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Earth at Night from Shuttle

Earth at Night from Shuttle. 1200—400 million people 1300—400 million people 1400—350 million people 1500—450 million people 1600—550 million people 1700—600 million people 1800—900 million people 1900—1.5 billion people 2000—6.0 billion people 2010—7+ billion people. Exponential

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Earth at Night from Shuttle

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  1. Earth at Night from Shuttle

  2. 1200—400 million people • 1300—400 million people • 1400—350 million people • 1500—450 million people • 1600—550 million people • 1700—600 million people • 1800—900 million people • 1900—1.5 billion people • 2000—6.0 billion people • 2010—7+ billion people

  3. Exponential growth Lag phase

  4. Exponential growth J-Curve

  5. Linear Growth 2 4 6 8 10 etc. 2 etc. 2 2 2

  6. #’s Time

  7. Exponential Growth 2 4 8 16 32 etc. 16 etc. 8 4 2

  8. #’s Time

  9. Biotic Potential

  10. Logistic Growth/ S-Curve

  11. Carrying Capacity • “Niche spaces” • Limiting Factors

  12. Limiting factors • Density dependent • Density independent

  13. Density dependent factors • Habitat • Food • Water • Shelter • Etc • Disease • Behavior

  14. Density independent factors • Climate (?) • Geology • Geography • Etc

  15. # live births BR = x 1000 Mid-year population

  16. # Deaths DR = x 1000 myp

  17. BR - DR APGR = 10

  18. 20 - 8 APGR = = 1.2 % 10

  19. 100 10 110 11 121 12 133 Etc

  20. #’s Time

  21. 70 DT = APGR

  22. 70 DT = = 58.33 years 1.2 % 1954 = 2.7 billion; Current = <7 billion

  23. Net Migration = # Immigrants - # Emigrants x 1000 myp

  24. Adjusted Growth Rate = Net migration + APGR 10

  25. 70 Adjusted DT = Adjusted GR

  26. #Births = 40,000 #Deaths = 20,000 Mid-year population = 2,000,000 Immigrants = 12,000 Emigrants = 2,000

  27. 40,000 BR = x 1000 2,000,000

  28. 40,000,000 BR = = 20 2,000,000

  29. 20,000 DR = x 1000 2,000,000

  30. 20,000,000 DR = = 10 2,000,000

  31. 20 - 10 APGR = = 1% 10

  32. 70 DT = = 70 years 1.0 %

  33. Net Migration = 12,000 - 2,000 x 1000 2,000,000

  34. Net Migration = 10,000,000 = 5 2,000,000

  35. Adjusted Growth Rate = 5 + 1.0 10

  36. Adjusted Growth Rate = + 1.0 = 1.5% 0.5

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