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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. June 21, 2013

Going Up for the Rebound. On Behalf of Carolinas Ready Mixed Concrete Association. By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. June 21, 2013. First Pitch. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2014*. Source: International Monetary Fund. * 2013-2014 data are projections.

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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. June 21, 2013

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  1. Going Up for the Rebound On Behalf of Carolinas Ready Mixed Concrete Association By: AnirbanBasu Sage Policy Group, Inc. June 21, 2013

  2. First Pitch

  3. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2014* Source: International Monetary Fund *2013-2014 data are projections

  4. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2013 Projected Source: International Monetary Fund

  5. Debt by Country2012 Source: IMF

  6. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 Growth Source: Yahoo! Finance

  7. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2012 Growth Source: Yahoo! Finance

  8. S&P Select Sector Performance2012 Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s

  9. First Quarter Earnings for Select CorporationsEarnings per Share Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s

  10. Recession Watchas of May 2013 Source: Moody’s Economy

  11. Industrial ProductionFebruary 2001 through May 2013 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

  12. Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2013Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  13. Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q1 2012 – Q1 2013 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  14. Red Card/Pink Slip

  15. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSJanuary 2002 through May 2013 May 2013: +175K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  16. National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorMay 2012 v. May 2013 All told 2,115K Jobs gained Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  17. National Construction Employment Monthly Net ChangeFebruary 2000 through May 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  18. State-by-state Growth in Construction JobsApril 2012 v. April 2013 *Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics The occupations in South Carolina with the largest decline since 2002 were management (31.9 percent) and construction and extraction (30.0 percent) NC = 22.5%).

  19. Construction Employment, SAJanuary 2006 through April 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  20. North Carolina Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)April 2013 v. April 2012Absolute Change NC Total: +34.6K; +1.8% US Total (SA): +2,065K; +1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics “Recent reports on North Carolina’s economy were upbeat with positive signs in labor and housing markets and strengthening conditions for state households.” June Report, Richmond Fed

  21. South Carolina Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)April 2013 v. April 2012Absolute Change SC Total: +23.8K; +1.3% US Total (SA): +2,065K; +1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics “Economic activity in South Carolina generally picked up in recent months with expansion in the labor market, increased home values, and improvement in household conditions.” June, Richmond Fed

  22. Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) April 2012 v. April 2013 Percent Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.5%

  23. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) April 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics April U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.5%; May = 7.6%

  24. Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)April 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Greenville, 6.0%; Charleston, 6.0%; Columbia, 6.5%; Raleigh-Cary, 6.8%; Charlotte, 8.4%

  25. Pad Save

  26. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through May 2013 3.54% 2.72% Source: Freddie Mac

  27. U.S. New Home SalesJanuary 1999 through April 2013 Source: Census Bureau

  28. U.S. Housing StartsJanuary 1999 through April 2013 Source: Census Bureau

  29. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros March 2013, 12-Month Percentage Change Source: Standard & Poor’s

  30. Architecture Billings IndexDecember 2007 through April 2013 Source: The American Institute of Architects

  31. Nonresidential Construction Put-in-PlaceJuly 2006 through April 2013 Oct. 08: $719.0 billion Mar. 13: $552.5 billion -23.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  32. National Nonresidential Construction Spending by SubsectorApril 2012 v. April 2013 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  33. Inputs to Construction PPIJanuary 2001 – May 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  34. Key Commodity PricesJanuary 2001 - May 2013 Source: BLS: EIA

  35. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through April 2013 Source: Conference Board

  36. Fourth Quarter • January and February were better than expected . . . • . . . But expect another second quarter slowdown, but not necessarily anything severe; • Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe; • Many headwinds remain and the recovery could easily falter; • Concrete demand now on the rise – this is increasingly reflected in pricing dynamics; and • Companies seem perfectly content buying themselves.

  37. Thank You • You can always reach me at abasu@sagepolicy.com • If you are interested in up-to-date data, please visit our website at www.sagepolicy.com • Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE) • Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.

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