Island County 2016 Periodic Comprehensive Plan Update

1. Island County 2016 Periodic Comprehensive Plan Update Population Projections and Trends Presented by: Island County Planning & Community Development June 25th, 2013

2. Island County Methodology • Tasked with selecting a population for Island County in 2036 • Used the Office of Financial Management’s (OMF) medium projection as a starting point • OFMs medium series is considered the most likely projection by State demographers • Assessed the inputs of OFMs Model • Total Fertility Rates • Mortality • Migration • Made adjustments to OFMs medium projection based on local demographic trends and research

3. 2012 OFM Projection Range Source: WA State OFM

4. Total Fertility Rates • Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The measure of the total number of children born per woman in her lifetime in a given population • Variation of TFRs at the County level • Counties with a larger immigrant population tend to have higher TFRs • TFRs tend to be low in counties with a high proportion of females in their pre-retirement years • The diverse characteristics of Island County make TFR generalizations difficult for OFM • OFM projected the 2010 TFR for Island County of 2.1 out to 2040 Source: WA State OFM – Correspondence with Chief Demographer: Yi Zhao

5. Median Age: Total Population1980-2010 Source: WA State OFM – based on 2010 US Census

6. Median Age: Female Population1980-2010 Source: WA State OFM – based on 2010 US Census

7. Historical Population Counts Source: WA State OFM – based on decennial Census counts (rate of change calculated independently)

8. Annual Growth Rate: 1970 - 2010 Source: Analysis based on decennial Census counts

9. Tracking County and OFM Projections with Census Data Source: WA State OFM, 2005 Island County Comprehensive Plan, Memo from Jeff Tate dated January 11, 2002

10. Tracking County and OFM Projections with Census Data Source: WA State OFM, 2005 Island County Comprehensive Plan, Memo from Jeff Tate dated 1/11/2002

11. Migration

12. Commute Times Avg. Commute Times: US = 20 minutes WA = 26 minutes Ferry connection has finite vehicle capacity Transportation costs are increasing Trends suggest people are driving less and are not willing to endure extreme commutes Whidbey planning areas are isolated from regional job centers Only Camano Island is within standard commuting distance of major job centers *Snohomish & King County employment centers represent PSRC designated regional growth centers – Skagit County employment centers are the closest Skagit County UGAs to Island County Source: US Census – American Community Survey, Urban Geography: Pacione

13. 2036 Projection*This projection was adjusted based on information received from Whidbey NAS on June 18, 2013. • Island County Planning initially recommended a population selection of 85,387 people for 2036 • This is one quartile below OFM’s medium series for 2036 (OFM’s medium series = 90,848) • Based on information provided by Whidbey NAS we added 2,530 people to our initial projection • This represents a projected population of 87,917 in 2036 and an annual average growth rate of approximately 0.45% • Island County Planning intends to amend the County Wide Planning Policies to allow for UGA modification in the event of unanticipated growth

14. Annual Growth Rate Based on Island County 2036 Population Projection Source: Analysis based on decennial Census counts and the assumption of a 2036 Population of 87,917 people

15. Island County Population Projection:2036 *This image is intended to provide a rough approximation of the population trend predicted by Island County Planning & Community Development. Actual population may not follow this trend line.

16. Questions or Comments?