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Drought Management Using MIMOSE

Drought Management Using MIMOSE. Michael Möhring Institute for Computer Applications in the Social Sciences 8./9. November, Oxford, GB. Preliminary Remarks. Straightforward attempt to design and implement the given drought management model

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Drought Management Using MIMOSE

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  1. Drought ManagementUsing MIMOSE Michael Möhring Institute for Computer Applications in the Social Sciences 8./9. November, Oxford, GB

  2. Preliminary Remarks • Straightforward attempt to design and implement the • given drought management model • (based on Cindy‘s papers and an extensive email traffic • between her and me) • Explicit representation of all model entities by model • objects in MIMOSE (e.g. EA/WC, options) • Basic Process Flow: • Calculate the monthly storage by using different • sources (e.g. supply/demand, options • Evaluate trigger and rules in EA/WC by using the • actual water information • Determine the amount of water coming from the • options, which contribute to the monthly storage Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

  3. Model Structure in MIMOSE WATER EA WC EA1 WC1 NEG1 WC2 NEG2 WC3 NEG3 Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

  4. Model Object: WATER WATER Storage :real := DBalance + WcBalance + OptEa1.Outcome + OptWc1.Outcome; DBalance :real := Storage_1 + ResSupply[count] - ResDem[count]; WcBalance :real := 0 if(WcBalance0)<= 0 else WcBalance0;WcBalance0 :real := WcSupply[count] + DroughtOn[count] - WcDemand[count]; Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

  5. Model Object: EA EA  WC EaDwt: int := 1 if WSt.Storage_1 <= EADWT else 0;EaDt : int := 1 if WSt.Storage_1 <= EADT else 0;Rea1 :int := 1 if EaDwt && (((count >= 1) && (count <= 3)) || ((count >= 8) && (count <= 12))) else 0;Rea2 :int := 1 if EaDwt && ((count >= 4) && (count <= 7)) else 0; Rea3 :int := 1 if EaDt else 0; Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

  6. Model Object: EA1 EA1  WC1/NEG1/... Outcome : int := (Impact - EffRed) if (Ea.Rea1 || Ea.Rea2) && (Wc.Rwc1 || Wc.Rwc2) else Impact;Count : int := (Count_1 + 1) if (Ea.Rea1 || Ea.Rea2) else Count_1; Impact : int := case Count of 0 : 0; 1 : ImpInit; default : Impact_1 + Incr; end;ImpInit : int;ImpMax : int;Incr : int;... Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

  7. External Constants EA drought warning trigger  EA EADWT := 3000; EA drought trigger  EAEADT := 1000; WC drought warning trigger  WC WCDWT := 3000; WC drought trigger  WC WCDT := 1000; Efficieny Reduction  EA/WC EffRed := 10; Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

  8. State of Implementation • Representation of the static model structure according to • the given descriptions (e.g. Storage, EA/WC, rules, • options) • Reproduction of the given simulation results (without • contributions coming the „negotiation“ in step 8,9, and 10) •  testing the basic process flow •  testing the interplay between the first basic rules and the • corresponding options • Concrete ideas for implementing the negotiation process • described so far (e.g. • determination of the potential set of options • reduction of the option set by using rules R4 to R8 • ( more information and discussion needed) Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

  9. Open Questions • Negotiation Process •  direct (e.g. exchanging informations about appropriate • options) •  indirect (e.g. selecting the same NEG option) • Rules •  Completeness •  Hierarchical structure (e.g.) • R1, R2, R3, R9: Basic Rules • R4-R8: Subrules to reduce the set of options • generated by applying R3 •  R4 – R8 • Validity (e.g. is cost always low priority (R8)) • Priority • ... Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

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