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Potentials for Renewables in Europe

Potentials for Renewables in Europe. Wolfram Krewitt DLR Institute of Technical Thermodynamics Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment Stuttgart. eufores 7 th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 5-6, 2007. Solar resources in Europe.

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Potentials for Renewables in Europe

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  1. Potentials for Renewables in Europe Wolfram Krewitt DLR Institute of Technical Thermodynamics Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment Stuttgart eufores 7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 5-6, 2007

  2. Solar resources in Europe Global horizontal irradiation, 1. October 2005, 12:00-13:00 W/m²

  3. PV electricity generation potential 1. October 2005, 12:00-13:00 MWh/km² actual demand: 345 GWh potential generation: 164 GWh

  4. Renewable energy technical potentials in Europe 250 EJ/y 200 Geothermal heat Solar heating Biomass energy crops 150 Biomass residues Geothermal (el) Ocean (el) 100 Wind (el) Hydro (el) Solar PV (el) Solar CSP (el) 50 0 RES potentials gross primary energy consumption EU-25 in 2005 Source: Ecofys, DLR

  5. opportunities Renewable energy deployment potentials • target oriented RES expansion • 2°C target (climate protection) • security of supply • economic constraints • cost reduction of RES-technologies by running through the learning curve • increase in fossil fuel prices and CO2-costs • most RES-technologies gain competitiveness within the next 15 years • structural constraints • current supply structure, power plant stock turnover, building up of new industrial production capacity

  6. 6.000 Efficiency 5.000 Import RES Ocean Energy Solar Thermal 4.000 PV TWh/a Geothermal 3.000 Wind Hydro Biomass 2.000 CHP fossil Gas&oil 1.000 Coal Nuclear 0 2003 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 80% RES electricity RES deployment potentials in the electricity sector Energy [R]evolution Scenario , OECD Europe 6.000 Efficiency 5.000 Import RES Ocean Energy Solar Thermal 4.000 PV TWh/a Geothermal 3.000 Wind Hydro Biomass 2.000 CHP fossil Gas&oil 1.000 Coal Nuclear 0 2003

  7. PJ/a RES deployment potentials – primary energy Energy [R]evolution Scenario , OECD Europe 45% energy savings compared to ‘business-as-usual’ 50% renewables

  8. Costs of electricity supply 500 450 400 ‘wisdom of market’? 350 /a € 300 Billion 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2°C Scenario - efficiency measures 2°C Scenario - electricity generation Reference - electricity generation

  9. Costs of electricity supply 500 450 policy incentives & wisdom of market! 400 350 /a € 300 Billion 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2°C Scenario - efficiency measures 2°C Scenario - electricity generation Reference - electricity generation

  10. Renewable energy perspectives • renewable energy potentials in Europe significantly exceed the energy demand • rapid RES deployment ensures compliance with climate protection targets • renewable energies hedge against increasing energy prices • investment in renewable energy technologies offers options for industrial development and employment • societal and structural innovation is required to facilitate the transformation process • feed-in-tariffs proved to be the most successful support instrument

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