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NBA: Bayesian Skill Ranking

NBA: Bayesian Skill Ranking. Leland Chen, Joseph Huang, Ryan Thompson. Proposed Network. Gaussian. Logistic. Case Study: One Game. Offensive/Defensive Skills. Offensive Skills: Higher the better Defensive Skills: Lower the better. 1 complete game; 183 total possessions .

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NBA: Bayesian Skill Ranking

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  1. NBA: Bayesian Skill Ranking Leland Chen, Joseph Huang, Ryan Thompson

  2. Proposed Network

  3. Gaussian Logistic

  4. Case Study: One Game Offensive/Defensive Skills Offensive Skills: Higher the better Defensive Skills: Lower the better 1 complete game; 183 total possessions • Traditional Box Score CLE @ DET, March 07, 2007. 101-97 OT.

  5. Southwest Division 2008-2009 Offensive Skills: Higher the better Defensive Skills: Lower the better 2pt Off./Def. Players (600+ possessions) 35 games; 3152 1st half possessions*

  6. Case Study: Dallas Mavericks Offensive/Defensive Skills Offensive Skills: Higher the better Defensive Skills: Lower the better 35 games; 3152 1st half possessions*

  7. Rank players by individual contribution that traditional box scores cannot convey • Generative model can predict the performance of lineups that have never faced each other • Built multinomial multi-player models of multidimensional skills on top of basic paired-comparison models. Future Work Conclusion • Smoothing/Bayesian Prior • Coach Skill • Even More Data

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