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2013 Spring Weather Outlook

2013 Spring Weather Outlook. MARAC Region V Meeting April 24, 2013. Cindy Bean Meteorologist National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Joaquin Valley – Hanford CA weather.gov/ hanford. Rainfall Season 2012 – 2013. Where do we stand?. Seasonal Rainfall

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2013 Spring Weather Outlook

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  1. 2013Spring Weather Outlook MARAC Region V Meeting April 24, 2013 Cindy Bean Meteorologist National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Joaquin Valley – Hanford CA weather.gov/hanford

  2. Rainfall Season 2012 – 2013 Where do we stand? • Seasonal Rainfall • Fresno and Bakersfield – 51% of normal • Merced – 65% of normal • Since Jan 1 • Merced and Fresno - near 32% of normal • Bakersfield – 57% of normal • April • Merced – 57% of normal • Fresno and Bakersfield – 11% of normal

  3. Since Jan 1 Near to slightly above Normal Well Below Normal

  4. Since April 1 Above Normal Well Below Normal

  5. Current 5-Station Index Precipitation Amount CURRENT YEAR Day of The Year

  6. Current Reservoir Levels

  7. Seasonal Water Supply Volume Forecast Jan 21 2013

  8. Winter Predictionsfor 2013 …What about El Nino? “ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.” --NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  9. Sea Surface TemperaturesJanuary 2013 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Slightly Below Normal

  10. Sea Surface Temperatures - April Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Slightly negative temperature anomalies have gradually warmed to near normal along the Equator – clearly an ENSO neutral state

  11. 2013 Spring Predictions April 26-May 2 Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability Strongly Favors Warmer than normal Favors Dry

  12. 2013 Spring Predictions May 2013 Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability Favors Warmer than normal Equal Chances

  13. 2013 Spring/Summer Predictions May through July Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability Normal Normal

  14. Potential Impacts • Reservoirs/Water Supply • Below normal snowpack • Lower than normal Spring Runoff • Less water for agriculture • Drought • Drought will persist or intensify • Last year was dry in many parts of the region. The current water year is below normal over much of the area. The threat of long-term drought impacts is real.

  15. Potential Impacts • Fire Weather • Fuels curing earlier than normal • Fire season starting 4 weeks earlier than normal • The possibility of far drier than average fuels coupled with above normal temperatures may result in above normal large fire potential by mid-June into July. • Current Fuels are approaching critical. 10 hour Live FM at 78%. 1000 hr with large death rate.

  16. For More Information… • Climate Prediction Center (outlooks updated 3rd Thursday of every month) • cpc.ncep.noaa.gov • NWS Hanford Web Page • weather.gov/hanford • Find us on Facebook and Twitter! • Don Florence – dflorence@mariposacounty.org • Mariposa County OES – 209-742-1306

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