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Risk Retention: Is It Worth It?

This article explores the considerations and factors involved in deciding whether to retain risk or transfer it through insurance. It examines the difference between a claim and a risk, the impact on expected losses and volatility, as well as the financial implications. Case examples are used to illustrate the decision-making process.

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Risk Retention: Is It Worth It?

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  1. Casualty Actuarial Society March 13, 2006 Viewing Risk Through theEyes of the Insured

  2. Question - Is it a good deal? Client Considerations on Risk • Traditional, non-analytic approaches • Difference between a claim and a risk are cloudy • Claims in a normal year are a normal expense • Aggregation of annual claims are considered “risk” • Risk is negative variability from expected • Higher retention = higher expected losses retained • Assuming higher levels of retention increases volatility, but it may not be material • Retaining risk and avoiding premium is the reward for accepting the chance of higher claim expense

  3. Is It Better – in Risk Retention, It Depends • How much premium is saved? • What is the difference in expected losses? • How much volatility is added? • What is the value of the added volatility? • What parts of the financial equation are impacted?

  4. Example General Liability $250k Attachment Forecasted retained losses (unlimited) = $5,000,000 Premium = $1,000,000 General Liability $750k Attachment Premium = $500,000 Which is the better deal?

  5. It Depends • What are the losses expected at $250,000 loss limitation? • What are the losses expected at $750,000 loss limitation • What is the relative timing of the loss payments on the differential? • What is the impact of the tax deduction timing?

  6. Example General Liability $250k Attachment Forecasted retained losses (limited) = $3,000,000 Premium = $1,000,000 General Liability $750k Attachment Forecasted retained losses (limited) = $4,000,000 Premium = $500,000 Which is the better deal?

  7. Why Retain Risk? • Avoiding frictional costs • Premium taxes • Insurance company profit/overhead • Risk pooling cost • Risk may be immaterial • Many losses are predictable • Difference in perception of risk

  8. Conventional Wisdom – Bigger is Better • Higher retentions results in lower cost • Higher retentions improve control • Large retentions are good • Buying risk transfer is bad • Problems • Based on different times • Assumes that risk transfer cost avoided results in lower cost • May be true, but objective analysis is required to know • Test for effectiveness: If the worst case happens, will you still be employed?

  9. Most Common Ways an Insured Views Retention and Limits Needed • Ratio rules of thumb • Market driven • Premium too high • Management decision based on feel • "Threshold of pain" • "Not a problem - couldn't happen to us" logic • Peer benchmarks

  10. Ratio Rules of Thumb • Various ratios to financial statements added provide an overall risk retention capacity in excess of expected • Problems • Aggregate capacity figure has little practical use • Overly broad • No relationship to premium avoided • Ratios are subjectively set

  11. Market Driven • During hard market, retentions forced up by insurers • Got used to it - the bad thing didn’t happen • No reason for exploring - now used to higher level and management understands • Problems • Not based on rational decision • Doesn't measure risk reward relationship • Externally controlled • Assumes status quo is OK • Doesn't lead to least cost decision

  12. Premium Too High • Premium expense not in budget • Quotes too high for perceived benefit • Problems • No objective consideration of risk/reward • Unanticipated claim isn't in the budget • Will stockholders consider the premium too high after a loss?

  13. Management Decision Based on Feel • Decision based on management comfort • Risk Manager can't have a problem based on a directive • Problems • Decision based on reaction rather than objective analysis • Management looks to risk management for input, shouldn't be forced to decide without information • No rational decision can result

  14. Threshold of Pain • Much like decision on feel, just masked as an EPS decision • Same issues as management decision on feel, modified by how the stockholders might react, based on EPS • Problems • Same as prior slide • Ignores transfer savings or expense in the equation • Sounds more scientific - it isn’t

  15. "Not a Problem – Couldn't Happen to Us" Logic • Common human response to unlikely event • Ignores probability of losses • Assumes losses happening to others won't occur to me • Assumes past adverse loss experience will not repeat itself • Problems • Irrational • Least cost decision by luck only - rolling the dice

  16. Peer Benchmarks • Blind leading the blind? • Assumes others are efficient • Easy fallback - can't be faulted • Problems • Statistically not comparable • Assumes your risks are identical • Accuracy/interpretation of responses • Doesn't measure risk reward relationship

  17. Considering Expected Loss Differences • Retained loss expectancy increases as retention levels increase

  18. Considering Expected Loss Differences • Volatility increases as retentions increase

  19. Risk Retention as an Investment Decision

  20. How Can Retaining Risk Be an Investment? • When risk is retained, capital is contingently exposed • If losses occur beyond expected, income and net worth both decrease • When net worth decreases, there is an impact to ongoing interest expense • Retaining risk results in a immediate reward - the premium saved • Retention decisions impact other investment opportunities

  21. How Can Retaining Risk Be an Investment? • When risk is retained, capital is contingently exposed • If losses occur beyond expected, income and net worth both decrease • When net worth decreases, there is an impact to ongoing interest expense • Retaining risk results in a immediate reward - the premium saved • Retention decisions impact other investment opportunities Result – Much like an equity option decision

  22. Equity Option Comparison Put Option on Microsoft Stock price = $25 per share Put option to sell stock at $22.5 expiring January, 2006 Option price on March 11 = $2.25 Option price for $20 strike = $1.35

  23. What Happens? • If stock remains the same or increases, put has no value at expiration, buyer loses $2.25 • Seller of option makes $2.25 • Buyer of option received protection against MSFT decreasing to $20.25 instead of selling it now and losing the upside potential • On the expiration date, coverage expires

  24. Why is This Like Retention? Decisions • Owner of stock purchased "protection" for a premium • Covers a defined period • If no loss, the premium is lost • If a loss, buyer of coverage is made whole • Seller of the option contingently exposes their capital to gain the premium in the same way as one who retains risk to avoid premium payment • Over time neither buyer or seller "win", as rational pricing models take into account stock volatility • Credit for $20 strike recognizes lower probability of attaching

  25. Valuing Volatility by Line • Each exposure has its inherent volatility • The more volatile the exposure, the higher the amount of avoided premium needed to assume the exposure • Unlike options, insurance market pricing is individual risk based, and may be more imperfect • Markets may lead to purchasing coverage or avoiding coverage in a non-traditional way

  26. How do You Calculate the Investment Return on Retention? • Calculate the expected losses (the mean) at alternative retentions • Calculate the difference between the 99% confidence interval and the mean • Multiply the difference times a hurdle rate for an investment with a similar risk profile ("risk margin") • Add the expected increase plus the risk margin to calculate the value of the retention • Present value to take into account claim payment and tax deduction timing • Compare to premium difference

  27. Example • m = $7.795M @ $250k • m = $8.123M @ $1M • 99% Confidence = $9.912M @ $250k • 99% Confidence = $10.902M @ $1M • Hurdle Rate = 10% (assumed) • Premium at $250k retention = $548,000 • Premium at $1M retention = $358,000

  28. Step 1 Calculate the expected losses (the mean) at alternative retentions $8.123M - $7.795M .328M

  29. Step 2 Calculate the difference between the 99% confidence interval and the mean $10.902M - $9.912M .990M

  30. Step 3 Multiply the difference times a hurdle rate for an investment with a similar risk profile ("risk margin") $.990M * 10% $.099M

  31. Step 4 Add the expected increase plus the risk margin to calculate the value of the retention $.328M + .099M $.427M

  32. Step 5 Present value to take into account claim payment and tax deduction timing $.418M * .78% $.333M

  33. Step 6 Compare to premium difference $548,000 - $358,000 $190,000

  34. Step 6 Compare to premium difference $548,000 - $358,000 $190,000 Not Good Enough! Must be at Least $333,000

  35. What Rate of Return is Needed? • Internal rate of return? • What if its negative? • Uncertainty of timing • Does the business have the same risk profile? • Short term cost of money? • Borrowing, not investment rate • Debt has no risk profile • Cost of Capital • Investment decision process • Payback period • Impact on stock price?

  36. Question If you have a very profitable organization with numerous investment possibilities, should you retain more or less risk?

  37. Question Should you set higher retentions in a soft market?

  38. It Depends Entirely on Risk – Reward Relationship • If premium avoided is more than the additional loss expectation and a risk margin, then yes • If an insurer is willing to put up their capital at a lower price than your firm, then no

  39. The Efficient FrontierAnother Look at the Same Concept • Each point represents an alternative portfolio of • risk financing/transfer strategies. For example, this point on the risk/return sphere may represent : • a casualty per occurrence retention of $10.0 Million, • a property retention of 20.0Million • FinPro Retention of $25.0 Million Return = Savings from Guaranteed Cost

  40. The Efficient FrontierAnother Look at the Same Concept C A D B

  41. The Efficient FrontierAnother Look at the Same Concept - Company Risk/Return Indifference (Utility) 25% 20% Return C A 15% D B XYZ Corp Indifference Curve = Mean Value of Return Distribution 10% 5% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Risk = Standard Deviation of Return Distribution

  42. The Efficient FrontierAnother Look at the Same Concept

  43. The Efficient FrontierAnother Look at the Same Concept

  44. The Efficient FrontierAnother Look at the Same Concept

  45. Outcome of Efficient Frontier • There is a continuum of efficient alternatives where risk and cost trade-off balance • On the frontier, there may be efficiency, but that does not imply a willingness to accept the higher level of risk • Each point “Southeast” of the frontier is less efficient that points on the line • Each point further to the “Northwest” of the frontier on the map is more efficient, but not available in the market • As markets harden, the frontier moves down and right • As markets soften, they move up and left • Similar to efficient frontier concepts in other financial decisions

  46. What About Limits Insured? • Much more complex decision • Modeling is less certain in the tail of the distribution • Less (or no) losses in the extremes • Modeling less helpful, as the outcomes are random and wide • Still useful as a guide • Most risk managers revert to the traditional approaches • Most difficult question to answer and may not be answerable in an analytic way

  47. Summation • Retaining more or less risk is not a qualitative decision, its economic • Contingently exposing corporate resources to volatility without a return is irrational • Care must be taken to avoid losing control or decreasing loss and claim control efforts • Must be willing to accept year to year changes in retentions (inconsistent?) • Limits purchased is also a risk-reward relationship, but with fewer tools to assess, unlikely to occur and more catastrophic if it does • If you don't consider all possibilities, your replacement will.

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