in agricultural exporting Share of GDP in Domestic Agriculture • Pegged Rate • Pegged Rate • Floating Rate

  12. Why are these results important? • Exchange rates are highly manipulated • What influences exchange rates? • Many variables to consider • Well-being of people

  13. Continuing our Work • Introduction to larger macroeconomic issues • Looking at international trade as a whole • More accurate and comprehensive data • Imports, more countries, etc.

  14. Thank You! Questions? Comments? Concerns?

More Related