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Task Force on Seasonal Adjustment of Quarterly National Accounts Second meeting Item 6 Chain-linking and seasonal adjustment: Overview of national practices Luis Biedma and Martin Eiglsperger Frankfurt, 23-24 April 2007. 2. Background.

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  1. Task Force on Seasonal Adjustment of Quarterly National AccountsSecond meetingItem 6 Chain-linking and seasonal adjustment:Overview of national practicesLuis Biedma and Martin EiglspergerFrankfurt, 23-24 April 2007

  2. 2 Background • Mandate: “Review … existing recommendations that may be affected by the introduction of chain-linked QNA volume measures …” • Questionnaire on chain-linking and seasonal adjustment practices (TF-SAQNA-14) • Replies received from BE, BG, CZ, DE, EE, ES, FR, IT, LT, HU, NL, AT, PT, SK and FI • Replies from SE and the UK pending

  3. 3 Chain-linking and benchmarking of raw QNA Annual overlap • BE, CZ, DE, ES, FR, IT, LT, HU, SK, FI→ raw QNA and ANA are consistent Quarterly overlap • AT, UK → consistency of raw QNA and ANA forced Over-the-year approach • BG (GDP only), NL and SE (will change to annual overlap in summer 2007) → only small discrepancies between raw QNA and ANA Chain-linking not yet implemented: • EE

  4. 4 Input for chain-linked QNA series If temporal disaggregation techniques are used, they are applied on • annual chain-linked series by most of the replying countries • series in average previous year’s prices by DE, SK Seasonal adjusted chain-linked QNA series are obtained via adjusting • chain-linked QNA series by most of the replying countries • indicator series (monthly or quarterly) by BE, ES, FR, IT and PT

  5. 5 Balancing / consistency Consistency of unadjusted and adjusted QNA (production, expenditure and income side) • EE, PT and SK allow for discrepancies for unadjusted data • Others compile residual series, in most cases changes in inventories and operating surplus • Balancing is mostly done for level data; FI has a special focus on growth rates, allowing for small discrepancies between output and expenditure data • Balancing is conducted after adjustment by ES, FR, IT and PT Balancing / consistency of adjusted QNA • Done by BE, DE, ES, IT and PT • Not done by BG, CZ, HU, LT, AT and FI

  6. 6 Direct and indirect adjustment Indirect adjustment of GDP • BE, ES, FR, IT, PT and the UK Direct adjustment of GDP • All other replying countries Adjustment of series in current prices, volume and deflator series • All countries adjust two series and derive the third one; PT: depending on the format of source data • DE and AT derive adjusted series in current prices, others derive deflators

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