The End of the Transition Paradigm

1. The End of the Transition Paradigm Thomas Carothers, 2002 Presented by: Salwa Tobbala April 19, 2010

2. 20th Century Third Wave of Democracy Southern Europe in the mid-1970s: fall of right-wing authoritarian regimes Latin America from the late 1970s -late 1980s: replacement of military dictatorships by elected civilian governments East and South Asia mid-1980s: decline of authoritarian rule in parts of Eastern Europe end of the 1980s: collapse of communist regimes Soviet Union 1991: breakup and establishment of 15 post-Soviet republics Sub-Saharan Africa first half of the 1990s: decline of one-party regimes in many parts of Some Middle Eastern countries 1990s: weak but recognizable liberalizing trend

3. 5 Core AssumptionsTransition Paradigm In Transition toward Democracy Democratization in Sequence: Opening – Breakthrough – Consolidation Importance of Elections No pre-conditions Democracy building and state-building

4. Gray Zone Dictatorship Liberal Democracy

5. How to move forward? Discard the transition paradigm’s five assumptions Social Economic Development beside democracy-building Country-specific patterns of political life:

6. Startswith a dream…. Fulfilled with persistence & hard work