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Lu Yurong

Principles of Corporate Finance Sixth Edition Richard A. Brealey Stewart C. Myers. Chapter 11. Where Positive Net Present Values Come From. Lu Yurong. McGraw Hill/Irwin. Topics Covered. Look First To Market Values Forecasting Economic Rents Marvin Enterprises. Market Values.

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Lu Yurong

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  1. Principles of Corporate Finance Sixth Edition Richard A. Brealey Stewart C. Myers Chapter 11 Where Positive Net Present Values Come From Lu Yurong McGraw Hill/Irwin

  2. Topics Covered • Look First To Market Values • Forecasting Economic Rents • Marvin Enterprises

  3. Market Values • Smart investment decisions make MORE money than smart financing decisions

  4. Market Values • Smart investments are worth more than they cost: they have positive NPVs • Firms calculate project NPVs by discounting forecast cash flows, but . . .

  5. Market Values • Projects may appear to have positive NPVs because of forecasting errorse.g. some acquisitions result from errors in a DCF analysis

  6. Market Values • Positive NPVs stem from a comparative advantage • Strategic decision-making identifies this comparative advantage; it does not identify growth areas

  7. Market Values • Don’t make investment decisions on the basis of errors in your DCF analysis. • Start with the market price of the asset and ask whether it is worth more to you than to others.

  8. Market Values • Don’t assume that other firms will watch passively.Ask --How long a lead do I have over my rivals? What will happen to prices when that lead disappearsIn the meantime how will rivals react to my move? Will they cut prices or imitate my product?

  9. NPV = -100 + + . . . + = $ 1 million [assumes price of property appreciates by 3% a year] Rental yield = 10 - 3 = 7% NPV + + . . . + + = $1 million 8 8 + 134 1.10 1.1010 8 - 78 - 7.218 - 8.878 - 9.13 1.10 1.102 1.109 1.1010 Department Store Rents

  10. Using Market Values EXAMPLE: KING SOLOMON’S MINE Investment = $200 million Life = 10 years Production = .1 million oz. a year Production cost = $200 per oz. Current gold price = $400 per oz. Discount rate = 10%

  11. Using Market Values EXAMPLE: KING SOLOMON’S MINE - continued If the gold price is forecasted to rise by 5% p.a.: NPV = -200 + (.1(420 - 200))/1.10 + (.1(441 - 200))/1.102 +... = - $10 m. But if gold is fairly priced, you do not need to forecast future gold prices: NPV = -investment + PV revenues - PV costs = 200 + 400 - S ((.1 x 200)/1.10t) = $77 million

  12. Do Projects Have Positive NPVs? • Rents = profits that more than cover the cost of capital • NPV = PV (rents) • Rents come only when you have a better product, lower costs or some other competitive edge • Sooner or later competition is likely to eliminate rents

  13. Competitive Advantage Proposal to manufacture specialty chemicals • Raw materials were commodity chemicals imported from Europe • Finished product was exported to Europe • High early profits, but . . . • . . . what happens when competitors enter?

  14. Marvin Enterprises

  15. Marvin Enterprises

  16. Demand 800 400 320 240 5 6 7 10 Price Marvin Enterprises Demand for Garbage Blasters Demand = 80 (10 - Price) Price = 10 x quantity/80

  17. Marvin Enterprises Value of Garbage Blaster Investment NPV new plant = 100 x [-10 + S ((6 - 3)/1.2t ) + 10/1.25 = $299 million Change PV existing plant = 24 x S (1/1.2t ) = $72 million Net benefit = 299 - 72 = $227 million

  18. Marvin Enterprises • VALUE OF CURRENT BUSINESS:VALUE • At price of $7 PV = 24 x 3.5/.20 420 • WINDFALL LOSS: • Since price falls to $5 after 5 years, • Loss = - 24 x (2 / .20) x (1 / 1.20)5 - 96 • VALUE OF NEW INVESTMENT: • Rent gained on new investment = 100 x 1 for 5 years = 299 • Rent lost on old investment = - 24 x 1 for 5 years = - 72 • 227227 • TOTAL VALUE: 551 • CURRENT MARKET PRICE: 460

  19. Marvin Enterprises Alternative Expansion Plans NPV $m. 600 NPV new plant 400 200 Total NPV of investment Addition to capacity millions 100 200 280 -200 Change in PV existing plant

  20. Preparation for Next Class • Please read: • BM Chapter 12 , P315-341

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