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Beyond the Kyoto Firewall

Beyond the Kyoto Firewall. Anna Korppoo Moscow, 26 January 2012. The Durban Platform, the Russian Proposal and Differentiation of Country Groups. Firewall: Common but differentiated responsibilities.

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Beyond the Kyoto Firewall

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  1. Beyond the Kyoto Firewall Anna Korppoo Moscow, 26 January 2012 The Durban Platform, the Russian Proposal and Differentiation of Country Groups

  2. Firewall: Common but differentiated responsibilities • Only Annex I (developed) countries required to adopt legally binding quantifiable mitigation / stabilization targets – Convention, KP, BAP • G77+China defend right to develop / equity fiercely: KP2 seen as a safeguard – developed countries must take lead since they are already wealthy + caused the problem • Annex I want to change: world has changed, cannot reduce emissions enough to stop climate change without emerging economies • Graduation towards Annex I group discussed in 2000s, relevant again after Durban

  3. Durban Platform – road to graduation? • process / roadmap towards a new regime: ‘a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties’ • new Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform (AWG-DP): finalize work by 2015 – into force 2020 • CBDR not explicitly mentioned – firewall down? • Open questions: • Political will? Coalition of the unwilling in Durban? • CBDR in Convention – AWG-DP under Convention • Yet another roadmap… • Agenda of AWG-DP to be decided in 2012

  4. The Russian Proposal • Proposal to amend the Convention (article 4, paragraph 2 f): • Economic and technological development since 1992: amendments to Annexes I and II should be reviewed on periodic basis until the objective of the Convention (to prevent dangerous atmospheric interference) has been achieved • Negotiation group in Durban: • G77 and China opposed in principle and claimed to need more time • Annex I Parties supported • Gooddiscussionopening by Russia - continues

  5. Trends since early 1990s…? Source: IMF database Source: WRI CAIT database Emissions per capita 1990-2008: Annex I vs. non-Annex I

  6. What graduation? Annex II Annex I LDCs RIDCs NICs Other DCs Binding absolute reduction target, no financing obligations Absolute limitation targets conditional to financing No quantified commitments, optional financed NAMAs Binding absolute reduction target, financing obligations Absolute reduction or limitation targets, some financing No quantified commitments, obligatory co-funded NAMAs Source: Various publications, especially Winkler et al. (2006)

  7. Indicators • Who should mitigate and how much? • Rather scientific comparison than political negotiation as a basis of burden-sharing • Criteria: responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate? • Cumulative emissions (historical responsibility) • GDP PPP or HDI • CO2/GDP • various others • Also suggested: OECD membership, carbon intense exports, ecosystem services

  8. Discussion • What are the Russian ideas on burden-sharing / graduation? • Which indicators? Why? • Are current structures applicable: • registered NAMAs? • Non-binding pledges under the Copenhagen agreement? • How feasible is it politically that AWG-DP will establish a system with meaningful participation by all key players – graduation part of this?

  9. Thank you! Contact: anna.korppoo@fni.no

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