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EFCC Weather Outlook

EFCC Weather Outlook. 5 June 2012. Fire Season Key Elements. From NWCC. Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August

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EFCC Weather Outlook

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  1. EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012

  2. Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC • Below normal snowpack • Early snowmelt • Long term drought • Below normal June rainfall • Dry July / August • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

  3. Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC • Below normal snowpack • Early snowmelt • Long term drought • Below normal June rainfall • Dry July / August • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

  4. Snow Water Equivalent By River Basin

  5. Snow Water Equivalent By River Basin

  6. Snow Water Equivalent By River Basin

  7. Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC • Below normal snowpack - YES • Early snowmelt • Long term drought • Below normal June rainfall • Dry July / August • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

  8. Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC • Below normal snowpack - YES • Early snowmelt • Long term drought • Below normal June rainfall • Dry July / August • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

  9. Snow Water Equivalent Mt. Hood Test Site Last Year So Far Average

  10. Snow Water Equivalent Cascade Summit (Central Cascades) Last Year Average This Year

  11. Snow Water Equivalent Wolf Creek (NE Mountains) Last Year Average This Year

  12. Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC • Below normal snowpack - YES • Early snowmelt - YES • Long term drought • Below normal June rainfall • Dry July / August • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

  13. Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC • Below normal snowpack - YES • Early snowmelt - YES • Long term drought • Below normal June rainfall • Dry July / August • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

  14. Drought Monitor May 29th, 2012

  15. Drought Monitor May 29th, 2012

  16. Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC • Below normal snowpack - YES • Early snowmelt - YES • Long term drought – YES (South Central) • Below normal June rainfall • Dry July / August • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

  17. Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC • Below normal snowpack - YES • Early snowmelt - YES • Long term drought – YES (South Central) • Below normal June rainfall • Dry July / August • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

  18. Precipitation Probability June 2012

  19. Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC • Below normal snowpack - YES • Early snowmelt - YES • Long term drought – YES (South Central) • Below normal June rainfall - No • Dry July / August • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

  20. Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC • Below normal snowpack - YES • Early snowmelt - YES • Long term drought – YES (South Central) • Below normal June rainfall - No • Dry July / August • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

  21. Precipitation Probability July, August, September

  22. Temperature Probability July, August, September

  23. Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC • Below normal snowpack - YES • Early snowmelt - YES • Long term drought – YES (South Central) • Below normal June rainfall - No • Dry July / August - YES • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

  24. Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC • Below normal snowpack - YES • Early snowmelt - YES • Long term drought – YES (South Central) • Below normal June rainfall - No • Dry July / August - YES • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

  25. Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC • Below normal snowpack - YES • Early snowmelt - YES • Long term drought – YES (South Central) • Below normal June rainfall - No • Dry July / August - YES • Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) • Remains to be Seen

  26. El Niño/La Niña Predictions Various Forecasting Techniques El Niño La Niña

  27. El Niño/La Niña Predictions Various Forecasting Techniques

  28. ENSO Neutral Summers 500mb Height

  29. ENSO Neutral Summers 500mb Height Anomaly

  30. ENSO Neutral Summers 850mb Temperature Anomaly

  31. Analog Years El Niño/La Niña

  32. Analog Years El Niño/La Niña Paul Werth 1951 20091963 1976

  33. Analog Years El Niño/La Niña Paul Werth 1951 20091963 1976 Pete Parsons 1951 19722009

  34. Analog Years El Niño/La Niña Paul Werth 1951 20091963 1976 Pete Parsons 1951 19722009 Jim Little 1963 19722001 2009 1975 2000

  35. EFCC Weather Outlook Bottom Line

  36. EFCC Weather Outlook Bottom Line • In many respects a rather “average” summer • Driest areas east of Cascades • Driest months August and September • Best chances for dry lightning August and September

  37. EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012 Questions? Contact jlittle@odf.state.or.us

  38. EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012 Questions? Contact jlittle@odf.state.or.us

  39. EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012 Questions? Contact jlittle@odf.state.or.us

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