Spring Bulbs for Schools Investigation R esults 200 6- 201 9

1. Spring Bulbs for SchoolsInvestigation Results 2006-2019

2. The investigation... Since October 2005, school scientists across Wales have been keeping weather records and noting when their flowers open, as part of a long-term study looking at the effects of temperature on spring bulbs.

3. We continue to work in partnership with The Edina Trust who provide funding and support for the project and have extended its reach to schools in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland! 173schools took part this year!

4. Participating schools planted daffodiland crocusbulbs in October and took weather readings from November to March. They entered their weekly weather records and the flowering dates and heights of their plants to the AmgueddfaCymru - National Museum Wales website. The table below shows the rainfall and temperature recorded by YsgolHywelDdafrom November 2018to March 2019.

5. The long term study… Our climate and seasons are changing. Overthe next 10-20 years (and hopefully longer) we want school scientists to show how climate change is affecting flowering times in spring bulbs. In the short term there is plenty for schools to study. This project is aimed at KS2 and draws on numeracy, literacy and digital skills. The project compliments elements of the national curriculum for Science, Geography, Maths, Art and ICT. Educational resources are available on the project website: http://www.museumwales.ac.uk/spring-bulbs/

6. Huge thanks! Professor Plant and Baby Bulb would like to thank all of the school scientists that kept and shared their records with us this year! You are all Super Scientists!

7. Schools to be awarded certificates • England: • Bursar Primary Academy • Kidgate Primary Academy • Mablethorpe Primary Academy • Perry Hall Primary School • Tattershall Primary School • Thorn Primary School • Welholme Academy • Woodlands Infant and Nursery School • Wales: • FordenCiW School • NPTC Newtown College • Rougemont Primary • St Mark's V A School • St Philip Evans Catholic Primary • Willowtown Community Primary School • Ysgol GymraegCasnewydd • Ysgol GymraegTrelyn • Ysgol Nantymoel • Northern Ireland: • Black Mountain Primary School • Good Shepherd Primary and Nursery School • Harmony Primary School • St Matthew's Primary School • Scotland: • Alexander Peden Primary School • Carrutherstown Primary School • Our Lady & St Francis Primary School To receive Super Scientist certificates and pencils.

8. Schools with special recognition: • Wales: • Albert Primary School • Blaendulais Primary School • Padre Pio Catholic Primary • Shirenewton primary • St Josephs Primary • Trellech Primary • YGG Aberdar • Ysgol Casmael • Ysgol Gymraeg Bro Helyg • Ysgol Llandwrog • England: • Corringham Primary School • Malcolm Sargent Primary School • Old Clee Primary Academy • PotterhanworthCofE Primary School • St Faith & St Martin Junior School • St Nicholas Primary School • Stanford in the Vale Primary School • Woodlands Academy • Scotland: • Auchencairn Primary School • Dalreoch Primary School • Our Lady of Peace Primary School • Saint Anthony's Primary School • St Peter's Primary School Northern Ireland: • St Anne's Primary School • St Kieran's Primary School • St Patrick's Primary School • St Teresa's Primary School • Steelstown Primary School To be awarded certificates, pencils and sunflower seeds.

9. Highly Commended Schools Highly commended schools: • Wales: • Cadoxton Primary School • Darran Park Primary School • Evenlode Primary • Hendredenny Park Primary • Hendrefoilan Primary School • Henllys C/W Primary • Llanharan Primary School • Llanyrafon Primary School • Peterston Super Ely CiW Primary • Plasnewydd Primary • St. Robert’s Catholic Primary • Tonyrefail Community School • Whitestone Primary School • Ysgol Beulah • Ysgol Bro Pedr • Ysgol Deganwy • Ysgol Gymraeg Aberystwyth • Ysgol GymraegDewiSant • Ysgol GynraddGymraegTonyrefail • Ysgol San Sior • Ysgol YsbytyIfan • England: • Arkholme Primary School • Carnforth North Road Primary • Chorley St James CE Primary • East RavendaleCofE Primary School • Edenham Church of England Primary • Fleet Wood Lane Primary School • Garstang St Thomas' CE Primary • GonerbyHill Foot School • Hudson Road Primary School • Kirkby La Thorpe C of E Primary • Our Lady Queen of Peace Primary • Sibsey Free Primary School • St Michael’s Primary School • St Peter’s Catholic Primary • Scotland: • Gartocharn Primary School • Gavinburn Primary School • Greenburn School • Hill of Beath Primary School • Knoxland Primary School • Newmains Primary School • Ochiltree Primary School • Whatriggs Primary School • Wormit Primary Northern Ireland: Loughash Primary School To be awarded certificates, pencils, sunflower seeds and surprise seeds.

10. Winners 2016 Runners-up Wales:Ysgol Hywel Dda England: Penn Hall School Scotland:CarnbroePrimary School Northern Ireland:Holy Cross Girls' Primary To be awarded certificates, pencils, a variety seeds and gift vouchers.

11. Winners 2016 Winners 2019 Wales: St Julian’s Primary School England: Whitgreave Junior School Scotland:Biggar Primary School Northern Ireland:St Peter's Primary School Eachwill receive certificates, pencils, seeds and a prize for the class!

12. Summary 2005-2019 The following summary looks at key patterns and trends evident in the data recorded by schools over the last 14years. Weather readings are taken between November and March, meaning that records for each year include readings from the November and December of the previous year. For example, when the report talks about results for 2006, it’s referring to data taken from November 2005 to March 2006. You can download the data to study it yourself at: www.museumwales.ac.uk/scan/bulbs

13. UK & Welsh data Schools in Wales have been collecting data since 2005. Schools in England and Scotland have been collecting data since 2011. Schools in Northern Ireland have been collecting data since 2017. We have produced two summary reports. The first looks at data collected from across the UK 2011-2019and compares readings from England, Scotland, Northern Irelandand Wales. The second looks at data collected from Wales 2005-2019.

14. UK Results Summary

15. Which country was the warmest / coldest? The bar chart shows the average overall temperatures for Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Irelandfrom November 2018to March 2019. We can see that Englandhad the highest average overall temperature at 6.5ᵒC. Scotland was by far the coldest of the four,with an average of 4.7ᵒC.

16. Which country had the most / least sunshine? The bar chart shows us the average hours of sunshine for Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Irelandfrom November 2018to March 2019. England had the most hours of sunshine for this period, with an average of 83.7hours. Northern Irelandhad the least hours of sunshine with an average of 56.8 hours.

17. Which country had the most / least rain? The bar chart shows us the average rainfall for Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland from November 2018to March 2019. We can see from this graph that Waleswas the wettest country for this period, with an average rainfall of 149mm and England was the driest with an average rainfallof 72.9mm.

18. We’ve looked closely at this years averages for temperature, hours of sunshine and rainfall and have compared results from Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Now lets see how this years findings compare to those of previous years! Do you think the weather has been warmer or colder than last year? Have we had more hours of sunshine or less? Has it been wetter or drier? Lets find out…

19. The line chart shows average monthly temperatures for the period November-March for the years 2012-2019. We can see from the chart that temperatures in 2018-19 were relatively high in comparison to previous years. This year saw the highest temperatures for February since our study began, in contrast to last year which saw the lowest February temperatures!

20. The bar chart shows the average temperatures for the period November-March for the years 2012 to 2019. We can see from the chart that 2019was the third warmest year since our study began, with an average temperature of 5.9ᵒC.

21. The line chart shows average hours of sunshine for the period November-March for the years 2012-2019. We can see from the chart that 2019had the highest hours of sunshine for February since our study began! It’s interesting to compare this years results with those from 2017, which saw the lowest hours of sunshine for February! The graph shows that this years project saw slightly less sunshine November to December than last year, and more sunshine January to March.

22. The bar chart shows average hours of sunshine for the period November-March for the years 2012-2019. 2019 saw the third highest levels of sunshine since our UK wide study began. This is in contrast to last year, which sawthe thirdlowestaverage hours of sunshine since our UK wide study began. There are 25 hours difference between the year that saw the highest average hours of sunshine (2012) and the year that saw the lowest (2016). 2013

23. The line chart shows the average rainfall for the periodNovember-March in the years 2012-2019. We can see from the chart that 2019 saw the lowest average rainfall for January and the highest for March since our UK wide study began. This year and 2017 are the only years to show an increase in rainfall between January and February.

24. The bar chart shows average rainfall for the period November-March for the years 2012 to 2019. The bar chart shows us that 2019was the third driest year since UK wide records began, with an average rainfall of 102mm. 2016 was the wettest year of the project, with an average rainfall of 158mm. 2019 saw average rainfall when compared to previous years. 2016 2014 2014 2016 2017

25. We can see that Northern Ireland was the second warmest country, but it also saw the lowest hours of sunshine. England was the warmest country and saw the highest levels of sunshine, but the least rain. Wales saw the highest rainfall and Scotland saw the lowest temperatures. What does this mean for our results? Plants need air, light, warmth, water and nutrients to grow.

26. Our results show that flowers opened earlier in Northern Irelandthis year Plants may have flowered earlier in Wales than in Scotland and England because it had high temperatures, hours of sunlight and rainfall. Scotland saw the latest flowering dates. Plants may have flowered later in Scotland because it had the lowest temperatures. Interestingly, although England was the sunniest and warmest country, it had the least amount of rain. This may be why flowers opened later here than in Wales and Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland saw the earliest flowering dates, this is likely because it had high temperatures.

27. It’s interesting to compare results from 2019with the overall averages for the project. The table shows that 2019saw above average temperatures and hours of sunshine, and lower than average rainfall. Perhaps as a consequence of this, our crocus and daffodil flowered earlier than expected. 2019 Saw the earliest combined flowering dates since our UK wide study began. Results table for the UK 2012-2019

28. Why did our plants flower earlierthisyear? This year saw the warmest and sunniest February since our UK wide project began. We also saw an increase in rainfall in February. Our data shows a direct correlation between average temperatures, sunlight hours and the flowering dates of our bulbs. Only two other years saw above average temperatures and hours of sunlight, 2012 and 2014. Both of these also saw earlier than average flowering dates. 2012 saw the closest flowering dates to 2019. This year saw higher temperatures and sunlight hours than 2019. We might have expected this to result in earlier flowering dates. Click here to compare these two years in more detail and see why plants might have flowered later in 2012 than in 2019….

29. Download the results yourself to… • Make graphs and frequency charts to calculate the mean. • See if the flowers opened later in schools that recorded colderweather. • See how temperature, sunshine and rainfall affect the average flowering dates. • Look for trends between different locations. Visit: www.museumwales.ac.uk/scan/bulbs

30. Welsh Results Summary

31. Welsh results table 2006-2019 2019 saw earlier than average flowering dates for both the crocus and daffodil. Let’s look in more detail at the temperature, rainfall and hours of sunshine to see if we can figure out why our plants flowered so early!

32. The line chart shows average temperatures in Walesfor the period November-March for the years 2006-2019. The line chart shows the average temperatures for the period November to March in Wales since 2006. We can see that 2019saw the second highest temperatures for December and the highest for February since our project began.

33. 2016 2016 2018 The bar chart shows average temperatures in Walesfor the period November to March for the years 2006 to 2019. We can see that 2019 saw the third highest overall temperatures since our project began.

34. The line chart shows average hours of sunshine in Walesfor the period November-March for the years 2006-2019. What an interesting year! We can see from the chart that 2019had the lowest average hours of sunshine for December, the second lowest for January and the second highest for February. It’s interesting to note that 2008 is the only year which saw earlier flowering dates for both the crocus and daffodil. It’s also the only year to see higher February temperatures.

35. 2019 2018 The bar chart shows average hours of sunshine for the period November to March for the years 2006 to 2019. We can see from the chart that although 2019 saw the highest levels of sunshine for this period since 2015, hours of sunshine were still lower than average when compared to previous years.

36. The line chart shows the average monthly rainfall in Walesfor the period November to March for the years 2006 to 2019. We can see from the chart that 2019 saw the second lowest rainfall for January and the highest for March since our project began. It’s interesting to compare the pattern for 2019 and 2018, as both years had very similar overall rainfall for this period. However, this graph shows that the pattern of rainfall was very different.

37. The bar chart shows average rainfall for the period November-March for the years 2006 to 2019. The chart shows that 2019 saw very similar levels of rainfall to 2018. 2018

38. 2010 2009 2014 2016 2006 2011 2017 2015 208 The bar chart shows the average flowering dates for Wales sincethe project began in2006. The average flowering date for 2019 for both the crocus and daffodil dates combined is 24th February. This is the second earlies flowering date since the project began. Can you see which year plants flowered earlier? Click here to see if you are right!

39. How does the weather effect flowering times in the daffodil?

40. The bar chart shows that 2019saw daffodils flower earlier than they have since 2008, which was the only year to see earlier flowering dates. 2010 2007

41. The chart shows the effects of temperature on flowering dates for the daffodil. The height of the blue lines illustrates the temperature and where they are on the graph relates to the average flowering date for that year. The black line running across the graph shows the trend, this indicates the pattern we would expect to see from our results.

42. The trend shows that daffodils flower later when temperatures are lower. But there are some exceptions, can you spot them? Top tip: The black line is only an indication of the pattern we’d expect to see. Year’s don’t have to meet this line exactly to fit our trend.

43. Q: What years don’t fit the trend?A: 2016, 2014, 2012, 2011 & 2009 Possible explanation: Although temperatures were high in 2016, 2014 & 2012, flowers did not open early. This is probably because hours of sunshine remained low until March in these years. Although temperatures were lower than average in 2009 and 2011, flowers opened earlier than we might have expected. 2011 saw the second highest temperatures for February since the project began and 2009 saw a sharp increase in temperature in February and the driest February of the project.

44. The trend shows that when hours of sunshine are lower, daffodils open later. But there are some exceptions, can you spot the fivemost unusual years?

45. Q: Which were the most unusual years?A: 2019, 2017, 2011, 2010 & 2006 • We might have expected daffodils to flower later in 2019 and 2017due to the low hours of sunshine. They may have flowered earlier than we’d have expected because both year’s saw a sharp increase in hours of sunshine in February/March and because temperatures were higher than average for February and March. • We might have expected daffodils to have flowered earlier in 2011, 2010 and 2006due to relatively high hours of sunshine. The average daffodil flowering date was the same in 2011 and 2014, even though 2011 was sunnier. This may be because temperatures were very low in 2011 and quite high in 2014.

46. What do these graphs tell us about flowering dates? By comparing the trends for temperature and hours of sunshine we can see that both are necessary for our bulbs to flower. 2019 saw higher than average temperatures, lower than average hours of sunshine and had earlier than average flowering dates. It’s important to look at monthly overviews for temperature, hours of sunshine and rainfall. These can often explain anomalies in our results. 2019 having the highest temperatures and second highest hours of sunshine for February since our project began will be one reason our plants flowered early.

47. How does the weather effect flowering times in the crocus?

48. 2009 2010 2006 2008 We can see from the bar chart that2019 saw the third earliest average flowering date for the crocus. 2008 and 2007 both saw an average flowering date of 26 February.

49. The trend shows that crocus flowers open later when temperatures are lower. There are some exceptions, can you spot them? What might be the cause?

50. Q: What years don’t fit the trend?A: 2018, 2017, 2016, 2014, 2012, 2006 & 2011 Possible explanation: We would have expected plants to flower earlier in 2017, 2016, 2014 & 2012. By looking at our other graphs we can see that 2016 and 2012 saw a sharp decrease in temperature in February. 2017 saw the lowest hours of sunshine in February since our project began. It’s possible that high levels of rainfall effected the flowering dates of plants in 2014 and 2016.