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Tools For Drought Management

Tools For Drought Management. Water Management in the face of droughts require Skilful Hydrologic Forecasting/Simulation Tool Statistical or Hydrologic Models (PRMS, SWAT, etc.) for ~seasonal time scales

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Tools For Drought Management

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  1. Tools For Drought Management • Water Management in the face of droughts require • Skilful Hydrologic Forecasting/Simulation Tool • Statistical or Hydrologic Models (PRMS, SWAT, etc.) for ~seasonal time scales • Stochastic Flow Simulation tools for longer term (multi-year, decades) planning and management • Decision Support tool of the agriculture/water resources system • RiverWare

  2. Seasonal Streamflow Forecast/Simulation • Hydrologic Models • PRMS, SWAT • Statistical Models • Nonlinear Regression approach for ensemble forecasts [incorporating large-scale land-ocean-atmospheric information, Grantz et al., 2005; Regonda et al., 2006] • Skilful, provides uncertainty estimates via ensembles

  3. Truckee / Carson Basin - Application • Study Area • Hydroclimatology, Management • Spring Streamflow Forecast Models [incorporating large-scale land-ocean-atmospheric information, Grantz et al., 2005] • Decision Support Model • Drive the streamflow forecast through the decision model. Investigate skills in the decision variables

  4. Study Area PYRAMID LAKE WINNEMUCCA LAKE (dry) CALIFORNIA NEVADA Nixon Stillwater NWR Derby Dam STAMPEDE Reno/Sparks Fernley Fallon TRUCKEE RIVER INDEPENDENCE BOCA Newlands Project PROSSER Truckee CARSON LAKE MARTIS LAHONTAN Carson City DONNER Tahoe City CARSON RIVER LAKE TAHOE NEVADA Truckee Carson CALIFORNIA TRUCKEE CANAL Farad Ft Churchill

  5. Average Monthly Flows • Primarily snowmelt driven basins (April, May, June) • Correlate Fall/ Winter Climate Signals with AMJ Streamflow

  6. Truckee Canal Management Issues • Irrigation/Agriculture decisions on the Newland Irrigation district are made in Feb much before the peak flow occurs • So, skilful long-lead seasonal streamflow forecasts on Truckee and Carson Rivers are required • Forecasts determine • How storage targets will be met on the Lahonton reservoir for irrigation • How much water to divert from Truckee to Carson via the Truckee Canal • How much water will be available for Irrigation

  7. Lahontan Storage Available for Irrigation Truckee River Water Available for Fish Diversion through the Truckee Canal Decision Variables

  8. RiverWare – River and Reservoir Decision Support System Operational Decisions Predictions Statistical Output Economic Analysis Environ analysis Tradeoff Analysis Inflow Forecast OR Historical Hydrology OR Stochastic inflows Models interaction of Hydrologic response of River /Reservoir system (includes Hydropower) With Multi-objective operating policies

  9. Truckee-Carson RiverWare Model

  10. Carson Spring Flow 500 mb Geopotential Height Winter Climate Link Low flow Years High flow Years • High flow years go with S.Westerly winds in the Basin • during winter  increased moisture/snow  increased streamflow • in spring. • Vice-Versa for Low flow years Grantz et al., 2005 – Water Resources Research

  11. Identified large scale land-ocean-atmosphere predictors for Truckee/Carson spring (April-June total) streamflow • Used a Nonlinear regression framework (local polynomials) to generate ensemble of spring streamflow forecasts • Forecasts issued on the 1st of each month starting from Nov 1st through April 1st • Skills evaluated using correlation coefficient and RPSS (RPSS = 1 implies categorical forecast, 0, no better than climatology)

  12. Forecasting Results • Skills increase • with decrease • in lead-time • Significant skill • even on Jan 1st • and Feb 1st • (when snow info • is partial)

  13. Forecast Ensembles are Used to drive the Decision Support System for the Truckee/Carson Baisn(Forecast skills of the decision variables evaluated)

  14. Decision Model Results Canal Diversion Water for Fish Irrigation Water Dec 1st Forecast Feb 1st Forecast Significant skill Especially from Feb1st onwards Apr 1st Forecast

  15. Dry Year: 1994 April 1st February 1st December 1st Truckee Forecast Carson Forecast Storage for Irrigation Canal Diversion Water for Fish

  16. Wet Year: 1993 April 1st February 1st December 1st Truckee Forecast Carson Forecast Storage for Irrigation Canal Diversion Water for Fish

  17. Normal Year: 2003 April 1st February 1st December 1st Truckee Forecast Carson Forecast Storage for Irrigation Canal Diversion Water for Fish

  18. Exceedance Probabilities

  19. Summary • Developed a streamflow forecast framework incorporating large-scale ocean-atmospheric-land variables • Skilful long-lead streamflow forecasts obtained on the Truckee/Carson river basin ~4-5 months ahead of the spring peak flow • Developed a Decision Support System that incorporates all the management aspects of the water resources system • Skilful streamflow forecasts translated into skills in the decision variables – especially the amount of flow available for irrigation • The Integrated streamflow-Decision Support System provides a robust framework for effective management of droughts both in the short and longer time scales • Streamflow scenarios can be generated conditioned on climate change, land use change, water use change etc. and management/decision strategies evaluated

  20. AcknowledgementsMs. Katrina Grantz for USBR Truckee Office for financial support of this studyCADSWES for computation and logistics support

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