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Introduction to The N ational C enters for E nvironmental P rediction (NCEP)

Learn about NCEP's mission, vision, and various forecast models and services they provide. Discover how NCEP collaborates with partners and customers to deliver reliable and accurate environmental predictions.

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Introduction to The N ational C enters for E nvironmental P rediction (NCEP)

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  1. Introduction to The National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)

  2. NCEP Mission: To deliver science based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community To collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely and accurate analyses, guidance and forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of national economy Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

  3. Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Climate CFSv2 Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM4 3.5B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Global Forecast System Regional DA Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model NAM/CMAQ Very Short Range Ensemble Forecasts Time-Lagged RUC+NAM Rapid Update for Aviation NOAH Land Model

  4. The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services Observe To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…) - Process - Assimilate - Predict Products & Forecast Services Central Guidance Local Offices Respond & Feedback NCEP Distribute IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models

  5. The EMC Mission….. In response to operational requirements: • Develop and Enhancenumerical guidance • Improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model systems via: • Scientific upgrades • Optimization • Additional observations • Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations • Transform & integrate • Code • Algorithms • Techniques • Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation • Maintain operational model suite • The scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast modeling systems • Modify current operational system to adapt to ever-present external changes EMC location within the funnel

  6. NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Models Hurricane Models Days North American Forecast Hours Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation • GFDL • WRF Dispersion Models for DHS Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

  7. Implementations • Recent Implementations • GEFS (U.S. contribution to North American Ensemble Forecast system – NAEFS) – Q2FY10 • Global Forecast System (GFS)* -- Q4FY10 • NAEFS (addition of FNMOC) – Q2FY11 • Climate Forecast System Version 2.0 (CFSV2)- Q2FY11 • Upcoming implementations • HYCOM (global) – Q4FY11 • North American Mesoscale (NAM) model – Q3FY11 • ESMF based NEMS component • New GSI with minor update to • GFS – Q3FY11 • Hybrid (EnKF + 3DVar) *Dr. Joseph Sela’s last GFS implementation

  8. GFS Implementation • Implemented July 28, 2010 • Horizontal resolution increased from 35 km to 27 km (through 192 hours in support of the GFS MOS development) • Upgraded: radiation and cloud package, specification of gravity wave drag, boundary layer scheme, deep convection scheme • Higher resolution grid for hurricane relocation, snow analysis • New mass flux shallow convection scheme 24 hr rainfall ending 12Z, Sept 29, 2008 36-60 hr forecast

  9. Climate Forecast System (CFSV2) Implemented on March 30, 2011

  10. Include Impacts of Changing Climate InWeather and Seasonal Forecasts Investigation of ISI-Decadal linkages CFS capability to recreate decadal temperature trend

  11. NCEP’s Global and Regional Hurricane Numerical Guidance GFS T574/64L 3-D var Vortex relocation State of the science physics GFDL Movable nested Air-sea coupled Inner nest 9 km/42L Specialized vortex initialization, Upgraded with some GFS physics (2003, 2004) HWRF added in 2007 Based on NMM Dynamic Core Movable, two-way nested grid 9km inner; 27km outer; 42 vertical layers; 75 x 75° domain) Advanced physics (atmosphere/ocean fluxes; tested in GFDL - the "benchmark", NCEP GFS boundary layer and deep convection) Advanced vortex initialization that uses GSI 3D-var (an advancement over GFDL bogus) assimilation of Doppler radar data to run in development parallel Princeton Ocean Model (POM) (with loop current initialization - same as GFDL)

  12. Technical cooperation agreement between NOAA and MoES • Includes: • a) Activities that improve the understanding and representation of the climate • controls and rainfall for the South Asia region; • b) Studies that support data collection, data sharing, compilation and processing for societal benefit, including real-time data exchange for operational use; • c) Studies that support meteorological, hydrological, oceanographic, and climate research including monitoring and understanding of climate forcing and regional scales; • d) Activities that allow the collaborative and mutual exchange of scientific and technical talent for the enhancement of mutual project activities; • e) Activities for the conduct of appropriate meetings, workshops and conferences for mutual exchange of scientific and technical knowledge and ideas

  13. Forms of cooperation • a) Access by MoES institutions NCEP’s modeling and data assimilation systems for the purpose of collaborative modeling work to improve such systems for the mutual benefit of India and the United States • b) Establishment “Monsoon Desk” at NCEP to facilitate and advance CFS modeling work • c) Coordination amongst participating parties of the transition to India NCEP's modeling software and codes, including routine updates, for the GFS, CFS, the GSI atmospheric Data Assimilation Scheme, and the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System. • We are here, as part of this cooperation, to install unified GFS and CFS • Software and source codes on MoES computer systems

  14. NCEP Model Interactions with India MoES

  15. Model Training Desksupported through India MoES • Goal • Train MoES modelers on the CFS and GFS system being transferred to India • Support • Provided by MoES and NCEP (in kind) • Status • Kate Howard (EMC) has been designated Point of Contact • Curriculum being established • Funds provided by India just received • Next Step • Identify first students and establish time lines

  16. Hopefully, this partnership will result in Fuller understanding of the Indian monsoon onset, break and retreat phases and associated precipitation characteristics, Contribute to the MoES's "National Monsoon Mission;' to provide various Indian economic and agriculture sectors improved weather forecast guidance during the monsoon rainy season. Establishment of a "Monsoon Desk" at NOAA's NCEP/EMC which will serve as the modality to coordinate numerical model simulations and diagnostics between NCEP, IITM,IMD, and NCMRWF. NCEP and EMC expect this partnership to be mutually beneficial with the Indian expertise contributing to the improvements in tropical prediction skills of the NCEP global climate and weather prediction models.

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