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The long run effects of natural disasters: Thinking after the scientists have left

The long run effects of natural disasters: Thinking after the scientists have left . How should we think about disaster consequences?. GDP,GNI, HDI ?. Time. Extreme event of nature. Development outcomes. Earthquakes with the same magnitude cause vastly different mortality outcomes . .

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The long run effects of natural disasters: Thinking after the scientists have left

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  1. The long run effects of natural disasters: Thinking after the scientists have left

  2. How should we think about disaster consequences? GDP,GNI, HDI ? Time Extreme event of nature Development outcomes

  3. Earthquakes with the same magnitude cause vastly different mortality outcomes. GDP,GNI, HDI ? Time Extreme event of nature Development outcomes

  4. Socio-economic outcome are quite variable also GDP? Time GAR 2009

  5. From Hazard to DisasterA (mag) does not predict L, and Instantaneous loss L is not the economic cost.

  6. T1 Recovery draws on reserve funds. Need for use of large reserve makes L3 > L2 > L and T2> T1 L2 L T2 L L3 L3 > L2 > L R

  7. Period of stagnation, S1, short; recovery time = T1 Long period of stagnation, S2; recovery time T2 > T1 L2 T1 L > S1 < T2 L3 L L3 > L2 > L > S2 <

  8. Modest growth rate; “recovery” time = T1 T1 Growth rate matters T2 Slow growth rate; “recovery” time = T2 > T1

  9. T1 Is the triangle area is the true cost to the economy? T2

  10. The true economic cost is more like the area in gray plus the area in pink.

  11. Total cost to an economy is not predicted by the initial losses. Slow recovery rates can lead to high costs even with low initial losses. L1 A2 > A1 L1> L2 L2

  12. The growth rate in recovery must exceed the pre-disaster growth.

  13. Is a post-recovery gain possible??.

  14. We should we think about disasters as processes not as events. GDP,GNI, HDI ? Time Extreme event of nature Development outcomes

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