Winter time T-PARC planning

1. Winter time T-PARC planning Yucheng Song IMSG at EMC/NCEP/NOAA Zoltan Toth EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/T-PARC_IPY.html Princeville, Kauai, Hawaii 4-6 December 2007

2. WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM • Dave Emmitt Simpson Weather Assoc. • Chris Doyle Meteorological Service of Canada • Alexander Kats Roshydromet, Russia • Gary Wick ESRL/NOAA, CO • Dehui Chen CMA • David Richardson ECMWF

3. WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM Yoshio Asuma Japan Craig BishopNRL Juan Caballero Mexico Edmund Chang Stony Brook University Chris Doyle Meteorological Service of Canada Brian Etherton University of North Carolina, Charlotte Jenni Evans The Pennsylvania State University Pierre Gauthier Canada Ron Gelaro NASA/GSFC Gregory J. Hakim University of Washington Steve Koch NOAA/ESRL Rolf Langland NRL Chungu Lu CIRES / NOAA Sharanya Majumdar University of Miami John Manobiunco ENSCO Tim Marchok NOAA/GFDL Lynn McMurdie University of Washington Mitch Moncrieff NCAR Robecca Morss NCAR Dave Parsons NCAR Simon Pellerin Meteorological Service of Canada Mel Shapiro NOAA/OAR Istvan Szunyogh University of Maryland Chris Velden CIMSS / Univ. Wisconsin Gary Wick NOAA/ESRL Milija Zupanski CIRA/Colorado State University

4. LINKS BETWEEN THORPEX & IPY • International Polar Year (IPY): • Multi- and interdisciplinary international research experiment 03/2007-02/2009 • Study areas of strongest climate change impact • Comprehensive research in both polar regions • Strong links to the rest of the globe - • Theme 3 (of 6): “Advance our understanding of polar - global interactions by studying teleconnections on all scales.” • THORPEX– A World Weather Research Program (WWRP): • Accelerate improvements in skill/utility of 1-14 day weather forecasts • Long-term (10-yrs) global research program in areas of: • Observing system, data assimilation, numerical modeling/ensemble, socioec. appl. • Strong link with operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers • International program under WMO • Planning initiated with discussions about North Pacific experiment => • Opportunities for IPY - THORPEX Collaboration • Joint THORPEX-IPY Observing period – • Major opportunity for accelerating observing system design work • Improved weather forecasts for polar regions & IPY activities • Scientific investigations: • Link between weather and climate processes • Mid-latitude – Polar interactions • THORPEX IS THE WEATHER COMPONENT OF IPY

5. HYPOTHESES • Rossby-wave propagation plays a major role in the development of high impact weather events over North America and the Arctic on the 3-5 days forecast time scale • Additional remotely sensed and in situ data can complement the standard observational network in capturing critical multi-scale processes in Rossby-wave initiation and propagation • Adaptive configuration of the observing network and data processing can significantly improve the quality of data assimilation and forecast products • Regime dependent planning/targeting • Case dependent targeting • New DA, modeling and ensemble methods can better capture and predict the initiation and propagation of Rossby-waves leading to high impact events • Forecast products, including those developed as part of the TPARC research, will have significant social and/or economic value

6. CASE DEPENDENT, ETKF-BASED ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM March 04 March 05 March 06 March 07 Verification event Sharan Majumdar

7. March 04 March 05 March 06 March 07 Atmospheric River seen from SSM/I water vapor channel Gary Wick

8. Atmospheric River as seen on the PQPF figures March 04 March 05 March 07 March 06

9. PROPOSED OBSERVING PLATFORMS Extensive observational platforms during T-PARC winter phase allow us to track the potential storms and take additional observations as the perturbation propagate downstream into Arctic and US continents Day 3-4 Radiosondes Russia Arctic VR Day 5-6 Radiosondes Tibet CONUS VR D 2-3 G-IV D 1-2 C-130 UAS D-1 UAS P-3

10. CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS • Identify potential high impact weather events over NA and Arctic • At 5-7 day lead time, to improve shorter lead time forecasts • Use NAEFS ensemble forecast products • Weather Service forecaster involvement from US, Canada, Mexico • Determine sensitive areas affecting verification events at different times • Use ETKF or ET or other techniques • Inter-compare results from NCEP, NRL, NASA/GSFC, ECMWF • Consensus decision • Observe conditions in sensitive areas • Use various observing platforms as sensitive areas move through their domain as lead time shortens

11. CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS - 2 • Assimilate all standard and adaptive observations • Use operational DA and forecast systems • Improved NAEFS forecasts • Generate new experimental products based on improved NAEFS system • These include sea ice, freezing spray, river flow forecast etc. • Solicit direct feedback from user community • Enhance products in post-TPARC developments • Evaluate impact of adaptive observations and other NWP methods • Use either operational or enhanced DA/Modeling/ensemble systems • Consider differences between DA/forecast system with/without adaptive data • Inter-compare operational and experimental NWP systems

12. Platforms planned • G-IV Stationed in Japan (Japan contacts: YoshioAsuma and Tetsuo Nakazawa) • Can reach 45,000 feet high, centered on 00Z UTC • Maximum range:3800 nmi • Maximum duration: 8 hrs 45 mins • Contribution from NWS WSR program • Backbone of the whole program • Requested 120 flight hours 360 dropsondes • ISSUES: • Air traffic control • Yokota or Misawa AFB, Japan? (AOC contacts: Jack Parrish and Michele Finn)

13. G-IV Stationed in Japan

14. C-130 C-130 out of Anchorage (USAF) • Can reach 35,000 feet high, centered on 00Z UTC • Maximum range: 1800nmi • Maximum duration: 10 hrs • Part of NCEP WSR program

15. Russia Roshydromet • Alexander Kats • Nina Zaitseva • Dr. Ivanov (Director of CAO) • Dr. Mikhail D. Tsyroulnikov ISSUES: Roshydromet could not pay for the extra sondes.  proposals for both the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Program (VCP) funding (PROVED)

16. Enhanced Siberian network • Additional 06 and 18 UTC observations from the subset of about 40 designated operational stations about 6 weeks • - Space and time distribution (and may be amount of additional observations on each station) will be uneven depending from the weather conditions. - They will be carried out during 10-15 24-h intensive observing periods (IOPs) with 6-hrs soundings in some sensitive areas to be determined during the campaign depending from the weather conditions - Depending on geographical location of sensitive area, during each IOP about 20 of the available 40 stations will be requested (in 18-24 hrs prior to the IOP beginning).

17. Continued • Expected maximum total amount of additional soundings during the campaign is 15 (IOP) x 20 (sites) x 2 (extra soundings) ~ 600 soundings. • Taking into account possible uneven distribution of sounding it is necessary to have on each stations consumables for some 25 additional soundings to avoid running out of consumables at any of the stations before the end of the campaign. • This gives us maximum amount of additional consumables to be distributed for as many as 25 (soundings) x 40 (sites) ~ 1000 soundings. Remaining consumables will be used for the regular soundings after the end of the campaign.

18. Additional stations that we suggested

19. Additional stations requested by winter T-PARC

20. Expected stations by the end of 2009

21. Global Hawk Contacts: NOAA • Gary Wick PSD/ESRL/NOAA • Todd Jacobs NOAA NASA • David Fratello DFRC Systems engineer • Chris Naftel DFRC Project Manager • Phillip Hall OMAO/NASA ISSUES: • Air traffic control • Lidar and dropsonde capability?

22. NOAA THORPEX POTENTIAL OBSERVATION SYSTEM ENHANCEMENT FOR WINTER T-PARC (JAN 09 – MAR 09)

23. NASA Global HAWK dimensions and payload compartments

24. Potential for High Altitude UAS Availability • NOAA UAS program actively pursuing a joint demonstration in March 2009 • Would utilize NASA Global Hawk with operations from NASA Dryden • Plans for completion of a dropsonde system by March 1 • Potential for flights joint with studies of “atmospheric rivers” • Schedule is very challenging but not impossible • Primary hurdles • NOAA UAS program not yet funded • No formal commitment of aircraft availability from NASA • Potential FAA limitations on release of dropsondes from unmanned aircraft

25. Global Hawk Endurance From NASA Dryden 20 hr 15 hr 25 hr

27. Background Slides

28. 11th Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems, Nov 2007

29. Chinese participation • CMA contact person: Dehui Chen chendh@cma.gov.cn • Jing Chen chenj@cma.gov.cn CAMS – Chinese Academy for Meter. Sci.

30. TIBET OBSERVATION NETWORK • IMPORTANCE OF TIBET PLATEAU • Origin of many storm systems in the Northern Hemisphere • Well known important diabatic heating and dynamic forcing effects • Strong influence on East Asia jet stream and downstream weather • HOW THE DATA WILL CONTRIBUTE • Look for possible ways to take adaptive RAOB observations a. Fixed intensive observation periods (Jan 09 – Mar 09) b. Adaptive observing (ETKF or other methods) • Optimize Chinese observational network • Fill data gap in the network • Assimilate data into different DA systems • PROGRESS • GPS sondes, profilers and an array of surface mesoscale networks • Which are expected to leave in place after the field phase of T-PARC

31. Networkfor Tibetan E-Plateau observation

32. PROPOSED OBSERVING PLATFORMS • NOAA and NASA satellites • G-lV out of Japan, ~120 hrs in Jan-Feb period • G-IV 45,000 feet high, centering around 00z • C-130 – covering the mid Pacific over the same time period (USAF) • C-130 30,000 feet high, centering around 00z • P3 (or other asset) • East Pacific or western US (planned contribution by HMT/NOAA) • Enhanced Siberian network • Potential Roshydromet / NOAA and/or NRL contribution • Tibetan Plateau • Asian THORPEX community contribution • Other possible platforms (see T-PARC plan) • Global Hawk from Dryden • Contributions from NOAA UAV program

33. ONR P-3 • Use DWL on P3 to profile winds below & at flight level The ELDORA radar is provided by NCAR. The P3DWL is provided by ONR. The two possible locations for the P3DWL are noted as (1) or (2).

34. P3 Platform

35. P3DWL The MLX-16 coherent Doppler lidar built by LMCT for the US Army (ARL).

36. Cylindrical scanner Shown here is the scanner as mounted in the CIRPAS Twin Otter. The white fairing is used to reduce aerodynamic drag Scanner

37. P3DWL data Description • Nominal vertical domain:0 – 6 km (assumes flight level ~ 6.5 km)Line-of-sight products • Nominal spacing between profiles: 2 km (500m with 90 deg sector processing) • Vertical resolution:~ 50 meters • Accuracy U and V components:.05 m/s (assuming homogeneous wind field) • Accuracy W component:.1 m/s • Additional data collection capabilities: All angles within ±30 degrees of nadir All angles within ±30 degrees of flight path • DWL wind profiles:Buffer format, real time processing, single profile file size about 10 KB

38. Two Types of NOAA Satellite Programs Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites(POES) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Polar Orbiting Satellites Geostationary Satellites N Fairbanks, Data Acquisition Site Wallops, Virginia Wallops, Virginia Fairbanks, Alaska Wallops, Virginia N Data Acquisition Sites Subsatellite Point 540 Mi Equator Equator 22,240 Mi S Orbit Path S Continuously monitors the Western Hemisphere Each satellite covers the entire Earth twice per day • Same geographic image over time • Full image every 30 minutes • Northern Hemisphere imaged every 15 minutes • Usable images between 60°N and 60°S • Information is used for short-term weather forecasting and severe storm warning/tracking • Each orbit is 102 minutes • Global coverage every 12 hours with 1 satellite • Images are global and include the poles • Information is used for long-term weather forecasting and climate monitoring

41. Decision Making Communication setup (webpage and emails) • Identify High impact weather (HIW) events • Inputs from US field offices, research interest groups, Canada, Mexico in advance • Sensitive Area Calculations (SACs) • Run NCEP targeting software • DTS (ECMWF/UK MET OFFICE) • NRL targeting and others? • Select tracks and stations • Fixed tracks for easier air traffic control? • Flexible tracks (UAV)? • Siberia/Tibet Plateau stations • Decisions sent out • 18-36 hours ahead of time • Flexibility of change with 24 hours notification

42. Canada and Mexico Contacts: • Chris Doyle (Canada) • Ricardo Prieto González (Mexico) <rprieto@tlaloc.imta.mx> • Juan M. Caballero (Mexico) jmcaballero@semar.gob.mx

43. Contribution from Mexico • Extra-Rawinsondes (if expendable material is provided) • Ensemble evaluation for the Mexican region • At least one meteorologist volunteering in operational activities

44. Plans for real time parallel at NCEP • Data denial experiment • T126 control and operational experiments • Impact: • Conventional metrological fields, differences display alongside the operational forecast and analysis • Verification: • Post field program period • Legacy programs (Fit to obs, fit to analysis, scores) KEY ISSUE: T-PARC identity BUFR headers

45. Small UAV Contacts: • Gary Wick PSD/ESRL/NOAA • Todd Jacobs NOAA • John Porter U of Hawaii ISSUES: • Which UAV to choose? • Air traffic control • How to allocate the funds for UAV and P3?

46. NOAA THORPEX POTENTIAL OBSERVATION SYSTEM ENHANCEMENT FOR WINTER T-PARC (JAN 09 – MAR 09)

47. MAHALO!!