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Nineteenth Annual Southwest Florida Residential Development Snapshot

Where have we been?Where are we now?Where are we going?MLS Home Sales Building Permit, Foreclosure, Population, Employment, and RSW Traffic ReportsShort Subjects and Representative DealsWhen Will This Be Over?The Way Out. RWM. Where Have We Been?. RWM. RWM. NAR Forecast Existing Home Sales 200712/11/2006 Forecast 6.40 million units

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Nineteenth Annual Southwest Florida Residential Development Snapshot

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    1. Nineteenth Annual Southwest Florida Residential Development Snapshot Presented By: Collier Building Industry Association Sales and Marketing Council

    2. Where have we been? Where are we now? Where are we going? MLS Home Sales Building Permit, Foreclosure, Population, Employment, and RSW Traffic Reports Short Subjects and Representative Deals When Will This Be Over? The Way Out RWM

    3. Where Have We Been? RWM

    4. RWM

    5. NAR Forecast Existing Home Sales 2007 12/11/2006 Forecast 6.40 million units “Most of the correction in home prices is behind us.” 2/7/2007 Forecast 6.44 million units 4/11/2007 Forecast 6.34 million units 6/6/2007 Forecast 6.18 million units 9/11/2007 Forecast 5.92 million units 11/13/2007 Forecast 5.5 million units “the extended real estate boom from 2001 to 2005 created unrealistic expectations….” Source: www.papereconomy.com RWM

    8. Building Permit Totals Collier County Lee County Cape Coral Estero Charlotte County RWM

    10. RWM

    11. RWM

    12. RWM

    13. RWM

    14. RWM

    17. RWM

    18. Lee County Foreclosure Actions RWM

    19. RWM

    20. RWM

    22. Where Are We Now? RWM

    23. “We have not seen a nationwide decline in housing like this since the Great Depression.” John Strumpf, CEO, Wells Fargo “(Fort Myers)” is by far the worst housing market that we’re in, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not the worst housing market in the country” J. Larry Sorsby, CFO, K. Hovnanian Companies RWM

    24. The Deteriorating Homebuilding Environment Excess supply Downward pricing pressure Disruption in the credit markets Paralyzed buyers Increased cancellations Source: Levitt & Sons Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing RWM

    25. Short Subjects and Representative Deals RWM

    27. The High End ‘07 Marco Island Record: $9,000,000 ‘07 Naples/Collier County Record: $40,000,000 ‘07 Captiva/Lee County Record: $13,500,000 ‘07 Sarasota County Record: $13,500,000 Sky Sotheby International Realty JV with Auctioneer (original List Price was $20,000,000) held in conjunction with upscale charity event (portion of proceeds to charity) RWM

    28. The High End (cont’d) $5,853,000 Miromar Lakes LLC to McGarvey Custom Homes, LLC: 7 sf lots, Miromar Lakes $5,006,000 Miromar Lakes to Gulfshore Murano Partners LLC: 6 sf lots, Miromar Lakes RWM

    29. RWM

    30. Affordable Housing $12,841,600 Lee County Housing Development Corporation from US Home Corporation, 60 condominium units at Osprey Cove for Homes for Teachers program (David Lucas, Bonita Bay Group, Chico’s Charities, Oswald Trippe and Company) RWM

    31. Affordable Housing (Cont’d) Trafford Isle (Lennar) 190 townhouses, Arrowhead Reserve at Lake Trafford, Immokalee: “$138,990 to $153,990” The Vistas (Lennar) 190 townhouses, Heritage Bay, Immokalee Road: $171,990 to $185,990 RWM

    32. Affordable Housing (Cont’d) Levitt Homes San Simeon Auction, June 2007 2br/2ba 1395 sf ave $144,571/$103.64 psf (low $137,500) 3br/2.5ba 1614 sf avg $152,900/$94.73 psf (low $145,750) 3br/2.5ba 1779 sf avg $186,607/$104.89 psf (low $154,000) Michael Reitman Executive Director, Lee BIA: “There are 2400 homes under $150,000 on MLS in Lee County “November 25, 2007 RWM

    33. RWM “Golden Triangle” or Bermuda Triangle? “Pending” $114,000,000 (est) OJ Buigas to Greg Eagle: 5200 Acres Bermont Road SR/31 Nix FGCU Charlotte Campus (now at Murdock Village) “Pending” Greg Eagle to The Grove Tactical Training and Homeland Security Center “the no man’s land of eastern Charlotte County”, Steven J. Alexander, Director

    34. Kings Highway Centex Homes 3F Ranch 680 acres (pd. $43,110,400 Mar/2006) forfeited to C-Hack LLC Elias Brothers DeSoto Plantation 228 acres (pd. $10,250,000 May ‘06) For Sale Land Solutions DeSoto 300 330 acres For Sale Lennar Homes Stoneybrook Oaks 642 acres For Sale Lennar Homes The Preserve at Heritage Lakes 110 acres For Sale (pd $17,500,000 Dec ‘05) Lennar Homes Peace River Townhomes 34.7 acres For Sale RWM

    35. Burnt Store Road Lennar Homes Tern Bay Golf and Country Club “Mothballed”? $17,250,000 Centerline Homes 300 acres “Sold back” to Bonita Bay Group (paid $23,000,000 Dec ‘05) Bonita Bay Group 940 acres “Mothballed”? Saundry & Associates 265 acres For Sale RWM

    36. La Belle Bonita Bay Group Murphy’s Landing 187 acres, 400 units, SR 80 “Mothballed”? Bonita Bay Group South La Belle Community 4700 acres 9000 units Groundbreaking 2010? Saundry & Associates Brandywyne 267 acres Fort Denaud Road For Sale (pd. > $3,000,000 2004) D’Alessandro & Woodyard 293 acres Fort Denaud Road For Sale (pd. $12,013,000 Feb ‘06) Pat Logue The Old Groves 330 acres Cowboy Way For Sale (pd. $20,000,000 Aug ‘05) RWM

    37. Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres K Hovnanian Companies(First Home Builders): $480,000,000 backlog/1700 Homes Norlarco Credit Union, Huron River Credit Union, New Horizon Credit Union plus 16 participating Credit Unions and 2 Banks: as much as $440,000,000 Huron River: $230,000,000 National Credit Union Association (NCUA) National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund RWM

    38. Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres (con’t) November 19, 2007: 1st $26,000,000 NCUA Debt went on sale through Debtx.com Debtx: “we have not run into a liquidity problem, but pricing is going to be an issue” $16,240,000 K. Hovnanian First Homes LLC to Deltona Corp. 812 Cape Coral lots RWM

    39. Downtown Naples Intermezzo “Mothballed” Renaissance Village “Mothballed” Trails End Motel – Cancelled Naples Bay Resort? Strada @ Mercato? RWM

    40. SIDE EFFECTS LOT INVENTORY/INFRATRUCTURE N.E. Cape Coral Entrada, Magnolia Landing SR 80 Verandah, River Hall, Portico Tree Line Boulevard Plantation Immokalee Road The Quarry, Twin Eagles CR 951 Fiddlers Creek Ave Maria RWM

    41. Side Effects (cont’d) Abandoned, Failed or Mothballed Projects Toll Brothers Colonial Lakes Toll Brothers Palazzo Village WCI Communities Manchester Square Meritage Homes Moody River Estates North & South Meritage Homes Silverstone Meritage Homes Copper Cove EH Builders Copperstone Paradise Preserve Taylor Morrison Portico RWM

    42. Side Effects (cont’d) Abandoned, Failed or Mothballed Projects GL Homes Buckingham Road Levitt Homes Cascades at Riverhall Ryland Homes Remington Engle Homes Waterford Estates Engle Homes Marbella Lakes Lennar at Entrada Beazer Homes at Entrada Lennar/Beazer Palermo Etcetera, Etcetera, Etcetera RWM

    43. Side Effects (cont’d) Really Bad Customer Relations 125 unfinished, abandoned houses identified in Lehigh Acres, per City “maybe 1000” in Cape Coral HOA Payment “Slippage” Special Assessments CDD Payment “Slippage” FP&L Payment “Slippage” Mold RWM

    44. False Starts Engle Homes “The End is Near” Lennar “We’ll Buy Your Home” Centex Homes “Price Guard” Low Price Guarantee RWM

    45. Mortgage, Tax and Insurance Reform Mortgage Reform Don’t expect a bail out Best we can hope for: Never again Homestead Exemptions “Tyranny of the Majority” Homeowners Insurance Actuarial Rate / Coverage Balance RWM

    46. Surge of $CDN & Euro Two Things For Them to Worry About Further Housing Price Weakening Further Dollar Weakening Something For Us To Worry About Ontario Manufacturing/Exports Major SWFL “Feeder” RWM

    47. “Busted Condos” (FKA “Conversion Reversion”) South Bay Plantation, Manatee Road, Collier County Briar Landing, off Davis Boulevard, Collier County Granada Lakes Village, Radio Road/Santa Barbara Boulevard, Collier County Bermuda Island Vanderbilt Beach Road, Collier County Monterra, Bonita Beach Road, Lee County (Tarragon Corp. pd. $54,300,000 ‘05; prior ‘05 sale $22,792,000) RWM

    48. New Towns and Grand Ambitions 5700 acres/proposed 10,000 units – Camaretta Properties/The Carlyle Group, SR 31 DeSoto County Stolle/Crump 3425 acres / proposed 20,000 units – Land Solutions paid $58,000,000/2006; deed in lieu $46,000,000/2007, Charlotte County/Lee County Babcock Ranch 13,500 acres proposed 20,000 units – Kitson Partners / Morgan Stanley Labelle South Community 4700 acres/proposed 9000 units–Bonita Bay Properties / Bryan Paul, SR 80 Hendry County The Fountains 2600 acres/proposed 4215 units, 900,000 sf commercial. Daniels Road, Lee County RWM

    49. New Towns (cont’d) Ave Maria 5400 acres for 8000 units – Barron Collier Cos / Thomas Monaghan, Oil Well Road, Collier County $40,220,623 Stuart T. Meacham, Tr and Premier Partners III LP to ECJT East Corp (Barron Collier) 4400 acres for Serona, Immokalee Road, Collier County Big Cypress 8200 acres/proposed 9000 units (plus 10,000 acres in preservation) acres – Collier Enterprises, Oil Well Road, Collier County RWM

    50. Fund Guys or Fungi? $6,687, 529 Lennar Homes LLC to CCM Porto Vista, Entrada Del Prado Boulevard (Contrarian Capital Partners) Starwood ($3 Billion RE Investment Fund) TRAC, LLC Asent 07 Florida Property Fund Joseph Long Arcadia Apollo Real Estate Advisors Carlyle Group MSD Capital Cypress Creek Florida Land Investors (“$200 - $400 Million) Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera RWM

    51. New Players Are Kicking The Tires Vision Homes of SWFL Starwood Land Ventures Shea Homes Suncal Deltona RWM

    52. Seniors Housing $10,000,000 (est) Centrum Estero LLP to GATES 14.54 acres (including 4 acres lake) for 200 “Age Restricted” units Coconut Point Pending $45,000,000 (est) Senior Care Development from Caribbean Ventures 22 acres Golden Gate Parkway Discovery Communities 123 independent living units condo from $750,000 Marco Island Classic Residence by Hyatt rehab of Bentley Village Moorings Park “Satellite Facility” LCS, LLC Miscellaneous Niche players RWM

    53. Mining Deals $22,000,000 William T. Higgs to PDJW II LLC (Bill McDaniel), 550 acres SR82, Lee County Pending $60,000,000 (est) Corkscrew Mining Ventures to Preferred Unlimited, Inc. (est) 640 acres Corkscrew Road, Lee County Pending ($500,000,000?) Harvey Youngquist to ? Alico Road, Lee County Pending / Nix / Pending CR 845 Land Trust to ??? 2560 acres Immokalee Road, Collier County RWM

    54. Some Fundamentals Infrastructure $500,000,000 I-75 widening Three Oaks Completion RSW Finance Interest Rates Low Foreign Currencies strong Buyers Tourism Strong Population Growth Continues Job Formation Continues Demand “Penting Up” RWM

    55. More Fundamentals Product Prices are Low(ering) Buyer Attitudes Changing Brain Power Deep Available Talent Pool Timing This is the First Day of the Rest of Your Life RWM

    56. Where Are We Going? RWM

    57. “The markets are becoming aware that the decline in U.S. housing prices is not stopping. It is at an unprecedented pace compared to the last 50 years.” - Alan Greenspan, November 22, 2007 RWM

    58. Hanley Wood Big Builder Online: “one in three (Big Builders) will be part of homebuilding history” Levitt & Sons Chapter 11-November 12, 2007 Tousa Inc. (Engle Homes, builder FKA Transeastern Homes) “considering” prepackaged bankruptcy-November 15, Delisted NYSE November 26, 2007 WCI?-2013 bonds now trading @ > 60? on the $ (20% + yield) (Icahn Capital Management $51,500,000 3rd Qtr loss due to WCI holdings) Beazer ? Lennar / US Home? RWM

    59. Up From The Ashes Worthington Communities formed 1988 (Jeff Darragh, John Gnagy) April 1991 (last “correction”) US Home Corporation files for protection from creditors under Chapter 11 Local acquisitions terminated include future Vanderbilt Beach Road Village Walk site and Stoneybrook (Healthpark) Worthington Country Club led the recovery Ross W. McIntosh 1994 Collier County Development Market Snapshot “Representative Turnkey Homebuilder” by units closed April ‘93 through March ’94: 234 76 Coach Homes, 112 Condos, 46 Villas/SF RWM

    60. Up From The Ashes (cont’d) Sold Out Lexington Country Club (FKA Stonybrook) Sold Out Vanderbilt Country Club Selling Renaissance Country Club Sold Colonial Country Club to Pulte Homes for $30,000,000 Sold Arborwood to Centex Homes and GL Homes for $100,000,000+ RWM

    61. Up From The Ashes (cont’d) O.J. Buigas/Mastercraft Homes The “skinny” deal Joe Mason/SW Quality Homes The “Bermudas” Bill Kraut, and Paul Alford/Carl Fernstrom Boca Palms and Plantation $99,900 Jim Wallace/Wallace Homes “when buyers are staying home to watch the war on Television advertise on CNN” RWM

    62. When Will This Be Over? November 16, 2007 Bank of America Securities LLC: 2012 Anticipate Further Home Price Declines through 2011 RWM

    64. When will this be over? (cont’d) “We all fell into this hole at the same time (4qtr ‘05), but we’re not all getting out at the same time. Find a ladder and start climbing….” Ross W. McIntosh, November 22, 2007 RWM

    65. The Way Out Cash Management Back to the Basics: market research, targeted marketing, merchandising, product, and lifestyle amenities within the competitive matrix Back to the Basics: Learn (relearn) and practice the critical path to sales, then learn and practice more RWM

    66. The Way Out (cont’d) Location, Location, Location Price/Value New….Improved: say “Green” Group Hugs (teambuilding/teamwork): this is hard, discouraging work RWM

    67. The Way Out ?INFORMATION ? INSPIRATION ? INNOVATION ?INITIATIVE RWM

    69. ROSS W. McINTOSH Licensed Real Estate Broker INFORMATION ?INSPIRATION ?INNOVATION ?INITIATIVES 720 Goodlette Road North? Suite 303 ? Naples FL 34102-5656 (239) 213-1425 ? FAX (239)213-1426 Email: ross@rosswmcintosh.com Ross W. McIntosh Katharine L. Martel Michael S. McLeod Principal Licensed Executive Assistant Sales Associate RWM

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