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Population Dynamics throughout History: Insights from Famous Thinkers

Explore insights on population growth and economics from historical figures like Marshall, Ibn Khaldun, and Swift. Learn how ideas on population have evolved over the centuries.

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Population Dynamics throughout History: Insights from Famous Thinkers

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  1. Martin Handford, Where´s Wally? PG-CST&PG-SER SER 457 e CST 310: População, Espaço e Ambiente 1. Existe um Problema Populacional ?

  2. Existe um Problema Populacional?

  3. Alfred Marshall (1920, book IV, ch IV, paragraph 3): “The study of the growth of population is often spoken of as though it were a modern one. But in a more or less vague form it has occupied the attention of thoughtful men in all ages of the world.” • Recomendações de Marshall • Use mathematics as shorthand language, rather than as an engine of inquiry. • (2) Keep to them till you have done. • (3) Translate into English. • (4) Then illustrate by examples that are important in real life • (5) Burn the mathematics. • (6) If you can't succeed in 4, burn 3. Marshall, A. 1920. Principles of Economics, eight edition. London: MacMillan. Alfred Marshall(18842–1924) 

  4. AbūZayd ‘Abdar-RaḥmānibnMuḥammadibnKhaldūnal-Ḥaḍramī 27 May 1332 – 17 March 1406 “When civilization [population] increases, the available labor again increases. In turn, luxury again increases in correspondence with the increasing profit, and the customs and needs of luxury increase. Crafts are created to obtain luxury products. The value realized from them increases, and, as a result, profits are again multiplied in the town. Production there is thriving even more than before. And so it goes with the second and third increase. All the additional labor serves luxury and wealth, in contrast to the original labor that served the necessity of life.” IbnKhaldun(1332–1406), from Muqaddimah

  5. As Viagens de Gulliver Richard Redgrave [Victoria and Albert Museum] Jonathan Swift (Dublin, 30 de Novembro de 1667 – Irlanda, 19 de Outubro de 1745) "I have been assured by a very knowing American of my acquaintance in London, that a young healthy child well nursed is at a year old a most delicious nourishing and wholesome food..." (1726) Para aqueles que "regard people as commodities" Satirista, Escritor, Panfletista, Clérigo

  6. Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat Nicolas de Condorcet,Marquês de Condorcet (17 de Setembro de 1743 – 28 de Março de 1794) Filósofo, Matemático, Cientista Social, Político, Ativista, Liberal Outlines of an historical view of the progress of the human mind, being a posthumous work of the late M. de Condorcet. (Translated from the French.) (Philadelphia: M. Carey, 1796)

  7. William Godwin (Wisbech, 3 de Março de 1756 – Londres, 7 de Abril de 1836) Jornalista, Novelista e Filósofo Político

  8. Thomas Robert Malthus (Rookery, próximo a Guilford, 13 de Fevereiro de 1766 – Bath, 23 de Dezembro de 1834) "The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man" Reverendo da Igreja Anglicana, Professor, Economista e Demógrafo

  9. Cornucopianos X Malthusianos Boomesters X Doomesters  - Abundantiacom a Cornucópia - (ca.1630)   Rubens

  10. Recursos X Limites Recursos X População Economia X Pobreza Crescimento, Desenvolvimento e Desigualdade Na Gênese da Questão Ambiente e População

  11. Tratado para entender o Paradoxo: Crescimentoda Economia e o Progresso Tecnológico e Aumento da Desigualdade e da Pobreza

  12. Henry Fairfield Osborn, Jr. (Princeton, New Jersey, 15 de Janeiro de 1887 — New York, 16 de setembro de 1969) Naturalista e Conservacionista, Publica Our Plundered Planet em 1948

  13. William Vogt (15 de Maio de 1902 — 16 de Julho de 1968) Ecólogo , ornitólogo, Publica Road to Survival em 1948

  14. Josué Apolônio de Castro (Recife, 5 de setembro de 1908 - Paris, 24 de setembro de 1973 ) 1946 1967 1952 Médico, Professor, Antopólogo, Geógrafo, Sociólogo, Escritor, Humanista, Ativista e Bahiano.

  15. “The road to survival, therefore, does not lie in the neo-Malthusian prescriptions to eliminate surplus people, nor in birth control, but in the effort to make everybody on the face of the earth productive. Hunger and misery are not caused by the presence of too many people in the world, but rather by having few to produce and many to feed. The neo-Malthusian doctrine of a dehumanized economy, which preaches that the weak and the sick should be left to die, which would help the starving to die more quickly, and which even goes to the extreme of suggesting that medical and sanitary resources should not be made available to the more miserable populations – such policies merely reflect the mean and egotistical sentiments of people living well, terrified by the disquieting presence of those who are living badly. The world, fortunately, will not let itself be carried away by such defeatist and disintegrative conceptions. In spite of their scientific aura, these ideas cannot show us a road to survival. They can only point the way to death, to revolution and to war – the road to perdition.” (da Edição Inglesa de 1952, p. 312)

  16. Paul Ralph Ehrlich (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Maio de 1932) Biólogo Conservacionista, Publica The Population Bomb em 1968

  17. Norman Ernest Borlaug (1914-2009)

  18. Rachel Carson (1907-1964) 1962

  19. Ester Boserup (Copenhagen, Maio de 1910, Setembro de 1999) Economista, Escritora,

  20. FONTE: human landscapes - a blog about people and nature http://ecotope.org/blogs/post/2011/01/11/Saved!-by-Ester-Boserup.aspx Boserup, E. 1965. The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure. London: Allen & Unwin Boserup, E. 1976. Environment, Population, and Technology in Primitive Societies. Population and Development Review, 2, 21-36. Boserup, E. 1981. Population and Technological Change: A Study of Long Term Trends. Chicago:University of Chicago Press

  21. FONTE: human landscapes - a blog about people and nature http://ecotope.org/blogs/post/2011/01/11/Saved!-by-Ester-Boserup.aspx

  22. 1966(1925) Alexander V. Chayanov(1888 –1937) 

  23. Matthew Connelly Historiador

  24. Garrett James Hardin ( 21 de Abril de 1915 – 14 de Setembro de 2003) “The population problem has no technical solution; it requires a fundamental extension in morality.” HARDIN, G. The Tragedy of the Commons. Science Magazine, Vol: 162. 1968. Ecólogo, Microbiologista, autor do Ensaio de 1968The Tragedy of the Commons

  25. Elinor Ostrom (Los Angeles, 7 de Agosto de 1933 – Junho de 2012) Cientista Política, Mulher, Fora do mainstream(economia), Nobel de Economia em 2009

  26. Distribuição de Renda – Mundo (1992) A Taça de Champagne • ‘Os 20% mais ricos se apropriam de 82,7% da renda. A concentração de renda é absolutamente escandalosa...Não haverá tranquilidade no planeta enquanto a economia for organizada em função de um terço da população mundial.’ Fonte: Dowbor, L. et alli. Crise e Oportunidade, p. 10. Jan/2010. (Slide Original: Dirce Koga)

  27. 1% + Ricos 20 % Riqueza Desigualdade Renda ~1900 2010 Distribuição de Riqueza (2010) – Países Industrializados Kuznet – Curva Teórica Ilustração para ‘Curva de Piketty’- Olhando para o 1%

  28. Com vocês agora, afinal … Existe um Problema Populacional?

  29. 1. Referências? Eduardo L. G. Rios-Neto, A relação entre população e desenvolvimento 15 anos após a Conferência do Cairo.In. Brasil, 15 anos após a Conferência do Cairo. ABEP, 2009 Desrochers, Pierre; Hoffbauer, Christine. The Post War Intellectual Roots of the Population Bomb. Fairfield Osborn's Our Plundered Planet and William Vogt's Road to Survival in Retrospect. Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development, vol. 1, issue 3 (Summer 2009), pp. 73-97. Matthew Connelly.Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population, Harvard University Press, 2008.

  30. Jonathan Swift,A Modest Proposal For Preventing the Children of Poor People in Ireland from Being a Burden to Their Parents or Country, and for Making Them Beneficial to the Public, 1729. Thomas Robert Malthus,An essay on the principle of population, 1798. Marie-Jean-Antoine-Nicolas Caritat, Marquis de Condorcet,Outlines of an historical view of the progress of the human mind, 1795. William Godwin,Enquiry concerning Political Justice, and its Influence on General Virtue and Happiness, 1793.

  31. Cornucopianos - Alegoria de Fortuna - (1658) Salvator Rosa  - Abundantiacom a Cornucópia - (ca.1630)   Rubens

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