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RT5: Evaluation

RT5: Evaluation. Objective : comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses. Evaluation approaches. improved observational datasets for Europe. global scale key processes / phenomena and

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RT5: Evaluation

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  1. RT5: Evaluation Objective: comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  2. Evaluation approaches improved observational datasets for Europe global scale key processes / phenomena and s2d forecast skill regional scale statistics of extremes impacts ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  3. Evaluation approaches improved observational datasets for Europe (my expertise) global scale key processes / phenomena and s2d forecast skill (links to RT4, RT1 and RT2A) regional scale statistics of extremes (links to RT4, RT3 and RT2B) impacts (links to RT6; refer to Andy Morse) ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  4. Evaluation approaches improved observational datasets for Europe ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  5. ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) based on ECA&D daily historical station series eca.knmi.nl ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  6. ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) based on ECA&D daily historical station series eca.knmi.nl/ensembles ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  7. ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observationaldatasets (25 and 50 km) Haylock et al., accepted by JGRscaling issues: interpolation reduces extremes ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  8. ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) http://eca.knmi.nl/ensembles (or from RT5 website) 400 registered users,3000 unique website visitors every month ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  9. ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) http://eca.knmi.nl/ensembles (or from RT5 website) 400 registered users,3000 unique website visitors every month ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  10. Remaining • Need a unique name for the gridded dataset • Guidance on the use of uncertainty information(standard error fields are provided, but not used!) • Updates (2007, new version with improved station density, Lambert RCM grid flavour) • Datasets for other variables (slp, snow cover, radiation/sunshine) ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  11. Evaluation approaches global scale key processes / phenomena and s2d forecast skill (links to RT4, RT1 and RT2A) ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  12. GCM metrics (Prince Xavier, IPSL) ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  13. GCM metricsvertical circulation regimes in tropical eastern Pacific -> double ITCZ syndrome (Bellucci et al., INGV) ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  14. S2D forecast skill (Antje Weisheimer, ECMWF) (Andreas Weigel, MeteoSwiss) ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  15. Remaining • Integration of evaluation results from RT5, feedback to GCM modelers (Stream 2 idea) • RT5 contribution to combined weighting GCM/RCM ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  16. Evaluation approaches regional scale statistics of extremes (links to RT4, RT3 and RT2B) ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  17. Representation of extremes in RCMs using indices Kostopoulouet al. (NOA) ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  18. Representation of trends in extremes using indices Lister et al. (UEA) ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  19. Remaining • RT5 contribution to RCM weighting metrics • Treatment of extremes in ENSEMBLES across different variables, time scales and spatial scales (next extremes workshop, Riederalp, January 09) • Impacts perspective on extremes ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  20. Impacts perspective Key question in adaptation strategies (design criteria): “How to assess probabilities of extremes in a non-stationary climate?” (May 08 - RT5 workshop in De Bilt organized together with WMO/CLIVAR-ETCCDI) ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

  21. Applying the non-stationary extreme-value model to precipitation in the Rhine basin (Martin Hanel, KNMI) ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

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