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A Big Step or a Small Leap? The Panama Canal Expansion and Global Supply Chains

A Big Step or a Small Leap? The Panama Canal Expansion and Global Supply Chains. Jean-Paul Rodrigue Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA. Ship Happens…. Factors Guiding our Steps. Global Trends: The Proverbial Elephant in the Living (Board) Room.

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A Big Step or a Small Leap? The Panama Canal Expansion and Global Supply Chains

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  1. A Big Step or a Small Leap?The Panama Canal Expansion and Global Supply Chains Jean-Paul Rodrigue Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA

  2. Ship Happens…

  3. Factors Guiding our Steps

  4. Global Trends: The Proverbial Elephant in the Living (Board) Room

  5. Multiplying Effects of Derived Demand on Container Transport Peaking? Container Throughput (520.4 Millions TEU) Exports in current USD ($15.2 Trillion) GDP in current USD ($63.4 Trillion) World Population (6.84 Billions)

  6. China: The Largest Bubble in History? Rebalancing in demand

  7. The Third Oil Shock Unfolding Rebalancing in input costs Second Oil Shock Third Oil Shock First Oil Shock

  8. Global Trade Stalling? (and diverging)

  9. The Usual Suspects Shifting to Lower Gears

  10. Latin American Traders Shifting to Higher Gear

  11. The Elephants…

  12. Ports and Maritime Shipping in a Paradigm

  13. An Expected Shift in Containerization Growth Factors

  14. World’s Major Container Ports, 2010 Geography of production and consumption Gateways and intermediary hubs dynamics

  15. Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different Dynamics Monthly Container Traffic (Jan 2005 =100)

  16. Ports and Maritime Shipping in the “Post-Bubble” Period: An Enduring Cognitive Dissonance? Maritime Shipping Shift in economic geography Financialisation (dumb money) Demand Supply Macroeconomic shifts Changes in shipping network configuration (gateways vs transshipment) Linear inference Port Operations Paradigm

  17. Supply Chain Differentiation: Selective Performance Preferences

  18. Reliability Remains Somewhat Elusive…

  19. Some Key Issues in Liner Shipping

  20. The Six Flags Index… Enjoy the ride New supply above demand growth

  21. The North American East and West Coasts Dominate… Millions

  22. … but Growth has Shifted to South America / The Caribbean Million TEUs

  23. Panama Canal Expansion: Triangles and Funnels

  24. Transshipment Volume and Incidence by Major Ports, 2007-09 Asia – Mediterranean Corridor Caribbean Transshipment Triangle Northern Range East Asia Cluster

  25. Transshipment in the Caribbean: From A Triangle to a Funnel 15.6% 16.4% 4.9% 63.1% Economies of scale involve less tolerance for deviation

  26. Components of the Logistics Performance Index, Selected Latin American Countries, 2010

  27. The Inland Logistics Funnel: The “Last Mile” in Freight Distribution Capacity Funnel Frequency Funnel Atomization Inland Terminal HINTERLAND FrequencyGap CapacityGap GATEWAY Massification FORELAND Economies of scale Main Shipping Lane INTERMEDIATE HUB

  28. Emerging Global Maritime Freight Transport System: Changes in Routing and Density? Macroeconomic Factors (Elephants) Competitive Factors (Paradigms) Operational Factors (Funnels)

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