Climate resilience & a Green Economy

1. Climate resilience & a Green Economy Errol DouwesManager: Restoration Ecology Branch Environmental Planning and Climate Protection DepartmentDurban (EThekwini Municipality), South Africa

2. Understanding risk • Global drivers of change • Climate change • Biodiversity loss • Habitat fragmentation • Nitrogen deposition • Acknowledging complexities

3. Increased flood risk

4. Fire associated risks: Too much or too little. Invasive Alien Plants • Tool to evaluate long-term city plans and policies against the impacts of climate change. • Represents climate change impacts spatially. • Considers: temperature, rainfall, food security, health impacts, biodiversity, GHG emissions and sea-level rise. • Provides access to resources – catalogue for climate protection documents.

5. A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461:472-475 Nine planetary boundaries

6. Predicting Durban’s Climatic Future: • GCM models: downscaling increases uncertainty for local predictions • e.g. total water supply could increase or decrease, but high probability of flooding and evaporation rate increase • Flexible planning using “no regret” options • e.g. Ecosystem restoration ensures buffer protection and continued supplies of services like flood attenuation

7. Climate related events - are we missing anything? vs • Extreme storms • Severe floods • Temperature extremes • Drought • Rapid infrastructuredamage • Health issues • Ocean acidification • Rising sea levels • Desertification • Agricultural potential • Forest degradation • Soil erosion • Migrations • Water availability

8. Ten Principles of the Durban Adaptation Charter Mainstream adaptation as a key informant of all local government development planning. Understand climate risksthough conducting impact and vulnerability assessments. Prepare and implement integrated, inclusive, and long-term local adaptation strategiesdesigned to reduce vulnerability. Ensure that adaptation strategies are aligned with mitigationstrategies. Promote the use of adaptation that recognises the needs of vulnerable communitiesand ensures sustainable local economic development. Prioritise the role of functioning ecosystemsas core municipal green infrastructure. Seek the creation of direct access to fundingopportunities. Develop an acceptable, robust, transparent, measurable, reportable, and verifiable register. Promote multi-level and integrated governance and advocate for partnerships with sub-national and national governments on local climate action. Promote partnerships at all levels and city-to-city cooperation and knowledge exchange.

9. Durban’s leadership in the climate change adaptation Leverage in other related sectors: • 2013: Durban is invited to become one of the seven cities internationally testing the indicator set for the proposed urban Sustainable Development Goal. In 2015 the MDGs will be replaced by a set of SDGs. Council formerly endorses Durban’s support for an urban SDG. • 2014: Mayor Nxumalo is invited to high level gathering of Mayors (New York, Paris, Melbourne, Buenos Aires, Shenzhen, Bogota, Johannesburg)and Ambassadors in New York on the urban SDG.

10. Partnerships: why are they so critical? • Perhaps not surprising but often overlooked: • partnerships enable knowledge sharing and bring disparate disciplines and partners together • A systemic approach sounds good on paper, but how can we know we’re really making progress? • Research • Pilot programmes • Long term monitoring, verification, and comparative studies • Relevant partnerships improve learning and knowledge exchange, funding etc.

11. Ask how much? • What does a green economy cost? • Is it cost effective? • How does it shape up, in comparison with current economic models? • The risks of current economic forecasting • Long term cost-benefit analyses: Economists and politicians need convincing • They need to show support for the green economy • Is GDP the only feasible measure? • Thinking outside the box: • Yes, Gross National Happiness must be considered

12. Thank you