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Who is tulsa ? …a closer look at a changing city, county and metro area

Who is tulsa ? …a closer look at a changing city, county and metro area. September 12, 2013. Prepared by the Community Service Council Supported by the Metropolitan Human Services Commission. “You cannot improve what you do not understand”. Thinking in the Future Tense ,

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Who is tulsa ? …a closer look at a changing city, county and metro area

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  1. Who is tulsa?…a closer look at a changing city, county and metro area September 12, 2013 Prepared by the Community Service Council Supported by the Metropolitan Human Services Commission

  2. “You cannot improve what you do not understand” Thinking in the Future Tense, Jennifer James, American Cultural Anthropologist

  3. … and we all must better understand the power of population and large numbers as we plan for the future

  4. Starting a Possibly Difficult Conversation About Tulsa’s Future, Its Challenges and Opportunities… Then Aggressively Developing Strategies for Creating Our Preferred Future Out of All Possible Futures

  5. The Tulsa We Knew and Know, and seek to improve • Historically dynamic, innovative, and high quality of life • A community with enormous potential… • To be realized only through better understanding and engaging of change… • Willingness and ability to see and embrace new challenges and opportunities, and… • Greater wisdom, and humility for shaping and sustaining needed action.

  6. A few predictive messages… paying attention and acting now or paying the cost later, our choice The following information refers to the City of Tulsa or Tulsa County, except when referring to data for the state of Oklahoma.

  7. overview • #1: City not growing, and county only slightly • #2: profound changes significantly shaping Tulsa area population and future • #3: population Spatial shifts and distinct concentrations powerful and growing • #4: Education and workforce dramatically impacted, by changes • #5: Poverty and low income, a huge and costly effect • #6: What’s ahead to 2030? • #7: Oh yes, and Don’t forget Tulsa is in Oklahoma that is ranked…

  8. #1: City not growing, and County only slightly • Between 2000-2010 the City lost over 1,000 residents, County gained just over 40,000, almost all due to Hispanic population growth. • Increasingly uneven geographic distribution. • North and west continued long term trend of losing population. • Available housing, especially more rental, helping shape location of population. • Many vacant housing areas in parts of City and County. • Eastern areas rapidly growing due to Hispanic increases. • Young children concentrated primarily in few areas to the east (east Tulsa and Broken Arrow) and in Owasso.

  9. Population Trends: Tulsa County and City of Tulsa, 1980 to 2030

  10. Census Tracts Of Total Population Gain And Loss: 2000 to 2010 58.3% of Tulsa County's 175 census tracts lost population (102) between 2000 and 2010, while 65.9% of the City of Tulsa's 126 tracts declined in population (83) Widespread loss…

  11. Census Tracts Comprising The Top 25% Of The Total Population, 2010 25% (151,241) of the total population of Tulsa County plus the City of Tulsa part of Osage County live in 14% of the census tracts (24). Imbalanced population… Sour Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census.

  12. Hispanic Population Numeric Change 2000 to 2010 The Hispanic population has experienced dramatic growth in both the County and the City since 2000, with increases of 32,966 (+98%) in the County, and 27,155 (+97%) in the City Explosive growth to east and northeast… Sour Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 & 2010 Census.

  13. Total Occupied Housing Units, City Of Tulsa & Tulsa County, 2000 And 2010 • Tulsa lost 1,768 occupied housing units between 2000 and 2010, a loss of 1.1%, while Tulsa County gained 14,845 units, for an increase of 6.5%. 2000 2010 Sour Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 & 2010 Censuses.

  14. Numeric Change In Occupied Housing Units, City Of Tulsa & Tulsa County, 2000 & 2010 • The owner-occupied housing units losses are concentrated within the city (except far south and southeast) and a few areas right outside the city. The gains in this category are found in southern and northeastern parts of county and far south and southeastern Tulsa. • Gains in renter-occupied units are found throughout the city and county, but primarily in far southern parts of the city and Owasso/Collinsville area. Renter-occupied Owner-occupied Sour Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 & 2010 Censuses.

  15. Percent Change In Occupied Housing Units, City Of Tulsa & Tulsa County, 2000 & 2010 • The owner-occupied housing units loss affected all parts of the city. • Dramatic increases in renter-occupied housing units occurred in south and far west parts of the county and in Owasso/Collinsville area. 2000 2010 Renter-occupied Owner-occupied Sour Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 & 2010 Censuses.

  16. Newly Developed Residential Parcels And Vacant Residential Parcels (Oct. 2010) Vacant residential parcels shown in orange/clay. Newly developed residential parcels shown in green. Major concentrations of vacant parcels in north and west. New development largely in suburbs…

  17. #2: profound changes significantly shaping Tulsa area population and future • Fertility rates…non-Hispanic whites and blacks are not replacing themselves as compared to Hispanics • Aging…population age 65 and over soaring, projected to be just over 16% of population by 2030 as compared to 9% in 2010. (Tulsa County) • Little growth among young, except Hispanic… non-Hispanic under age 18 decreased almost 8,000 or about 6% between 2000- 2010; Hispanic increase 14,200 or 116%

  18. Population Trends And Projections By Age Group: Oklahoma, 1970-2030 Sour Source: US Census Bureau, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 & 2010 Census; Oklahoma Department of Commerce, 2012 Demographic State of the State Report: Oklahoma State and County Population Projection 2075.

  19. Hispanic Youth (<18) 2010 Hispanic youth now number 26,394 in Tulsa County and 21,652 in the City. Hispanics are the most populous minority group among the under 18 population in both the city and the county. Largest youth minority group… Sour Source: US Census Bureau 2010 Census.

  20. Hispanic Very Young Population (<5) 2010 Largest very young minority group… • Hispanic youth under age 5 now number 9,231 in Tulsa County and 7,874 in the City. • Among the very young, Hispanics are now the most populous minority group in both Tulsa County and Tulsa Sour Source: US Census Bureau 2010 Census.

  21. #3: population Spatial shifts and distinct concentrations powerful and growing • Child population among all races and ethnicities highly concentrated in east and northeast part of city and county. • Concentrations of aging persons growing in the south and east— • Census Tract 87: • North of Southern Hills Country Club • 2007-11 population = 3,028 • 35% of residents are age 60 and over and 25% age 65 and over • only 41 children under age 5 (1%) • Census Tract 76.13: • West of St. Francis Hospital • 2007-11 population = 3,218 • 32% of residents are age 60 and over and 22% age 65 and over • only 126 children under age 5 (4%)

  22. Children Under 5 as Proportion of Total Population, 2010 Both highest and lowest shares within City… • Tulsa County’s total of 44,711 children under 5 represent 7.4% of total county population. • Tulsa’s 29,479 children under 5 represent 7.5% of the total city population. Source: US Census Bureau 2010 Census.

  23. Top 33% of Tracts in Share of City’s Population Under 5, 2010 Concentration of youth… • City of Tulsa is home to 29,479 children under 5, 33% of whom (10,369) live in these 21 tracts(16%). Source: US Census Bureau 2010 Census.

  24. Aging In Specific Areas: Tract 87 Concentration of the aged… • 2007-11 population = 3,028 • 25% of the population of census tract 87 are 65 and older; 7% are 85 and older • This compares to 12% 65 and older and 2% 85 and older in Tulsa County • Only 9% are under 18 • The old-age dependency ratio is 38.4, which means there are 38 persons age 65+ for every 100 persons of working age, or 2.6 workers per person age 65+, compared to ratio of 19.4 in Tulsa County (5 workers per person 65+) Source: US Census Bureau 2007-11 American Community Survey.

  25. Highest Concentrations Of Persons Age 65+ In Tulsa County, 2010 Concentration of the elderly… • Tulsa County is home to 72,856 persons age 65+, 16% of whom (11,586) live in these 16 tracts (9%) in which at least 20% of the population is age 65+ • All but one of these high concentration census tracts lie within the City of Tulsa • Tulsa is home to 48,839 persons age 65+, 22% of whom (10,825) live in these 15 tracts ( 12%) • 12% of both Tulsa’s and Tulsa County’s populations are age 65 and older Source: US Census Bureau 2010 US Census.

  26. #4: Education and workforce dramatically impacted, by changes • Almost 30% of TPS students are Hispanic, and 25% of Union. Education workforce doesn’t match…not even close. Major cultural and language challenges, as well with other ethnic groups. • Similar racial/ethnic trends in other area school districts. • Slightly less than 9% of Hispanics over age 25 have a four-year degree: by 2030, 20-25% of workforce projected to be Hispanic. • Human development workforce projected to shrink due mainly to aging and retirements. • Nationally, 50% of teacher workforce projected to retire by 2022. • Overall workforce will be shrinking, especially among teens and young adults, but have more older workers and persons with some disabilities.

  27. Student Enrollment By Race & Hispanic Origin, Tulsa, Union & the Remaining Public School Districts in the County, Sy2012-13 Source: Oklahoma State Department of Education.

  28. Geographic Comparison Of Educational Attainment, 2008-10: Percentage Of Hispanic Population Age 25+ With Associates Or Bachelors Degrees Or Higher Note: Values shown are midpoint estimates within a 90% confidence range. Prepared by the Community Service Council with support from the Metropolitan Human Services Commission. Source: US Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey.

  29. #5: Poverty and low income, a huge and costly effect • 15% of County and 19% of City population lives in poverty • 35% of children under age 6 and 10% of persons age 65 and older in the City live in poverty • Growing poverty among the increasing elderly population • Children in low income households spreading in large numbers beyond the city • Poverty strong correlate to poor early reading

  30. 185% Poverty Rates: Total Population, 2007-11 Concentrated low income areas… • Number in poverty: • Tulsa Co.: 189,803 • Tulsa: 151,146 • Percent in poverty: • Tulsa County: 32.4% • Tulsa: 39.6% Source: US Census Bureau 2007-11 American Community Survey.

  31. 185%Poverty Rates: Under 6, 2007-11 Concentrated low income areas among youth… • Number in poverty: • Tulsa Co.: 26,237 • Tulsa: 21,435 • Percent in poverty: • Tulsa County: 50.1% • Tulsa: 62.3% Source: US Census Bureau 2007-11 American Community Survey.

  32. 185% Poverty Rates: 65 & Older, 2007-11 Concentrated low income areas among elderly… • Number in poverty: • Tulsa Co.: 18,334 • Tulsa: 13,651 • Percent in poverty: • Tulsa County: 26.4% • Tulsa: 28.7% Source: US Census Bureau 2007-11 American Community Survey.

  33. Free and Reduced Lunch Participation Tulsa Public Schools, School Year 2012-13 • Total TPS free lunch participation = 30,871 (76.8%) • Total TPS reduced lunch participation = 3,961 (9.9%)

  34. Free and Reduced Lunch Participation Northwest Tulsa County Suburban School Districts, School Year 2012-13 • Total non-TPS free lunch participation = 27,303 (36.1%) • Total non-TPS reduced lunch participation = 7,119 (9.4%)

  35. Free and Reduced Lunch Participation Southeast Tulsa County Suburban School Districts, School Year 2012-13 • Total non-TPS free lunch participation = 27,303 (36.1%) • Total non-TPS reduced lunch participation = 7,119 (9.4%)

  36. Union Public Elementary Schools, Reading Score And Percent Of Low Income Students – The Close Connection

  37. #6: What’s ahead to 2030? • Fertility rates… not anticipated to change, possibly slightly lower among Hispanics. • Births to teens… down but cumulatively still a big number over time with almost 1,000 year in recent years (prelim. 2009-12) in Tulsa County. • Births to unmarried couples… close to 45%. • Maternal education levels… 60% of infants are born to mothers with high school education or less; 23% with less than a high school education. • Multiple births… Many women of most all races and ethnicities with these low education levels have multiple births. • Continued growth of racial/ethnic minorities… Especially Asians and Hispanics.

  38. #6: What’s ahead to 2030? (cont’d) • Workforce increasingly complex and critical… Everyone that is going to be hired for a job has already been born today; more Hispanic and elderly. • Educating and training for all… at least 70% of labor force need some post high school degree, certificate, or award of skill, a huge challenge. • Success unusually difficult… population of young people who will be primarily lower income, poor, and first generation high school grads and beyond. • Aged dependency ratio growing… in 2010 there were almost 2 persons age 25-44 for every person age 65 and over, and by 2030 that number is projected to shrink to 1.4. In 1970 it was 3 to 1.

  39. Dependency Ratios, Oklahoma, 1970 To 2030 Projections • Dependency ratio = population age <18 & 65+ / population age 18-64 x 100 • Old-age dependency ratio = population age 65+ / population age 18-64 x 100 • Child dependency ratio = population age <18 / population age 18-64 x 100 Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Census, 2010 Census; Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 2.0. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2011 http://www.nhgis.org; Oklahoma Department of Commerce, 2012 Demographic State of the State Report: Oklahoma State and County Population Projections through 2075.

  40. Trends In Selected Age Groups, Oklahoma, 1970 To 2030 Projections Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Census, 2010 Census; Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 2.0. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2011 http://www.nhgis.org; Oklahoma Department of Commerce, 2012 Demographic State of the State Report: Oklahoma State and County Population Projections through 2075.

  41. #7: Oh yes, and Don’t forget Tulsa is in Oklahoma that is ranked… • #2 in incarceration rates • #2 in persons with mental illness • #48 in per capita spending on mental health • #13 in suicides • #15 in income inequality • #48 in persons with 4 year college degree • #48 in per pupil expenditures on elementary and secondary education • #45 in persons 19-64 (22%) who are uninsured and tied for #16 for persons under 19 (17%)

  42. Challenges Not Unique to Tulsa: what the experts are saying and what to do

  43. 1. Historic Population Change • “The global fall in fertility, even if it does not continue to deepen and spread, is creating a world for which few individuals, and nations, are prepared. Simply stated, this is because population growth and the human capital it creates are part of the foundation upon which modern economies, as well as the modern welfare state, are built.” The Empty Cradle, Phillip Longman

  44. 2. Innovation a Key To Survival • “…once a city attracts some innovative workers and innovative companies, its economy changes in ways that make it even more attractive to other innovators. … this is what is causing the Great Divergence among American communities, as some cities experience an increased concentration of good jobs, talent, and investment and others are in free fall. It is a trend that is reshaping not just our economy but our entire society in profound ways. It implies that a growing part of inequality in America reflects not just a class divide but a geographical divide. “ New Geography of Jobs, EnricoMoretti

  45. 3. Full-employment Will Not Be Our Friend… As Boomers Bail • “As 78 million of us retire, there won’t be enough qualified workers behind us to fill the jobs and grow the economy that’s necessary to support all us new dependents…Communities and companies will fight each other for jobs and qualified workers. Some communities will win and prosper. Others will fail and will be a mess…” • “Managing our communities is a whole new game now… Most of us have no idea what’s in store. I want this book to change the way you think. If enough people understand the gravity of the situation, community dialogue will change. Only then will priorities change and solutions come.” When Boomers Bail, Mark Lautman

  46. Creating New Vision and Action

  47. “Above all, we need to decide which America we want as our future – the America of ever-increasing educational levels, rising productivity, and pragmatic optimism, or the America of deteriorating skills, shrinking horizons, and paralyzing pessimism. We are at one of those major historical crossroads that determine the fate of nations for decades to come.” New Geography of Jobs, Moretti, p. 249

  48. “Population aging and decline need not lead to global depression, environmental strain, or war, but they may well. Nations that do not adapt to the new demographic realities of the twenty-first century – primarily by fostering more rewards to parents and other caregivers, investing heavily in the education of the next generation, and pursuing strategies to allow for more productive aging – stand in danger of being consumed by debt, of losing their ability to innovate, and ultimately of losing their identity.” The Empty Cradle, Longman, p. 44

  49. “Catastrophic full employment isn’t going to happen in every community, but it has the potential to constrain our national economy enough to make us poorer, weaker, more divided and meaner… But if the Boomers continue to bail, and the schools continue to fail, the majority of U.S. communities will be unable to keep their economies balanced with the service demands of their populations. For these losers, it will feel liked perpetual recession. My economic development colleagues and I have three choices: deny, despair, or innovate. For those who choose to innovate our way out, this will be the most exciting time… There are no silver-bullet solutions. But there are things we can do. Some of them are right in front of us, and we should be doing them anyway. “Believe!” When Boomers Bail, Lautman, p. 197

  50. And the Winners Will Look Like… • Visionary • Apprehensive, but unafraid • Innovative • Well-educated • Connected • Predictive • Leaders-knowledge economy • Create value at a high rate

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