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Challenges to the Third Wave and Transition Paradigm

Challenges to the Third Wave and Transition Paradigm. Reactions to Carothers in defense of the paradigm. Do we need a new paradigm? What would it be ?. Response in Defense of the Transition Paradigm. Defense of the Transition Paradigm ( Nodia ).

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Challenges to the Third Wave and Transition Paradigm

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  1. Challenges to the Third Wave and Transition Paradigm • Reactions to Carothers in defense of the paradigm. • Do we need a new paradigm? What would it be?

  2. Response in Defense of the Transition Paradigm

  3. Defense of the Transition Paradigm (Nodia) • If we should discard transition paradigm, then what proposed to replace it? • Countries that haven’t fully democratized should still be measured by how far they are along the path.

  4. Do we need a new paradigm? What would it be?

  5. Henry Hale’s “Regime Cycles” • Specific institutional features of regimes create particular patterns of elite interactions. • These elite interactions  regular and predictable cycles towards and away from democracy/ autocracy.

  6. Henry Hale’s “Regime Cycles”: Case of PatronalPresidentialism • Dominant in post-Soviet states. • Characteristics: • Directly elected president with strong formal powers. • Strong informal presidential power through patron-client relations. • Dynamics: • When president perceived as lame duck, elite contestation occurs. • At this stage masses can be active and influential in choosing successor. • Contestation may remain for period after successor chosen, but then elites fall in line again behind patron.

  7. Charles Tilly’s State-Society Contention • Necessary processes promoting democratization (absence  de-democratization) • Integration of formerly segregated trust networks into public politics. • Minimization of categorical inequalities among citizens, or at least separation of them from political opportunity. • Reduction of autonomous power centers (e.g. private armed groups, religious authorities, business cartels).

  8. Charles Tilly’s State-Society Contention • Dialectic between state ruling capacity and democratization processes. • When state capacity expands faster than democratization processes, regime passes through authoritarianism (Carothers’ “dominant –power regimes”); • When democratization outstrips state capacity, risky zone where state cannot satisfy popular demands (Carothers’ “feckless pluralist” regimes).

  9. Question: Do Hale or Tilly provide us with better ability to understand, explain, or predict movement towards or away from democracy? Or shall we prefer to keep the transition paradigm?

  10. Preview for Visiting Speaker Monday • Tim Klein, Producer/ Director of: • What are We Doing Here?: film critical of development/ relief aid to Africa. • Please think for discussion about: • What are similarities between development aid and democratization aid? • What are differences? Is democratic development aid more or less effective? • Please see the film! • 12:00 April 5, Liu Institute Multipurpose Room

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