AQAST Tiger team Activity

1. AQAST Tiger team Activity Improved Lateral Boundary Conditions for NCEP Operational NAM-CMAQ AQ forecasts AQAST participants: R. Bradley Pierce Daniel Jacob (with Lin Zhang) Arlene Fiore (with MeiyunLin) Pius Lee Additional participants: Todd Schaack– SSEC/UW-Madison Allen Lenzen – SSEC/UW-Madison Craig S. Long – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC Chris Barnet – NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Problem to be solved: National Air Quality Forecast Guidance Capability (NAQFC) NAM-CMAQ Air Quality forecasts are currently constrained with static lateral boundary conditions (LBC). Using climatological 3-dimensional (3D) tropospheric P-L distributions to predict background ozone concentrations within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) provides a cost effective means of improving background ozone predictions within NAM-CMAQ. NASA Air Quality Applied Science Team Meeting Madison, WI June 13-15, 2012

2. NOAA/NESDIS Ozone Assimilation Development Currently developing capabilities to assimilate GOES Sounder TCO retrievals into the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ; http://www.cmaq-model.org/) model using the NCEP Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis scheme under NOAA Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) funding AQAST Tiger Team proposal extends this work to include improved estimates of tropospheric ozone production/loss processes to support development of EUMETSAT METOP Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and NASA NPP Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) ozone retreival assimilation within the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS)

3. Focus on July 2011 (DISCOVER-AQ) time period for improved tropospheric ozone P-L testing due to availability of NMMB-CMAQ with capability for “tightly coupled” 56-level CMAQ formulation to better resolve the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere ozone gradients • Conduct GDAS/GFS cycling experiments with GEOS-CHEM monthly mean POX, LOX during July 2011 to assess impact on GFS meteorological forecast skill (Jacob, Pierce) • Positive or neutral impact needed for NCEP approval to move forward with development • Conduct “tightly coupled” NAM-CMAQ GOES TCO assimilation experiments with updated GFS lateral boundary conditions (Pierce, Lee) • Generate full year (or multi year) AM3 POX, LOX climatologieswith and without biomass burning emissions for use in GDAS/GFS (Fiore)

4. 56 level NAM-CMAQ vs DISCOVER-AQ ozonesondes Significant low bias above 300mb. Significant underestimate in variance above 700mb DISCOVER-AQ ozonesonde data provided by Anne Thompson PSU

5. 56 level NAM-CMAQ +GFS LBC+ GFS UTLS + GOES TCO vs DISCOVER-AQ ozonesondes GFS LBC+GFS UT/LS GFS Ozone CMAQ Ozone Improved representation of variance above 700mb Still relatively large low biases in mid troposphere and high biases in UTLS DISCOVER-AQ ozonesonde data provided by Anne Thompson PSU

6. RAQMS MLS+OMI vs DISCOVER-AQ ozonesondes (used to validate GDAS 3D O3 PL) Biases generally less then 20% UT/LS variance captured in RAQMS analysis Representation of global tropospheric O3 PL coupled with assimilation of NASA MLS and OMI ozone measurements results in good agreement with DISCOVER-AQ ozone sondes DISCOVER-AQ ozonesonde data provided by Anne Thompson PSU

7. Tiger Team Progress: • Operational NCEP GDAS (T574L64, 27 KM) analysis system has been ported to new NESDIS/STAR S4 super computer at UW-Madison SSEC and July 2011 GDAS control experiments have been completed (cycling 6hr analysis with 5-day forecasts) • Lin Zhang (Harvard) provided GEOS-Chem model output for July 2011 and Meiyun Lin (Princeton) provided annual AM3 model output for 2010 • 3hr averaged 3D ozone production rate and loss frequency, surface deposition • 3hr 3D cloud fraction, optical depths, temperature • 3D merged GFS (stratosphere) + GEOS-CHEM (troposphere) ozone PL developed for use in GFS and source code adapted for inclusion of 3D O3 P-L. • Short term (10-day) GDAS cycling experiments conducted with 3D diurnally averaged merged GFS/GEOS-CHEM O3 PL (3D diurnally varying O3 PL experiments currently underway)

8. Default GFS July O3 PL

9. July 2011 3D merged GFS + GEOS-CHEM O3 PL

10. Surface O3 (GFS Control)

11. Surface O3 (GFS + GEOS-CHEM Merged O3 PL)

12. Surface O3 (RAQMS MLS+OMI Analysis)

13. 850mb O3 (GFS Control)

14. 850mb O3 (GFS + GEOS-CHEM Merged O3 PL)

15. 850mb O3 (RAQMS MLS+OMI Analysis)

16. 500mb O3 (GFS Control)

17. 500mb O3 (GFS + GEOS-CHEM Merged O3 PL)

18. 500mb O3 (RAQMS MLS+OMI Analysis)

19. Stratosphere UTLS Troposphere

20. Stratosphere UTLS Troposphere

21. Stratosphere UTLS Troposphere

22. The implementation of 3D tropospheric O3 PL within GFS supports a newly funded FY12 Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) NOAA internal Science and Development Implementation (JSDI) proposal entitled "Assimilation of IASI ozone retrievals and radiances within GDAS“. However, the original objective of supporting the National Air Quality Forecast Guidance Capability (NAQFC) is currently uncertain due to proposed FY13 NOAA budget cuts which would eliminate NAQFC. We intend to redirect our effort to support improving LBC for regional AQ prediction under the NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) climate and air quality research program.